The Big One - Forecast & Discussion

[CandymanColumbusGA]

I know everyone is focused on the snow/sleet/freezing rain, but you can't forget about the wind that will accompany this storm. The CAD is going to give us NE winds of at least 15 mph, if not higher in some spots. That's bad news when talking about freezing rain... Just something to ponder.

[FallsLake]

for RDU

This would be major problems if we get 5-6 inches of snow/sleet and then 3/4 inch of freezing rain. Still better than the 6z that was giving nearly 1.5 inches of freezing rain.

[burgertime]

@54 moisture incoming looks to be all snow but light. 

[NCSNOW]

Yes, main show is overnight Tues into Wed for that route

Yep, that route will most likely be impassible by Wed a.m. through Thurs/Fri if the Nam is correct: Nam is off the charts for Triad. By the Way It's snowing in Lexington NC

[burgertime]

Looks very similar to the 6z lots of moisture pivoting into NC. WNC looks primed to get a bomb. 

[Buddy1987]

Looks very similar to the 6z lots of moisture pivoting into NC. WNC looks primed to get a bomb.

Agreed man that digging is awesome on the 54 image it's all the way down to the gulf coast much better this run in that aspect.

[burgertime]

@63 heavy snow CLT west. Here is the 850 line. 

[burgertime]

CLT is too close to call on this run. It's either gonna be a ton of snow or a ton of sleet. I'm leaning more towards snow as I think the models are going to under do how cold the air is at almost all levels. 

[phil882]

When looking at model runs today, remember that the piece of energy that's causing the phasing (and significant winter storm), is still offshore in a notoriously poorly sampled region, the Gulf of Alaska. Thus, I don't think it's correct to think this forecast has "locked in" and what the current model runs show right now still could be substantially off.

[burgertime]

When looking at model runs today, remember that the piece of energy that's causing the phasing (and significant winter storm), is still offshore in a notoriously poorly sampled region, the Gulf of Alaska. Thus, I don't think it's correct to think this forecast has "locked in" and what the current model runs show right now still could be substantially off.

 

Good point as always. If our carriage turns into a pumpkin it would be meltdown central. Tomorrow's runs will be most important.

[deltadog03]

I know everyone is focused on the snow/sleet/freezing rain, but you can't forget about the wind that will accompany this storm. The CAD is going to give us NE winds of at least 15 mph, if not higher in some spots. That's bad news when talking about freezing rain... Just something to ponder.

PERFECT post...I was just about to say something about that...those winds are like 10-20 knots.  Talk about an entrenched wedge

[SnowNiner]

CLT is too close to call on this run. It's either gonna be a ton of snow or a ton of sleet. I'm leaning more towards snow as I think the models are going to under do how cold the air is at almost all levels. 

 

I hope you're right.  I'm not going to feel good until the models move that blue line into SC.  Robert seems to think we'll be in the mid 20s during the height of the storm.  If that's the case I would think the 850s would be plent cold for snow too...that's what I'm telling myself anyway. 

[FLweather]

Did the GFS die or something? No PBP?

 

No. Its roughly the same as 6z. 

 

Not as cold and wet as the nam but wetter than the 6z.

[HurricaneTracker]

When looking at model runs today, remember that the piece of energy that's causing the phasing (and significant winter storm), is still offshore in a notoriously poorly sampled region, the Gulf of Alaska. Thus, I don't think it's correct to think this forecast has "locked in" and what the current model runs show right now still could be substantially off.

 

Excellent point.  Based on water vapor loops, it seems that low should be sampled by the 00Z upper air network. That should hopefully help iron things out in terms of track a little more.

[scgirl]

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Done!

 

Thanks for the reminder Burger - been meaning to do this for several days now.  I lurk until obs come into play mostly, but thoroughly enjoy and use the info. gained from this site - it is invaluable to me, especially when I look like I know what I'm talking about to friends   & in order to better prepare for hazardous weather.  Thanks to all the knowledgeable people - pro & amateur alike - that make this site so wonderful!

[NEGa]

Here in NortheastGa it drops precep from light to heavy from 15hrs-78hrs on the latest Nam. Even if that doesn't verify... this is one exciting storm to follow. I agree with Lookout, soak it in baby!!!

welcome to the board, what a time to join lol.  glad to have another ne ga poster in the mix (love hartwell, go to the lake a couple of times a year at least)

 

you might be in one of the better spots from what i see on the map at this point.  as for the waffling/shifting/etc.  at this point while that is expected what is so unusual is that for most of us its not a big deal per se.  i mean yes it might add sleet or zr into the mix, might cut totals etc. but the storm is looking to be such a monster, with such high qpf that for once the shifts arent as disconcerting (to me at least) in that 6" 8" 10" is all good.  dont mind a bit a zr since used to that in ga, so just knowing a biggie is coming and the small shifts dont mean the difference between snow and nothing is awesome

[griteater]

Asheville, Boone, Morganton, Hickory, Lenoir, Mt. Airy - those areas look really good right now for a moderate to heavy snow event.

