burgertime Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Another reminder to newbies, the Euro snow maps include all freezing/frozen precip, not just snow. Case in point CLT dangerously close to ZR verbatim based on thickness on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernWx2 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 !!!!!!!!!! Incredible! If this were to verify, it would shatter the Atlanta area snowfall record (8.3" at Hartsfield Airport and 10.3" at the old midtown Atlanta WBO, both occurring on January 23, 1940. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Blacksburg 2pm update: THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGHTHURSDAY AFTERNOON.* LOCATIONS...AREAS OF NORTH CAROLINA...VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 460.* TIMING...LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH 6 TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.* MAIN IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW CAN LEAD TO SLICK AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS AS SNOWFALL ACCUMULATES ON ROADWAYS. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY AND WET...AND MAY WEIGH DOWN ON TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES. SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. Triad NC is now surrounded by watches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I actually hope to get a little freezing rain or drizzle so that it covers everything and will make it hang around longer. Plus when I had my 10 inches a few years ago, the little bit of freezing rain/drizzle I got made everything that much prettier. the 12z gfs now has freezing temperatures making it all the way into eastern alabama to the west of atlanta by 12z Wed! And that's right ahead of the heaviest precipitation. You don't see freezing temps from a wedge make into alabama very often. i know most people would think i am crazy but i wouldnt mind either. love getting a nice snow and then a coating to shine it up and keep it around lol. it is going to be interesting to say the least. its behaving like a usual cad for the most part but seems like the cold air may be a bit deeper than normal which means the usual ending as freezing rain and rain for a ga storm might be a little different this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 15z sref looks great. Beefed up totals in north central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 15z sref looks great. Beefed up totals in north central NC. And 2m temps have shifted a little to east (now stay east of Raleigh). As RAH stated this is going to be a crippling storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Incredible! If this were to verify, it would shatter the Atlanta area snowfall record (8.3" at Hartsfield Airport and 10.3" at the old midtown Atlanta WBO, both occurring on January 23, 1940.Perry, In case you're not aware, the Euro snow maps show 10:1 ratio for all wintry precip. It isn't really showing nearly that much snow although it is likely a bit low on the wintry qpf due to warm bias IMO. Regardless, it is showing an incredible winter storm overall for ATL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Incredible! If this were to verify, it would shatter the Atlanta area snowfall record (8.3" at Hartsfield Airport and 10.3" at the old midtown Atlanta WBO, both occurring on January 23, 1940. You mean this one. http://www.pandemichosting.com/brax/ecmwf_snowdepth_atl_13.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 NWS RALEIGH pulls the trigger .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY... ...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE TO HIGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MID-WEEK. THE DETAILS OF THE EXACT P-TYPE AND AMOUNTS REMAIN AT LOWER CONFIDENCE... BUT ARE INCREASING WITH TIME. CLASSICAL COLD AIR DAMMING IS EXPECTED WHICH IS ONE MAIN INGREDIENTS THAT IS NEEDED FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORMS IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THIS LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE UPCOMING EVENT. A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SEPARATELY FOR THIS MAIN EVENT RUNNING FROM 1200 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 600 PM THURSDAY. A STRONG PARENT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH IS OF ARCTIC ORIGIN AND OF SUFFICIENT STRENGTH AND FAVORABLE POSITION TO DELIVER MORE THAN ADEQUATE CAA BEFORE AND DURING THE PRECIPITATION EVENT. NOTE THE DEW POINTS ARE PROJECTED TO FALL INTO THE TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS/OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE WELL INTO THE EVENT LATE WED AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN THE SUPPLY OF COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO THE DAMMING REGION. ARE VERY SIGNIFICANT COLD NOSE IS ANTICIPATED WITH TEMPS IN THE TEENS AT 1500 TO 2000 FEET PEAKING WED AND WED NIGHT. MODEL SPREAD CONTINUES TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE STORM TRACK. HOWEVER... A CURRENT PROJECTED TRACK FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY... NORTHEAST ALONG THE SC/NC COAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY IS PREFERRED IN COORDINATION WITH WPC PREFERENCES. COMBINED WITH THE CLASSICAL DAMMING EXPECTED... THIS STORM TRACK IS A PREFERRED ONE THAT CAN DELIVER CRIPPLING WINTER STORMS TO CENTRAL NC. CURRENT PROJECTIONS WOULD FAVOR MOSTLY SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST AND PIEDMONT TRIAD REGION. MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR STORM TOTALS OF 4 INCHES OR GREATER CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF MIX OR CHANGE TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AT TIMES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL WARM NOSE TRIES TO ADVANCE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. FOR