burgertime Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yeah guys. I was just wondering what the RPM model (local WSI one) was doing since it seems it has been trying to save KCAE for a couple days now possibly with colder temps aloft. Thanks for your responses! Edit. If someone from the Midlands could call into the radio show tonight (I hope you call Robert btw!) please do so. I would call; but DT is still sour towards me currently.. lol For anyone interested in using the bufkit application, you can download it from here: http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/tools/bufkit/ At first; it is a bit annoying to set up if you're new. They have instructional videos for it etc. lol whoops I thought you said RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seasonsoflove Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 For anyone interested in using the bufkit application, you can download it from here: http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/tools/bufkit/ At first; it is a bit annoying to set up if you're new. They have instructional videos for it etc. You can actually input direct URLS into the "bufget" application part of it to download new model data without having to manually get it all the time. Thanks for the link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I think he's pretty much alone on this one. We shall see. This really isn't that bad of a forecast. He is taking a few things into account. One models typically over perform on QPF vs. reality. Second as has been discussed ratios may not be 10:1 given how 850's are not really that cold. Then you factor in melting on the ground (though I think this is usually over analyzed) and you end up with MBY being in 3-6. Fine, if you bust and CLT gets 8 it's not a huge bust. 4 inches of snow shut down the city so it isn't like he is calling for a dusting. Impact will still be high, he stays safe with his call and everyone wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raine1212 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 http://i.imgur.com/8RERzJK.png Here's the latest NAM/GFS avg on the meteogram for us on the ZR. And we may clock in at 1.7 inches... but KCAE comes in at an even worse 1.9, with even higher predicted wind speeds on the tail end of the heaviest accumulation. Looks like a perfect storm. Hi neighbor, i am ready as I can be, thanks to everyone here I started getting ready on Saturday. Again thanks everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Lawd have mercy at the deform band on the NAVGEM! Notice the timestamp on this frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Latest news14 fururecast. Check out @WeatherCrum's Tweet: https://twitter.com/WeatherCrum/status/433027954902171648 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Copy the link from the url bar at the top of your browser when you click on the data you want. Within the bufkit program if you click the tab in the right hand corner that says get data a black box will pop up. Middle of the way down you will see the alphabet. Just click on D which is blank, put your cursor in the box, and click the paste button at the top. Then click on the "get data" button. It should show up under your airport code when you refresh. Hope that helps! I appreciate the help...for whatever reason its not working... TY tho! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Cman! I like your map, and ordinarily I'd go with it, because of all the liquid totals being toss around...you never get that much moisture to freeze... I'm just not that lucky.... but if this is a good cad, I mean a good cad, it could blow by you and be off waving before you can get turned around good, lol. And anyway those folks down there will string you up in effigy if you don't throw them a bone Best put in a chance of zr/ip for safety's sake, lol. I'm going with .3 in rain, .5 in zr, .5/7 in ip/ and if the comma finds me at the end, .5/.7 in snow, lol. And if mine doesn't work out, I'll go with yours, lol. T Oh, no worries! I'm mentioning the possibility of some freezing rain in the forecast. We're right on the line with this event, even if we are 3-5 degrees cooler than forecast. It'll be close for many people in my viewing area... The quick swing of snow could be nice Thursday morning, but we'll see if it actually makes it this far south. All I know is that I'll be watching that thermometer very carefully Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Lawd have mercy at the deform band on the NAVGEM! Notice the timestamp on this frame. The usually supressed model with a strong deform band that far west is interesting. Whoever gets under that band is gonna make a run at 12"+ I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 BTW Ryan Maue tweeted out earlier, WSI created the "RPM" moniker, on WxBell it's the WRF ARW, for subscribers in case you wanted to look at it instead of relying WSI postings, it's located here: http://models.weatherbell.com/wrf/wrf_nc.