[deltadog03]

Chris, RGEM looks COLD!!

[nchighcountrywx]

Busy day at work, not sure if HPC's guidance for Heavy Snow Discussion was distributed:

 

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
413 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014

VALID 12Z MON FEB 10 2014 - 12Z THU FEB 13 2014

...SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO SOUTHEAST/MID-ATL
STATES...

A HIGH SOCIETAL IMPACT WINTER STORM IS APPEARING MORE AND MORE
LIKELY FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF
THE COUNTRY AND THEN PROCEEDING POTENTIALLY UP THE EAST COAST BY
MIDWEEK.

A VERY COMPLEX UPPER PATTERN WITH SPLIT FLOW REGIME REMAINS QUITE
ACTIVE ACROSS THE COUNTRY... WHILE A MAMMOTH DOME OF SURFACE
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONSUMES THE ERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY.
AN IMPRESSIVE AND DYNAMIC IMPULSE NEAR THE NRN ROCKIES WILL GLIDE
ALONG THE NRN STREAM AND REACH THE MID MS VALLEY ON MON.
MEANWHILE... THE LAST SHORT WAVE FROM THE PAC TROPICAL PLUME WILL
ADVANCE DOWNSTREAM ALONG THE ACTIVE SRN BRANCH AND TRACK FROM
CENTRAL CA TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE OVERALL CONFLUENT
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF EACH FEATURE AND UPPER VORTEX OVER
ONTARIO WILL LOCK IN A MAMMOTH AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE MIDWEST... WHILE A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY SETS UP
NEAR THE WRN/CENTRAL GULF COAST. ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT IN ADVANCE
OF THE SRN STREAM IMPULSE WITH INCREASING GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL OVERRUN AND SURGE INTO THE FRESHLY RE-ESTABLISHED
COLD SECTOR FOR A STREAK OF LIGHT SNOW FROM SERN KS/ERN OK THROUGH
AR... WHILE RAIN TRANSITIONS OVER TO FREEZING RAIN FROM EAST AND
CENTRAL TX/NRN LA INTO NRN/CENTRAL MS/AL. THE GUIDANCE HAS
NARROWED THE SPREAD SOME DESPITE THE TOUGH SPLIT FLOW PATTERN AND
WPC GENERALLY FOLLOWED A COMPROMISE/BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS AND
ECMWF... WITH THE GREATEST ICE ACCUMULATION THREAT FROM SHV TO
BHM.

THE FORECAST GETS MORE COMPLICATED WITH THESE TWO FEATURES ALOFT
ALONG WITH FURTHER UPSTREAM DYNAMICS ON TUES. THE NRN STREAM
IMPULSE TRACKS FROM MID MS VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST COAST... WHILE
THE SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TRACKS ACROSS TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
THE SLIGHT BACKING IN THE FLOW ALOFT IS DUE TO RIDGE AMPLIFYING
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND PAC DYNAMICS MOVING INTO THE PAC NW ON
MON BEFORE DIGGING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THUS THE GENERALLY SUPPRESSED PRECIP SHIELD ON MON
WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND AND LIFT TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND
SOUTHEAST... WHILE THE UPSTREAM DYNAMICS CAPITALIZE ON THE
EXISTING FRONTAL ZONE TO POSSIBLY INDUCE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY WED MORNING. NEEDLESS TO SAY... IF
YOU ARE CONFUSED... YOU CAN IMAGINE THE REMAINING FORECAST SPREAD
WITH THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. WPC STAYED VERY CLOSE
TO THE COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF FOR QPF AMOUNTS AND A
BLEND OF THESE TWO WITH THE 21Z/09 SREF MEAN FOR PRECIP TYPE. AN
IMPRESSIVE AXIS OF ICING WITH SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED ON THE
NRN/NERN FRINGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS OR ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST... AS A 1030+ SURFACE
RIDGE DAMS. EXPECT POSSIBLE .10 TO MAYBE .50 INCH ICING FROM ERN
TX THROUGH NRN LA INTO CENTRAL MS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THEN THE
ACTION SHIFTS ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL GA INTO MUCH OF SC AND MOST OF NC
WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW AND POSSIBLY THE BEGINNING OF A
PARALYZING ICE STORM ACROSS CENTRAL SC INTO NERN GA.