THE CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AROUND ALBEMARLE AND WADESBORO NORTHEAST TO SOUTHERN PINES... RALEIGH AND ROANOKE RAPIDS... THE CURRENT THINKING IS FOR SNOW DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY MORNING... TRANSITIONING TO A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN... SLEET AND SNOW BY LATE WEDNESDAY... THEN FREEZING RAIN IN THE EVENING. MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH SIGNIFICANT ICING OF 0.25 INCH OR GREATER AFTER THE CHANGE OVER LATE WEDNESDAY. TO THE SOUTH AND EAST INCLUDING FAYETTEVILLE... CLINTON AND GOLDSBORO... EXPECT SNOW TO TRANSITION TO A MIXTURE BY AROUND LATE MORNING OR NOON WEDNESDAY... THEN FREEZING RAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FREEZING RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE WITH SIGNIFICANT ICING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IF THE TEMPERATURES FAIL TO RISE ABOVE 32 WEDNESDAY NIGHT... FREEZING RAIN MAY CREATE ICING TO BETWEEN 0.25 TO 0.50 OF AN INCH. PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES FALLING DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE PRECIPITATION FALLS. READINGS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S EXCEPT UPPER 20S IN THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FROM THERE... TEMPERATURES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD HOLD STEADY OR RISE SLOWLY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST... WITH STEADY TEMPS IN THE HEART OF THE DAMMING REGION. EXPECT TEMPS TO BE CLOSE TO 32 IN THE FAYETTEVILLE TO GOLDSBORO AREA BY 12Z THURSDAY. FOR THURSDAY... THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE TRACK OF THE MID/UPPER LOW DURING THE DAY. THIS OCCURS AFTER THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHIFTS TO THE NE OF OUR REGION BETWEEN 15Z-18Z. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC. IN THE SE... THE DRY SLOT SHOULD END MOST PRECIP BY MID TO LATE MORNING. HIGHS SHOULD REACH 35 NW TO 45 SE. ONE THING TO KEEP IN MIND... THIS SYSTEM IS STILL IN THE EARLY EVOLUTION STAGES. THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME FOR CHANGES AND THERE WILL BE SOME. HOWEVER... REMEMBER THAT THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINTER STORM CONDITIONS WED-THU. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT PRECIPIATION TYPE AND AMOUNTS... IN THE END ALMOST ALL OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE A SIGNIFICANT IF NOT CRIPPLING WINTER STORM. EVERYONE SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE ALONG WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 You mean this one. http://www.pandemichosting.com/brax/ecmwf_snowdepth_atl_13.png That's not all snow in case people are not aware. Regardless, this is looking to be truly incredible if the 12Z Euro verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 That's not all snow in case people are not aware. Regardless, this is looking to be truly incredible if the 12Z Euro verifies. Honestly you're the best, what do you think the ramifications for ATL are, people don't know what to believe, again, they're at least 20 different forecasts floating about Atlanta??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Here you go Greg. UNREAL. that is a mild understatement. i am honestly having a hard time grasping what is being spit out by the models about now, especially considering we are getting closer to the event and the amounts are ramping up. other than for this storm over the last few days, i do not recall ever seeing even a fantasy map with snowfall of 14-15"+ for n ga up thru the carolinas (not for 1.5-2" of ice anywhere). if this ends up verifying (even close) i will be stunned. (although very very happy). and if its even half these amounts i will forever bow down to the EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernWx2 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Perry, In case you're not aware, the Euro snow maps show 10:1 ratio for all wintry precip. It isn't really showing nearly that much snow although it is likely a bit low on the wintry qpf due to warm bias IMO. Regardless, it is showing an incredible winter storm overall for ATL! Thanks Larry! I was just mentioning that to friends at Facebook. I theorize a lot of that will be ice pellets.....wonder if we're about to see another February 1979 type sleet storm. Best I remember, at my home the 4.5" sleet melted down to 1.62" inches liquid.....so the 1.00 to 1.80" QPF being progged in these ECMWF 10:1 snowfall estimates would end up being 2.5 to 5" inches of sleet across metro Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Case in point CLT dangerously close to ZR verbatim based on thickness on the Euro. I thought Wow, and Grit said the EURO looked like mostly snow at CLT. How did it get so close to ZR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I thought Wow, and Grit said the EURO looked like mostly snow at CLT. How did it get so close to ZR? Basically just a degree or too from having WAA come in the mid-layers. As for now, where we are is perfect for heavy snow but it's such a fine line between a foot of heavy, wet snow and 4" of sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Temperatures are now cooling around the I40 corridor! CAD taking place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I just got home and saw the euro. I speculated about this earlier but now the euro is showing it. the euro is showing some dynamical cooling across north ga. 850mb temps actually drop between hours 51 and 54. In fact it shows a few pockets of 0c at 850mb around atlanta. So depending on exactly how good the precip rates are and how long it lasts, I wouldn't be shocked to see a changeover back to snow somewhere in north and maybe even the northern part of central ga and south carolina. Best chance would be where the heaviest precip rates meet 