Shawn Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I am from Columbia and we rarely get so much precip. at one time. Am I understanding this correctly : 10 inches?? Rain and frozen rain? 10 inches if it were snow. It won't be snow for the most part (without a major temp change.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Via Atlanta News: City of Atlanta will pretreat priority roads & bridges on Monday in advance of Winter Storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I am from Columbia and we rarely get so much precip. at one time. Am I understanding this correctly : 10 inches?? Rain and frozen rain?It's really more likely to be 1" liquid equivalent. Some snow, some IP, some ZR, some rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Via Atlanta News: City of Atlanta will pretreat priority roads & bridges on Monday in advance of Winter Storm That seems like the prudent thing to do. Good for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raidersbb Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I still have a feeling this is going to trend eastward. Lots of time left still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Don't know if this is the right place to ask, but I've been lurking for several seasons and don't know much about models and usually don't understand the weather talk. I'm learning...lol But, seems there is concern for SIG ice in spots. Does that include NC? Looks more south. But, I'm just east of Burlington and am a Floridian. Do yall really get storm supplies for this one...aka hurricane box out of attic. I wouldn't just yet but I would keep an eye on it. If it looks like there's going to be more freezing rain, I would at least be prepared because if it turns out being a major ice storm you could be without power for a week or longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Roberts video update on Wxsouth is a good one. He likes the idea of the _____ model and how it's handling this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Roberts video update on Wxsouth is a good one. He likes the idea of the _____ model and how it's handling this storm. for real man? that's great news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Really neat maps that show the low tracks on the models and ensembles. I borrowed from the MA thread. I would definitely hedge on the western side 2/3 of the track envelope at this point in time, with the Euro, NAM (not that that means much at 84 hours), CMC, and others going west. GEFS members are also noticeably west of the OP GFS.As a side note, CMC and it's ensembles are oriented the opposite way ... so I wouldn't be surprise to see the CMC shift the wrong direction in next run or 3. cmc.gif gefs.gif pres_short.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 for real man? that's great news. He's going for big snow totals for W NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Don't know if this is the right place to ask, but I've been lurking for several seasons and don't know much about models and usually don't understand the weather talk. I'm learning...lol But, seems there is concern for SIG ice in spots. Does that include NC? Looks more south. But, I'm just east of Burlington and am a Floridian. Do yall really get storm supplies for this one...aka hurricane box out of attic. There are countless posts regarding this subject. There is no need in someone having rehash the very basics 50 times because certain people don't want to take the time to READ. I'm not trying to be a butthole about this but stuff like this just clogs up the thread. And stuff like the bold goes in the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 WOW. The EPS members are way up! Mean is up 2.25" in GSO alone to 10" as of the 12z run! All 51 members show >2" and only five show less than 6". It's the best EPS run yet without a doubt and the second improved run in a row. Totals (this is probably mostly or all snow further north and west, but ice further south and east): GSO: 10" HKY: 9.5" CLT: 11.5" (mixing?) AVL: 10.25" RDU: 9.75" (likely some mixing) MWK: 8.75" RWI: 7.75" (likely mixing) PGV: 5.75" (definitely mixing) FAY: 10" (definitely mixing) DAN: 10" CAE: 10" (obviously not snow, but IP and/or ZR) -> NO snow here... you're probably looking at 1" ZR and/or 1" ZR/IP GSP: 11.5" (probable mixing?) ATL: 5" (probably not much snow) AHN: 9.75" (mixing, I'd presume) If you want to know more locations, you can ask in the banter thread. SuperJames -- Thanks for the summary -- I'm trying to get a handle on the potential along the VA border from north of W/S on over to near Clarksville. Any thoughts? It looks like a sharp gradient (nothing to a few inches) from the immediate border south for the initial system (Tuesday frame) -- with more for the second system Wednesday - Thursday? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 SuperJames -- Thanks for the summary -- I'm trying to get a handle on the potential along the VA border from north of W/S on over to near Clarksville. Any thoughts? It looks like a sharp gradient (nothing to a few inches) from the immediate border south for the initial system (Tuesday frame) -- with more for the second system Wednesday - Thursday? Thanks! The area may be too far south for the initial system (or at least fringed), but we all get clocked by the second system on Wednesday. The EPS mean is 10" for Danville and 8.75" for Martinsville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I still have a feeling this is going to trend eastward. Lots of time left still.Just curious as to why exactly you feel this way? Seems like guidance has begun the westward shift all major models anyhow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Latest news14 Nam Check out @TWCNews_CLTWX's Tweet: https://twitter.com/TWCNews_CLTWX/status/432671221025472512 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Really neat maps that show the low tracks on the models and ensembles. I borrowed from the MA thread.[/quoteThat's our benchmark. A boxed off area from Tallahassee to savannah down to Jacksonville. Miller A's usually do best for us when they phase /deepen before or coming through this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 for those who missed it, pretty good discussion out of wpc this afternoon in their qpt forecast. ...GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST...THE NEAR-SURFACE AND HIGHER-BASED PORTIONS OF THE COLD FRONTEXTENDING FROM THE APPALACHIANS INTO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILLBECOME THE PRIMARY FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR SIGNIFICANT LIQUIDEQUIVALENT TOTALS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS ALONGTHE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST COAST. TWO MAIN ROUNDS OFPRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED...BOTH ORIGINATING OVER THE GULF COAST REGION...WITH THE SECONDROUND LIKELY LARGER AND HEAVIER. DETERMINING THE EXACTTIMING/LOCATION/MAXIMA ARE PROBLEMATIC HOWEVER. EACH OF THEDETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT SHORTCOMINGSWITH REGARDS TO ITS ASSOCIATED QPF RANGING FROM VARIOUS DEGREES OFCONVECTIVE GRID-SCALE FEEDBACK TO BIASES. NONE MAY BE MOREIMPORTANT THOUGH THAN MODEL INITIALIZATION. THE TWO MOSTSIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO AFFECT THE REGION REMAIN IN ADATA SPARSE REGION OVER THE PACIFIC AND ARE JUST A SMALL PART OF AVERY COMPLICATED HEMISPHERIC PATTERN INVOLVING MULTIPLE ANDPOSSIBLY INTERACTING UPPER LOWS CONTAINING SHORT WAVELENGTHS. ASSUCH...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS ARE VARYING CONSIDERABLY FROMRUN-TO-RUN...WHICH MAY NOT BE LARGELY RESOLVED UNTIL THESE TROUGHSMOVE ASHORE ON TUESDAY. THEREFORE...THE FORECAST REMAINS SOMEWHATCONSERVATIVE IN ITS APPROACH...PARTICULARLY AMPLITUDE...DUE TO THEPOTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT FROM MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES (REFER TOQPFHSD FOR WINTER DISCUSSION) AND RELATED LOW CONFIDENCE. THELIQUID EQUIVALENT FORECAST AS A WHOLE IS MOST SIMILAR TO THE 12ZGFS...ALTHOUGH SMALL ASPECTS OF THE 12Z NAM/UKMET AND 00-12Z ECMWFARE ALSO INCLUDED. THE MORE NORTHERN SOLUTIONS OF THE 12ZECMWF/UKMET/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN REMAIN POSSIBLE BUT HAVE LOWERPROBABILITIES...DUE IN PART TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE HIGHFORMING OVER THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND. THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANSWERE ALSO USED TO QUANTIFY THE SPREAD AND DEVELOP A BASELINE TOMATCH THE PREFERRED LOW AND MID LEVEL PATTERN WITH THEDETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER...EVEN THESE SOLUTIONS HAVELIMITATIONS DUE TO THEIR LARGER GRID-SPACING AND TIME-STEPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 for those who missed it, pretty good discussion out of wpc this afternoon in their qpt forecast. ...GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST... So in other words, the roller coaster of model waffling will continue until we see the "whites of this storm system's eyes". Great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spurscar Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 WOW. The EPS members are way up! Mean is up 2.25" in GSO alone to 10" as of the 12z run! All 51 members show >2" and only five show less than 6". It's the best EPS run yet without a doubt and the second improved run in a row. Totals (this is probably mostly or all snow further north and west, but ice further south and east): GSO: 10" HKY: 9.5" CLT: 11.5" (mixing?) AVL: 10.25" RDU: 9.75" (likely some mixing) MWK: 8.75" RWI: 7.75" (likely mixing) PGV: 5.75" (definitely mixing) FAY: 10" (definitely mixing) DAN: 10" CAE: 10" (obviously not snow, but IP and/or ZR) -> NO snow here... you're probably looking at 1" ZR and/or 1" ZR/IP GSP: 