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Oh, no worries! I'm mentioning the possibility of some freezing rain in the forecast. We're right on the line with this event, even if we are 3-5 degrees cooler than forecast. It'll be close for many people in my viewing area... The quick swing of snow could be nice Thursday morning, but we'll see if it actually makes it this far south. All I know is that I'll be watching that thermometer very carefully Wednesday. Ok, good. I like you and don't want to see you covered in sticky feathers, lol. Yep, this one is a fun one. And all riding on a cad that won't set up for a while. Did you use to have this much fun in Fla? T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I just took a look at the Euro ensemble mean and it's definitely a tad east of the op, but not by much. The low still veers inland a bit. The control run was really amped up and further west than the op. With that being said, the Euro is the NW outlier at this point, so it is probably logical to conclude that the expected storm track is east of the Euro, perhaps tracking up through the Pamlico Sound or somewhere around there. We'll see. Small differences in the track will mean a lot with this one. I'm still paranoid about the pingers, though. I actually disagree with this. The Euro ensemble means had SLP near that of the control and op runs. All inland slightly from the coast. Secondly, it's not an outlier. The CMC has a very similar track and climatology favors the Euro track more than the eastward runs of the NAM and GFS. Thirdly, the NAM is darn near useless beyond 24 hours, so it doesn't pay to even look at it for this Wed/Thurs. Fourth, the Euro and 90% of it's ensemble members align with the op run. Consistency! Hard to bet against that. With tonight's runs, I would like to see two things: 1. NAM trends slightly more west, not much, but enough, to begin it's alignment with the CMC and Euro. 2. The GFS should start picking up on the QPF since the jet dynamics are there along with excellent DPVA and frontogenetical forcing. A lot of dynamics. Moisture will find a way. Just some thoughts before the models come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 lol whoops I thought you said RGEM My guess is you are going to have some mixing issues in CLT proper burger, I would not be surpised to see 6" of SN there through Wednesday night before it starts mixing with IP. Question is how much QPF gets eaten by plates, which is ultimately dependent on the slp track, and ability for heights to crash on the backside. The cold core conveyer will likely setup just to your wnw, Marion to Mt. Airy, that area will stay all SN, solidly inside the 1300m 1000-850mb thick line, flirting but right around the inflection point of 1540m 850-700mb thick. Even if you do mix or change over to IP dominant type for 4-6hrs, this will end as SN for you, 6" front end, 1" IP, ? SN on the backside, maybe another 4-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 My guess is you are going to have some mixing issues in CLT proper burger, I would not be surpised to see 6" of SN there through Wednesday night before it starts mixing with IP. Question is how much QPF gets eaten by plates, which is ultimately dependent on the slp track, and ability for heights to crash on the backside. The cold core conveyer will likely setup just to your wnw, Marion to Mt. Airy, that area will stay all SN, solidly inside the 1300m 1000-850mb thick line, flirting but right around the inflection point of 1540m 850-700mb thick. Even if you do mix or change over to IP dominant type for 4-6hrs, this will end as SN for you, 6" front end, 1" IP, ? SN on the backside, maybe another 4-6". Thanks, I've been on the wrong side of that sleet but I like that we get the front end then back end (that's what she said?) on this one. I can do with a snow sleet sandwich. I think getting close to that 8 inch mark is a safe bet that GSP is hedging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Quick question as I am sitting here in Columbia for training. I was in the middle of my AIT(Army job training) in January 2004 in Augusta when I experienced the worst ice storm of my life! Trees and power lines down all over Ft Gordon. Is the setup that occured then what we are looking at now with this storm? I remember a lot of mets talking about a cold wedge that came in from the east much like this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 http://www.examiner.com/article/snowstorm-thoughts-for-carolinas current thinking as far as this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Van Denton seems to be going a little conservative. Not a huge surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I actually disagree with this. The Euro ensemble means had SLP near that of the control and op runs. All inland slightly from the coast. Secondly, it's not an outlier. The CMC has a very similar track and climatology favors the Euro track more than the eastward runs of the NAM and GFS. Thirdly, the NAM is darn near useless beyond 24 hours, so it doesn't pay to even look at it for this Wed/Thurs. Fourth, the Euro and 90% of it's ensemble members align with the op run. Consistency! Hard to bet against that. With tonight's runs, I would like to see two things: 1. NAM trends slightly more west, not much, but enough, to begin it's alignment with the CMC and Euro. 2. The GFS should start picking up on the QPF since the jet dynamics are there along with excellent DPVA and frontogenetical forcing. A lot of dynamics. Moisture will find a way. Just some thoughts before the models come out. I think a track right along the coast or just off shore is actually probably more favored with the substantial CAD wedge in place. The high is retreating, but the fact that diabatic processes are going to occur while it is in a classical stage and then evolve to more of a hybrid would certainly argue against a coastal plain track in my opinion. I dont think slides way off shore, but I do think the operational ECMWF is a bit too far inland. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_TarHeel Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Van Denton seems to be going a little conservative. Not a huge surprise. I don't think anyone wants to get accused of crying wolf in the small chance this doesn't play up to what we are thinking. It's a safe estimation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 SREF looks wetter to me. Bet you the snowfall mean is off the charts for CLT west. Take that back not quite as wet. Didn't have that comma head like the SREF 15z had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 SREF looks wetter to me. Bet you the snowfall mean is off the charts for CLT west.looks maybe a tad wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Will the 0z tonight runs have all the players on the field? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This alert was generated by the National Weather ServiceEMWIN (Emergency Managers Weather Information Network)from messages received by DaculaWeather.com EMWIN server.NOUS42 KWNO 110130ADMNFDSENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGENWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD0129Z TUE FEB 11 2014THE 00Z NAM HAS STARTED ON-TIME...WITH 14 ALASKAN...32CANADIAN...69 CONUS...1 CARIBBEAN AND 7 MEXICAN RAOB REPORTS AVBLFOR INGEST.00Z NAM RAOB RECAP...71823/YAH - PURGED TEMP/RH 851-848 MB...SUPER-ADIABATIC76654/MZL - 10142...GROUND EQUIPMENT FAILURE76692/HYY - 10158...FLIGHT EQUIPMENT FAILUREA REGIONAL CRITICAL WEATHER DAY...CWD...WILL BE DECLARED AT1200Z TUE FEB 11 2014 AND EXTEND THROUGH 1800Z FRI FEB 14...FORPOSSIBLE IMPACTS OF AN UPCOMING WINTER STORM IN THE SOUTH ANDEAST.OREILLY/SDM/NCO/NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I actually disagree with this. The Euro ensemble means had SLP near that of the control and op runs. All inland slightly from the coast. Secondly, it's not an outlier. The CMC has a very similar track and climatology favors the Euro track more than the eastward runs of the NAM and GFS. Thirdly, the NAM is darn near useless beyond 24 hours, so it doesn't pay to even look at it for this Wed/Thurs. Fourth, the Euro and 90% of it's ensemble members align with the op run. Consistency! Hard to bet against that. With tonight's runs, I would like to see two things: 1. NAM trends slightly more west, not much, but enough, to begin it's alignment with the CMC and Euro. 2. The GFS should start picking up on the QPF since the jet dynamics are there along with excellent DPVA and frontogenetical forcing. A lot of dynamics. Moisture will find a way. Just some thoughts before the models come out. fwiw jb agrees with your thinking. He thinks the euro will trend farther west like the control. By the way the control hits us with almost 1.5 qpf! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 SREF looks wetter to me. Bet you the snowfall mean is off the charts for CLT west. Take that back not quite as wet. Didn't have that comma head like the SREF 15z had. A tad colder and wetter.. I figure this is from the outlier drier members dropping away as we head toward a consensus here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Here comes the ALWAYS accurate NAM...heheheh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I think a track right along the coast or just off shore is actually probably more favored with the substantial CAD wedge in place. The high is retreating, but the fact that diabatic processes are going to occur while it is in a classical stage and then evolve to more of a hybrid would certainly argue against a coastal plain track in my opinion. I dont think slides way off shore, but I do think the operational ECMWF is a bit too far inland. We shall see. Agreed with this. I would argue for a more offshore track, in fact, an energy transfer could happen given the expected strength of the wedge, and the fact the baroclinic zone is expected to set up offshore sometime late tonight into tomorrow sets the stage for that to occur. really really difficult to scour out a classic wedge even this far south, especially with expected N to NNE winds 15-20 gusts to 30 mph at times, and the continuous precipitation should proclude any real SFC warming with such a fetch from that arctic high expected to be 1035'ish or greater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Probably the last set of model runs that matter and, lo and behold, 0z NAM -- even at only 9 hour -- showing a slower and stronger southern energy vs. 18z and 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colawx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Agreed with this. I would argue for a more offshore track, in fact, an energy transfer could happen given the expected strength of the wedge, and the fact the baroclinic zone is expected to set up offshore sometime late tonight into tomorrow sets the stage for that to occur. really really difficult to scour out a classic wedge even this far south, especially with expected N to NNE winds 15-20 gusts to 30 mph at times, and the continuous precipitation should proclude any real SFC warming with such a fetch from that arctic high expected to be 1035'ish or greater. Stormsfury, you nailed the icestorm in 2004. Are you thinking this is similar for the midlands? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The 21Z SREF plumes are out. The mean for KHKY is just under 10 inches!! Wow!! Most of the low outliers have vanished: all but three show 5 inches or more. Simply amazing. This has such potential to be epic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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