JoshM Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Updated GSP Snowfall Map http://www.weather.gov/images/gsp/brief/STSStormTotalSnow.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 On 2/10/2014 at 9:28 PM, Lookout said: As I said last night or early this morning, I am really concerned about it because there looks to be substained winds of 15 to 20 knots, with higher gusts obviously. That is not what you want to say the least with so much freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Wow, NWS GSP just posted this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 On 2/10/2014 at 9:39 PM, JoshM said: Updated GSP Snowfall Map http://www.weather.gov/images/gsp/brief/STSStormTotalSnow.png LOL.. they have a pretty clear snow/sleet line there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 SREF plumes now have a 10" mean for KCLT. Several members into the 20's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 On 2/10/2014 at 9:43 PM, Wow said: LOL.. they have a pretty clear snow/sleet line there Looks to cut right through Uptown or just to the SE. Going to be interested where that battle zone sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The 18z GFS looks drier/weaker, FWIW. (Not that it still isn't a big hit). It's colder, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avianman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Brad Panovich's map: https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/432976484546772993/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The 18z gfs looks to keep a lot more people in the snow game. 850's further east this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Listen up everyone......keep this thread on topic. I'm tired of the one liners, imby posts and whining because your opinions differ from the nws. I will be issuing warnings/timeouts/suspensions that is I will be issuing them until my power goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 2M temps look a little colder this run again...Good lord, maybe I just give and throw out a 33/34 and heavy rain? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 You know it's The Big One when the "dry, weak" 18z GFS run gives much of the state 1"+ QPF. It does screw everyone north of DC, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 On 2/10/2014 at 9:44 PM, Queencitywx said: SREF plumes now have a 10" mean for KCLT. Several members into the 20's. I think if mixing turn out not to be an issue....we make 10 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 On 2/10/2014 at 9:49 PM, deltadog03 said: 2M temps look a little colder this run again...Good lord, maybe I just give and throw out a 33/34 and heavy rain? LOL Chris, KCHS reduced low temps to 30 locally here on Tuesday night with Ice Storm warnings now. I think they're using a wedge scheme for temps which is several degrees lower than NAM/GFS temp guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 On 2/10/2014 at 9:57 PM, fritschy said: snow totals look awful conservative considering all the models. 4-5 in the mtns. gsp is conservative and just came out with 6-9 for the area. and if the deformation band sets up over wnc for a couple of hours your looking at snow rates of 1-3 inches per hour. Agreed that it looks conservative. Here's a quote from the GSP afternoon disco: EXPECT SNOW TOTALS FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES SOUTH OF I-85 TO 6 TO 10 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH. ICE ACCUMS OF A QUARTER INCH ARE EXPECTED GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM TOCCOA TO ANDERSON TO YORK AND MONROE. THAT SAID...AMOUNTS COULD END UP HIGHER...BUT DO NOT WANT TO GO THAT HIGH YET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 On 2/10/2014 at 9:46 PM, buckeyefan1 said: Listen up everyone......keep this thread on topic. I'm tired of the one liners, imby posts and whining because your opinions differ from the nws. I will be issuing warnings/timeouts/suspensions that is I will be issuing them until my power goes That makes two of us. Folks, READ before you ask a question too. Chances are your question has been not only answered but answered numerous times by numerous people. The fact that some are too lazy to take the time to read is annoying to everyone and we all are about tired of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 On 2/10/2014 at 9:46 PM, avianman said: Brad Panovich's map: https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/432976484546772993/photo/1 what is he looking at to come up with that map? More snow in Greensboro than the mtns? The euro and its ensembles continue to paint 10-12 for the mtns. Not sure how he has a map like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 On 2/10/2014 at 9:57 PM, Stormsfury said: Chris, KCHS reduced low temps to 30 locally here on Tuesday night with Ice Storm warnings now. I think they're using a wedge scheme for temps which is several degrees lower than NAM/GFS temp