AbsolutZero Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Leaning toward one large winter storm warning for both events, may go pretty far south. NW GA may see 2"+ by 15Z Tues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Thanks Alan for your thoughts and I love the map! That looks like a euro/cmc/gfs blend to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Leaning toward one large winter storm warning for both events, may go pretty far south. NW GA may see 2"+ by 15Z Tues. Just my opinion but that is a much better idea. I understand what you guys do well an it still took me a minute to figure out that you guy are trying to put out advisories for two events. I possible make it one for the sake I the general public understanding better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 CNN BREAKING NEWS:Georgia gov. puts 45 counties under winter weather state of emergency as state faces second snowstorm in two weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Leaning toward one large winter storm warning for both events, may go pretty far south. NW GA may see 2"+ by 15Z Tues. Hi, I sure hope you guys combine them into one huge warning. The tv mets are spending too much time explaining that there are 2 watches with differerent coverage areas for different but slightly overlapping time windows, and not enough time talking about what's going to happen. They seem to be afraid that the first warning will expire and everyone will assume it's all over. One warning would solve that concern! Tyvm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 CNN BREAKING NEWS: Georgia gov. puts 45 counties under winter weather state of emergency as state faces second snowstorm in two weeks Heard that from a co-worker. They are actually treating the roads here before the storm this time and calling in crews from other states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Well waited long enough. Here is my first map and a brief discussion. Well this is as difficult a map as I have ever had to make due to the many zones of p-type issues and also the model uncertainty, but this is my best guess. Synopsis A complicated setup as we see several s/w in the southern branch of the jet stream interact with each other while the northern branch of the jet stream delivers a fresh supply of cold polar/arctic air into the Great Lakes and Northeast. The high pressure is not too strong, around 1032-1035mb, but it is in a classical CAD position as the storm begins and transitions to a hybrid setup as the storm wears on. Diabatic processes will help intensify the damming and drive it well into South Carolina and Georgia. Right now, I feel like low pressure along the Gulf Coast will consolidate into a stronger area of low pressure east of Savannah/Charleston by Wednesday morning. By Wednesday afternoon a trough will capture this storm and begin to strengthen it rapidly while turning it north east of Hatteras. I do not expect the low pressure center to track up the coastal plain but to stay off shore. This fits historical events, climo, takes into account model biases, and the current synoptic pattern with the wedge locked in east of the mountains. Best Chance for Heavy Snow I see the area from NE Georgia into upstate South Carolina, western NC, and central Va as standing the best chance to receive very heavy snow. I have 8-12 inches there right now, but if the storm does indeed bomb and hug the coast amounts in excess of a foot are possible. This includes Greenville, SC, Asheville, Hickory, Greensboro into Roanoke. Best Chance for Severe Ice This zone is hard to pinpoint as we have an unusually wide transition zone with this Miller A type storm. Right now from central Georgia into central SC and into east-central NC stand the best chance of seeing 0.5 to 0.75 inches of freezing rain accrual. It is possible some areas could see up to 1 inch of ice accrual, but this would be an unusually severe case. This includes areas like Athens, Columbia, Fayetteville, and Raleigh. It is possible there could be a changeover to rain Wednesday night along the I-95 corridor and east in NC, but it could be brief or hold east of I-95. As of now, I do not think Raleigh-Durham changes to plain rain. There are many transition zones and mixed precipitation areas, so look at the map and that will tell you what I think for your area. I will update this as data changes. Confidence is still somewhat low but increasing some. Wow, thanks Allan, I'm RIGHT there near the "E" in NW CLT. I'd take 8 inches and call it a win for the next two years. HPC seems to agree with you on the track of the LOW, calling shenanigans on it coming inland. I agree, if the confluence is a good as modeled, it looks like it would stay off the coast keeping mixing more south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Leaning toward one large winter storm warning for both events, may go pretty far south. NW GA may see 2"+ by 15Z Tues. Steve, great idea, it's very confusing as it is and we're all likely to get hammered anyway. Thanks for all you do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Leaning toward one large winter storm warning for both events, may go pretty far south. NW GA may see 2"+ by 15Z Tues. Sounds good to me...Will be watching in chat for y'alls thoughts. 