11.5" (probable mixing?) ATL: 5" (probably not much snow) AHN: 9.75" (mixing, I'd presume) RMG: 4" (mixing) DNN: 4.25" (mixing) If you want to know more locations, you can ask in the banter thread. Thanks for the summary, really hoping the fact it's been trending colder today means it'll keep doing that. Hate CAE may miss a shot at this much snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 For the newbies and interested followers examining the 18z nam we had the beginnings of a phase around hour 57 on the nam and then started to look beautiful from there on out. For the 0z you forward 6 hours so somewhere in the 51 hour timeframe your gonna want to see the phase start to happen again in order to get a product like we did on the 18z run precipitation wise. It seems as tho the Nam and to some extent the Euro are phasing the two streams a lot quicker than the GFS thus the more amped up and in turn heavier precip/snow totals. The Canadian model was an absolute beast. GFS doesn't start the phase if I remember correctly until closer to the 75hr timeframe so were looking to see the GFS get its act together a little quicker. All in all I'm sure if Nam begins the phasing quicker like it's been showing your gonna see a heck of a representation on the 850 maps like we did at 18z. GFS jumps on board it's game set and match for an awesome se winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Good discussion with Brad P over on the NC Storm Chasers FB page. He is going with 2-4 inches for CLT metro as he feels sleet and ZR are going to cut in to our totals here. Very sound reasoning but I have my weenie dreams so I'm hoping the models are underestimating the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 **FFC extends the WSWatch to Wednesday AM.** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cornsnow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Good discussion with Brad P over on the NC Storm Chasers FB page. He is going with 2-4 inches for CLT metro as he feels sleet and ZR are going to cut in to our totals here. Very sound reasoning but I have my weenie dreams so I'm hoping the models are underestimating the cold air. He definitely has some great points and I think he is one of the most solid mets around here and usually has a pretty good handle on the situation in this area. Like you Burger my weenie dreams are still alive though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Good discussion with Brad P over on the NC Storm Chasers FB page. He is going with 2-4 inches for CLT metro as he feels sleet and ZR are going to cut in to our totals here. Very sound reasoning but I have my weenie dreams so I'm hoping the models are underestimating the cold air. Didn't think it would be that much ice, though, to cut the snow totals down that much there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Didn't think it would be that much ice, though, to cut the snow totals down that much there. Sleet will do a number on accumulations. Big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 FWIW (admittedly, not much) 18z DGEX still has this event going strong in central NC at dawn Thursday AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Didn't think it would be that much ice, though, to cut the snow totals down that much there. When we have the snow down here it is going to all depend on what kind of bands set up and how long you're under them. That's going to be key. If we see a switch over to sleet say 2 or 3 hours in Wed. then there will be some tears shed by many of this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 Good discussion with Brad P over on the NC Storm Chasers FB page. He is going with 2-4 inches for CLT metro as he feels sleet and ZR are going to cut in to our totals here. Very sound reasoning but I have my weenie dreams so I'm hoping the models are underestimating the cold air. Just enough to get people to listen, then if the models hold through tomorrow, they will pull the trigger I'm sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Just enough to get people to listen, then if the models hold through tomorrow, they will pull the trigger I'm sure. Yep. I'll be interested to see what the SREF does in a few minutes. NAM is going to probably have wild solutions until tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Eric Thomas had a great facebook update also, "In short, 6" seems like a good target number for the Charlotte area with a little less I-40 north, a bit more south and east." https://www.facebook.com/pages/Eric-Thomas-WBTV/113164938728762 Good discussion with Brad P over on the NC Storm Chasers FB page. He is going with 2-4 inches for CLT metro as he feels sleet and ZR are going to cut in to our totals here. Very sound reasoning but I have my weenie dreams so I'm hoping the models are underestimating the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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