guidance. Thanks Mike, thats what I am hedging my bets and forecast on. Still have .25" ZR + for MCN NAM and GFS and 4KM NAM area colder a little bit on 18z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Looking at the BUFKIT, for those nearer the coast, the NAM at 18z is showing 1.3" zr for FLO and .63" zr for MYR. ILM is showing .84" zr and FAY is showing 1.25" zr on top of a little over 2" of snow. Definitely an outlier on what it's showing coastally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 On 2/10/2014 at 10:02 PM, franklin NCwx said: what is he looking at to come up with that map? More snow in Greensboro than the mtns? The euro and its ensembles continue to paint 10-12 for the mtns. Not sure how he has a map like that. Here is Brad's justification. He's not walking lock-step with the models. I respect his views and skills, but I hope he's wrong, on the low side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pbrown85 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Isn't GSP usually on the low side of their snow totals maps most of the time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 On 2/10/2014 at 9:49 PM, deltadog03 said: 2M temps look a little colder this run again...Good lord, maybe I just give and throw out a 33/34 and heavy rain? LOL I've given up hope for much of any frozen precip outside of the chance of a few wrap around flurries Wednesday night. I forecasted for the chief tonight and went 35-37 and heavy rain and breezy NE winds... Yay. Team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 On 2/10/2014 at 10:02 PM, franklin NCwx said: what is he looking at to come up with that map? More snow in Greensboro than the mtns? The euro and its ensembles continue to paint 10-12 for the mtns. Not sure how he has a map like that. He actually dropped totals from 4-8" in mtns to 4-5"...he's "not seeing high totals", his reasoning goes back to his argument for ratios...if ratios get close to 10:1 he's going to bust. He doesn't think so though because lots of sleet/ice in soundings still. All this is per his tweets btw. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 GSP will do fine folks. They usually will up there totals closer to the storm. Most of you are in a Watch so don't worry. The NWS knows what they are doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 On 2/10/2014 at 10:07 PM, Jon said: He actually dropped totals from 4-8" in mtns to 4-5"...he's "not seeing high totals", his reasoning goes back to his argument for ratios...if ratios get close to 10:1 he's going to bust. He doesn't think so though because lots of sleet/ice in soundings still. All this is per his tweets btw. We'll see.but that's a problem there are no sleet or freezing rain soundings here in the mountains. if anything there's a greater chance of mixing in Greensboro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Here's one snapshot in time (at hour 57) of the snow depth off the 18Z GFS. That lee side minimum is troubling. I don't think it's realistic based off the most likely path of this storm, but I'd still not rather see that lull in precipitation amounts between the mountains and the rest of the piedmont show up on the modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 On 2/10/2014 at 10:02 PM, franklin NCwx said: what is he looking at to come up with that map? More snow in Greensboro than the mtns? The euro and its ensembles continue to paint 10-12 for the mtns. Not sure how he has a map like that. don't know GSP just updated they're maps and they give us 6-10 and said they may have update the snow to more later. models are showing a deformation band over us wednesday that could put down 1-3 inches an hour for a couple of hours. Don't know what he is looking at or not looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avianman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 On 2/10/2014 at 10:06 PM, calculus1 said: Here is Brad's justification. He's not walking lock-step with the models. I respect his views and skills, but I hope he's wrong, on the low side. I think he's pretty much alone on this one. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 On 2/10/2014 at 10:06 PM, pbrown85 said: Isn't GSP usually on the low side of their snow totals maps most of the time? yes very conservative and said they may have to up from 6-10 later. they said they don't want to go there yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_TarHeel Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 On 2/10/2014 at 10:06 PM, calculus1 said: Here is Brad's justification. He's not walking lock-step with the models. I respect his views and skills, but I hope he's wrong, on the low side. Yea but there have been plenty of other meteorologist who respectfully disagree. I'm erring on the side that I have lived in WNC my entire life and that I am taking my gut. We're getting slammed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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