burgertime Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Burger, even colder here in GA at 2m vs the 12z run? Well it's weird the 2m line is bowing out west in GA of where it had it at 12z. It might be a tick southeast but hard to tell. Def. colder in western areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ga Snohound Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Same thing done by RAH for the same reasons. It seems good in theory but it's just too difficult with all of the different disturbances and resultant ptype and geographical differences. You put out a 3 day winter storm warning and people feel compelled to close businesses or cancel school even though it isn't warranted. Would there be any public benefit to saying "hey we have 2 winter systems within 48hrs and while there may be a window of lower impact between the 2, current uncertainty re: conditions, exact timing may yield warning criteria at any given point during this period therefore no unnecessary travel and winter emerg preparations are recommended".......This could help many politicians make a decision without risking their knecks which is really the elephant in the room re Atl etc. Those same business owners will gripe when stuck out in cold:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Good Lord -- NAM even more bullish on precip -- crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Euro thumps raleigh before bringing the freezing line into around Chapel Hill changing us to rain about 3/4 of the way through. Possible, but still seems too amped to me. We shall see. NWS Wakefield appears to agree with you. Their discussion say anything frozen is washed away by rain from the Triangle of NC north and east by Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 NAM says mostly sleet and then snow, maybe some ZR early. I hope this is correct, if it is, chance of power loss is not as high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Nice comma head showing up at hour 60 over WNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 NAM has snow in NC all the way east to I-95. 8"+ amounts by hour 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 @63 looks like good snows between AVL to CLT. This could be getting over a foot. There would be some very heavy rates between 57-63 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 850 line is squeezing in from the east on the 18z NAM vs. 12z run at 51 hours (vs. 57 on 12z). Good news, though, is that model appears to be picking up cold pool associated with upper level low, so 850s crash again at 57 hours. What is that supposed to mean? They got warmer? Colder? What? Burger: Please tell me that means colder towards I-95 in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Basically 8-12 CLT west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 NAM has snow in NC all the way east to I-95. 8"+ amounts by hour 60. Thickness and 850's would say that's not very likely. CLT is probably a raging sleet storm until hour 55 or so if you're taking the NAM verbatim. Much of what's along I95 would be a really cold rain or ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 NAM looks even juicier on this run......crazy. This is probably one of the most well represented CADs I've seen on a forecast map in a really long time. Looks absolutely perfect for north Georgia and the SC upstate. NAM has this storm really ripping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Holy crap foot snow fall showing up over CLT as it's pulling out. Probably more like 8 inches if there is a bunch of sleet to start but good lord. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterhawk Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Still very confusing. Look as if ATL will get nothing they way you guys have the maps?? The 2nd comment on the graphic saying "Do not focus on the snowfall and ice amounts as these will likely change in future forecasts." says it all.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Grain of salt anything east of CLT and south of GSP and CLT may not have anything close to this. Money zone looks to be GSP - AVL - CLT and GSO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Thickness and 850's would say that's not very likely. CLT is probably a raging sleet storm until hour 55 or so if you're taking the NAM verbatim. Much of what's along I95 would be a really cold rain or ZR. Actually soundings for charlotte are all snow through 48 hours. It looks like it might go to sleet or a mix of snow and sleet for just a couple of hours before going back to snow. Looks like anything west of charlotte stays snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Thanks bud! I haven't compared yet, but eyeballing it does look colder. Sfc a little further south this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The problem with FFCs forecast is the WW advisory inside the perimeter tonight and tomorrow which is unwarranted IMO since temps will stay above freezing even if it snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Grain of salt anything east of CLT and south of GSP and CLT may not have anything close to this. Money zone looks to be GSP - AVL - CLT and GSO. Agreed. RDU looks like a ton of sleet. 850s stay just to the west (say around Burlington). I'll take it. This would be a fun storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 WOW NAM drops the hammer as well (again). So we have the CMC, NAM and EURO in the BIG DOG camp with the GFS being the less amped outlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 CHARLOTTE, NC GREATEST SNOWFALLS IN A CALENDAR DAY 1878 2012 14.0 15-Feb 1902 12.1 7-Jan 1988 11.6 26-Feb 2004 11.0 29-Dec 1880 10.4 17-Dec 1930 10.4 2-Mar 1927 10.3 24-Mar 1983 10.0 18-Feb 1979 10.0 16-Jan 1965 10.0 2-Dec 1896 8.7 16-Feb 1969 GREATEST SNOWSTORM TOTALS 1878 2012 17.4 14-Feb 17-Feb 1902 13.3 1-Mar 2-Mar 1927 13.2 26-Feb 27-Feb 2004 15-Feb 17-Feb 1969 12.1 7-Jan 1988 11.8 29-Dec 30-Dec 1882 11.0 2-Dec 3-Dec 1896 11.0 29-Dec 1880 10.4 17-Dec 1930 10.3 24-Mar 1983 10.2 16-Jan 17-Jan 1965 If mixing can be held at bay, these records are in play. Especially the lower end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Why does BMX have a Winter Storm Warning all the way to I-20 including Birmingham and all the way to the AL border, while FFC has the Warning further north ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 No biggie on that run for Shelby, just 1.5 inches of qpf, all snow. If you didn't know better, you'd think I moved away and this was my first winter out of the area in 24 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WFDDeac Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA200 PM EST MON FEB 10 2014...HIGH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY....A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST WILLFORCE LARGE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG THE ATLANTICSEABOARD AND ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. COLD AIR ALREADY INPLACE DURING THAT TIME WILL CAUSE THIS PRECIPITATION TO FALL ASSNOW. STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE MOUNTAINS...IN ADDITION TO THEPOTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW BANDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...WILLLEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR 5 TO 8 INCHES SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONSACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE BLUE RIDGE...AND 6 TO LOCALLY 10INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 NAM looks even juicier on this run......crazy. This is probably one of the most well represented CADs I've seen on a forecast map in a really long time. Looks absolutely perfect for north Georgia and the SC upstate. NAM has this storm really ripping. 925 to 950mb temps drop to as low as -6c in atlanta and -7c in gainesville and athens northeastward. And -8c in the upstate at 925mb by 48 hours! That's 21 in atlanta, 19 in gainesville and athens, and 17 in the upstate. You won't find many wedges that are colder than that. Incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 On the 18z NAM, 2m dew point temps never get above 30 from I-95 west. This is an east shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 2M temps did continue to cool this run, thank you Burger! We get closer and closer to freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 925 to 950mb temps drop to as low as -6c in atlanta and -7c in gainesville and athens northeastward. And -8c in the upstate at 925mb by 48 hours! That's 21 in atlanta, 19 in gainesville and athens, and 17 in the upstate. You won't find many wedges that are colder than that. Incredible. Haven't looked at the soundings yet, but this def. looks colder at those layers and 2m here, wouldn't you agree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Jim Loznicka WGCL @jimwxgator 4m Atlanta National Weather Service says this could be the most significant ice storm to impact the area in some 10-20 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Winter Storm Watch extended into Charleston County, and inland Berkeley/Dorchester now Ice Storm Warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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