THEN FINALLY ON WED... THE DIGGING UPSTREAM DYNAMICS OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RAPIDLY CATCH UP WITH THE SRN STREAM DYNAMICS
TO POTENTIALLY PHASE OVER THE SERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
WILL ALLOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC TO INTERACT WITH THE DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST... WHILE ONE OF THE MORE
IMPRESSIVE CONFLUENT ZONES ALOFT KEEPS THE ARCTIC AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE ENTRENCHED OVER THE EAST. A TRUE BAROCLINIC LEAF PRECIP
SHIELD WILL EVOLVE FEATURING CONTINUED ICING FROM EAST OF ATL
TOWARD CAE THEN SHIFTING NORTH TOWARD RDU AND A VERY HEALTHY
DEFORMATION ZONE OF BANDING SNOWFALL FROM SWRN NC/NWRN SC NEWRD TO
SWRN/CENTRAL VA BEFORE POSSIBLY FLIRTING WITH THE DC/BALT METRO
AREAS. THE ICE ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN POSSIBLY PARALYZING IF NOT
HISTORICAL WITH ADDITIONAL .50 TO .75 INCH AXIS FROM AHN TO CAE TO
RDU AND 8 TO 10 INCHES OR SNOW FROM AVL/GSP TO ROA/LYH/CHO. WPC
CONTINUED THE COMPROMISE OF THE GFS/ECMWF WITH SUPPORT FROM THE
SREF MEAN... THOUGH MUCH MORE OF THE ENSEMBLE SUPPORT IS BEGINNING
TO CLUSTER CLOSER TO THE ECMWF ON A FULL FLEDGED PHASED COASTAL
WINTER STORM.

[hartweather]

welcome to the board, what a time to join lol.  glad to have another ne ga poster in the mix (love hartwell, go to the lake a couple of times a year at least)

 

you might be in one of the better spots from what i see on the map at this point.  as for the waffling/shifting/etc.  at this point while that is expected what is so unusual is that for most of us its not a big deal per se.  i mean yes it might add sleet or zr into the mix, might cut totals etc. but the storm is looking to be such a monster, with such high qpf that for once the shifts arent as disconcerting (to me at least) in that 6" 8" 10" is all good.  dont mind a bit a zr since used to that in ga, so just knowing a biggie is coming and the small shifts dont mean the difference between snow and nothing is awesome

Yes, its a great place to live!! To my untrained eye it seems that we might be in a good spot. I agree with you on the totals, as long as snow gets above the onion grass in my yard, It doesn't matter what we get after that!!

[Poimen]

Best I can tell, the UKMET has about .50 qpf at RDU by hour 60 with cold 850s..that's the quickest advance of the precip I've seen. I hope it's in the ballpark.

 

[senc30]

Not sure if this is banter material or not but could someone please explain to me why the local mets in my area are raising snow totals when the maps seem to show less snow here and more ice? Just a little co fused with this. Went from 1-3 yesterday to 4-7 today. If this is banter material please delete and I apologize in advance.

[Lookout]

welcome to the board, what a time to join lol.  glad to have another ne ga poster in the mix (love hartwell, go to the lake a couple of times a year at least)

 

you might be in one of the better spots from what i see on the map at this point.  as for the waffling/shifting/etc.  at this point while that is expected what is so unusual is that for most of us its not a big deal per se.  i mean yes it might add sleet or zr into the mix, might cut totals etc. but the storm is looking to be such a monster, with such high qpf that for once the shifts arent as disconcerting (to me at least) in that 6" 8" 10" is all good.  dont mind a bit a zr since used to that in ga, so just knowing a biggie is coming and the small shifts dont mean the difference between snow and nothing is awesome

I actually hope to get a little freezing rain or drizzle so that it covers everything and will make it hang around longer. Plus when I had my 10 inches a few years ago, the little bit of freezing rain/drizzle I got made everything that much prettier.

 

the 12z gfs now has freezing temperatures making it all the way into eastern alabama to the west of atlanta by 12z Wed! And that's right ahead of the heaviest precipitation. You don't  see freezing temps from a wedge make into alabama very often.

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Best I can tell, the UKMET has about .50 qpf at RDU by hour 60 with cold 850s..that's the quickest advance of the precip I've seen. I hope it's in the ballpark.

 

 

 

Would like to see the next panel of that (72 hour) and hopefully see where the Low pressure in South Georgia tracks.

[sctvman]

What RPM shows Wed at 5pm from WLTX. Snow shield including most of NC.

 

 

RPM also says 6" snow possible in Newberry, says 1.5" for CAE.

[Poimen]

Would like to see the next panel of that (72 hour) and hopefully see where the Low pressure in South Georgia tracks.

 

 

[Lookout]

Chris, RGEM looks COLD!!

Sure does...puts you in the game for sure. As i just mentioned the gfs is now showing freezing temps all the way into alabama. The nam is also doing it but because of it's stronger waa aloft, it warms them back above freezing slightly before going back to freezing with the back end snow. However I doubt temps will rise there if it gets below freezing with steady precip. So the models might finally be getting a better handle on the low level cold with this. And it wouldn't surprise me to see it trend colder and further south/west even more.

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

 

 

 

 

You would think with a 998 low sitting over Morehead City that more moisture would be thrown back into WNC.  Maybe it didn't fully phase?

[beanskip]

Friendly piece of advice for new posters: If you include the phrase: "if this belongs in banter" in your post, it probably does.

[Stormsfury]

UKIE is inland because it rips out the NE High due to the upstream energy in ND, but that is an 850mb level map, so unless the SFC low is vertically stacked, I'm assuming the SLP is a little south and east of that