850mb temps that are only 1 or 2c above freezing to start with. Also, if strong rates occur before 850s get above freezing, it could delay the changeover to sleet. If either of these two things happen, there would be a lot more snow in areas that are expecting a lot of sleet. This isn't something you really can project this far in advance but I want to throw it out there because it could be a nice surprise to many. fwiw, regardless of any dynamical cooling, the euro would certainly would give me and many others in ne ga/sc more snow with the second wave due to the colder mid levels to start with. I should say though, I'm still concerned about moisture transport being interupted to the north by that heavy convection showing up on the nam/gfs and to some extend the other models across central and south ga. Maybe it will mostly be a non factor but it Sure would be disappointing if the models are failing to see this and are showing too much precip to the north on the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Here is my second call map for this storm... The EURO solution is different, and I actually tend to believe the final track will be right along the coast. I am going with very high amounts from this storm, as I believe models are underestimating the amount of energy, moisture, and dynamics with this storm. So, in my opinion, I have relatively high totals. Another important part of this storm will be the amount of energy within the deformation zone. There will be very steep lapse rates with the chance of yes, thundersnow. Rates could be up to 3 inches of snow per hour. I have a full break down on my website, http://wxjordan.com/weather/discussions/306-dangerous-winter-storm-to-impact-southeast-mid-atlantic, about this weather situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scgirl Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 CAE just issued a WSWarning from 7 pm Tues. to Noon Thurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I just got home and saw the euro. I speculated about this earlier but now the euro is showing it. the euro is showing some dynamical cooling across north ga. 850mb temps actually drop between hours 51 and 54. In fact it shows a few pockets of 0c at 850mb around atlanta. Some of the Euro snow maps floating around are insane, even if overstated! From a metro Atlanta perspective, looks like Steve, you (I know you're closer to Athens), and I are really in the sweet spot right now, which this close to the start is spectacular. I've heard that the grocery stores around Atlanta are pandemonium right now. I'm really pulling for that first wave to lay down a small blanket to get the party started for the main show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Check the banter or mountain thread .. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Ok, agree with you on some points, but are you saying this is all for naught?? The horse on z rain preparedness left the barn in 73 and now it's way too late to prepare Atl from what another 73 could do. They had their chances and they blew it. Just best hope it's only an inch or so of zr for those who get it. If it's two or more...well....just hope for sleet and snow for any major city. It's trending colder, and further south, so maybe we all get to sing and dance in the snow and sleet, and Macon, and Cola luck out with sleet, or so much rain the zr can't accrete to major levels. If the level of southern weather understanding was on display in Atl this last storm, then the level of destruction we saw in 73 will take out a lot of folks. Apparently you were there then...is there anyway to prepare folks today, for what we saw them? Prep like that takes years and years of pounding it into everyone's brains T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 18z has the phase happening @39. Just a hair faster than 12z. Looks colder to me though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Scratch that @42 it's a little warmer. We'll see if it makes a difference down the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbsolutZero Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Just my opinion but that is a much better idea. I understand what you guys do well an it still took me a minute to figure out that you guy are trying to put out advisories for two events. I possible make it one for the sake I the general public understanding better. Wished we could have done it, as I still think its clearer, but was going to be too hard to describe timing and ptypes for 2 events and 3 segmented areas. Watch still out for the second event. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 2m temps colder in GA on this run but 850's warmer. Phasing is going on a little earlier which is pulling the moisture north faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrhardin Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Wished we could have done it, as I still think its clearer, but was going to be too hard to describe timing and ptypes for 2 events and 3 segmented areas. Watch still out for the second event. Steve Same thing done by RAH for the same reasons. It seems good in theory but it's just too difficult with all of the different disturbances and resultant ptype and geographical differences. You put out a 3 day winter storm warning and people feel compelled to close businesses or cancel school even though it isn't warranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 850s temps getting awfully dicey for parts of N.C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 NAM just exploded 850 getting pulled east heavy snow over WNC. BOOM! Low deepening off the coast. 850 line is east of CLT to GSO. @57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Burger, even colder here in GA at 2m vs the 12z run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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