12z GFS has me on high alert after seeing almost .85" ZR accum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 We've been getting a decent snow shower here in GSO for about half an hour now... The ground is just wet but hopefully this helps cool down the ground a bit for the real system. Yeah, pretty decent snowfall rates, too. It's just too warm out there for it to stick. It's finally starting to stick onto elevated surfaces now, so I'll call it a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'll see your GFS, and raise ya a JMA. http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_SFC_ACCUM-PRECIP_72HR.gif Love the position of the ene moving 850 low shown on the 48hr panel: http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_850_GPHTMPRH_48HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 12z euro looks colder at 2m so far through 18z tue Looks like a decent amount colder around here at 12z WED and certainly 18z WED at 2M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 BTW, guys, here are the 00z EPS mean totals. Keep in mind this might not be all-snow and certainly isn't down in the southern and eastern areas. Totals are computed by taking all wintry precip at 10:1 ratios. Just for fun... Totals are up again. GSO: 12" HKY: 11.5" CLT: 13" AVL: 12.25" RDU: 9.25" MWK: 10.25" RWI: 6.75" PGV: 5.5" FAY: 10" DAN: 11" CAE: 11.5" GSP: 13.5" ATL: 8" AHN: 13.5" RMG: 6" DNN: 6.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 Euro further south with precip, slower... same as what the 12z NAM did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 Wow.. Euro wetter and colder for W NC .. Mtns/foothills/W Piedment getting crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Zwyts reporting strength and track identical thru 54 on euro I have no way of getting maps cause I don't pay but I trust that mans judgement for sure not trying to contradict you Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Euro further south with precip, slower... same as what the 12z NAM did EURO looks like it is def further south with the 2nd wave of qpf and its colder. That has been the trend in models today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yeah, identical track but STRONGER earlier and pulls the 850 line closer to the center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Where is the snow/sleet line throughout the run? If it's wetter than 00z, I would think some areas might be approaching 2'.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Zwyts saying 72 hours has low inland of hatteras sleet up to dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Euro has surface low INLAND N.C. at 72 hours -- looks like about over Jacksonville or New Bern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 12Z Euro a truly historic storm for ATL-AHN among other areas. Gotta go! More details will be posted by others shortly I'm sure. Long live the King! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Just a quick and probably stupid question from a noob, but why hasn't the NWS in Raleigh issued a winter storm watch or anything for central NC? I live in Winston Salem right outside of GSO. Again please excuse my noob ignorance. Thanks!It's a 4th/5th period event therefore I'm sure they want to ensure there are no wild swings on the models plenty of time to digest the various qpf outputs and track of the low. I'm sure you'll prolly see one out this afternoon or by the latest tomorrow mornings issuance of the afd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwisephotog Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 MORE INFO :) Wow.. Euro wetter and colder for W NC .. Mtns/foothills/W Piedment getting crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yeah, identical track but STRONGER earlier and pulls the 850 line closer to the center When you say it pulls the 850 line closer to the center, you mean closer to the low? so...further east (the 850 line)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Euro is showing the same comma head coming through that the ukie has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Uhm. A lot more snow/sleet on the 12Z Euro for the Midlands! EDIT: still a great deal of ZR of course.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 GSP continues their trend of increasing our accumulations... now up to 5" http://www.weather.gov/images/gsp/brief/STSStormTotalSnow.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 This Euro run was a bit colder for the GSP to CLT corridor. Looks like mostly snow...and looks awesome for the NC mountains and foothills based on the mid-level low tracks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 This Euro run was a bit colder for the GSP to CLT corridor. Looks like mostly snow...and looks awesome for the NC mountains and foothills based on the mid-level low tracks you know what I like about us being close to the transition zone? rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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