jtomlinwx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Has anyone viewed soundings for RDU or locations near there from the 12z NAM. Looking strictly at 850s, it looks like the temp stays right at the freezing line through much of the storm. Would this not likely translate into more snow for RDU? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 12z NAM is all snow in Greenville, SC area from hr54 on (the main show) according to soundings. yep just looked at the meteogram......solid 9 inches for GSP and 8 for KCLT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I can tell you by looking at the nam that there will be more snow back in the mountains than advertised. Also Foothills, and Western piedmont region will get in some enhanced snow because of the lift on east side of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Wow.. lowest is 6... highest is a two footer. Looks like most centered around a foot. Simply amazing to look at. Only thing is that you are dealing with the same issue on those charts of not knowing ptype for sure. I think the more interesting figure is that the Euro Ensemble Mean had 1.6 inches of liquid equivalent for Charlotte. Euro Ens Mean is probably as good as any tool with QPF...so it's a big storm no matter how the precip type shakes out - snow/sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 WXSOUTH @WxSouth 24s The heaviest of the heavy snow occurs nw of 850 low track. Gainesville GSP CLT HKY GSO RIC . Rates will reach 2" an hour at height #snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 For everyone watching this thread who are not members (or are members). Please donate to the board by clicking the banner at the top. It's because of donations that allows you and us to enjoy this community. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparkync Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I can tell you by looking at the nam that there will be more snow back in the mountains than advertised. Also Foothills, and Western piedmont region will get in some enhanced snow because of the lift on east side of the mountains. yes, with a coastal track hold true, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Sister goes to school at WCU in Cullowhee in the mountains. I told then to start getting excited. Hard to envision that area not taking a good hit with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 Only thing is that you are dealing with the same issue on those charts of not knowing ptype for sure. I think the more interesting figure is that the Euro Ensemble Mean had 1.6 inches of liquid equivalent for Charlotte. Euro Ens Mean is probably as good as any tool with QPF...so it's a big storm no matter how the precip type shakes out - snow/sleet Right.. I'm sure some of those high totals are more of a sleet event.. but the trend of more QPF is clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The RGEM is now precariously close to ATL with snow tomorrow AM...it has them going over at the airport at least 16-18Z as the first wave starts winding down but from 13Z onward its entirely possible north of 285 is snowing...again the boundary layer may be too warm due to earlier rains to really get surface temps below 34-35 at this time but its good news as far as the 2nd wave which the RGEM now shows as mainly sleet over NRN GA or a mix of FZRA and sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Nam is much improved for the Triad compared to the last run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Buffkit from the nam for cae Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The RGEM is now precariously close to ATL with snow tomorrow AM...it has them going over at the airport at least 16-18Z as the first wave starts winding down but from 13Z onward its entirely possible north of 285 is snowing...again the boundary layer may be too warm due to earlier rains to really get surface temps below 34-35 at this time but its good news as far as the 2nd wave which the RGEM now shows as mainly sleet over NRN GA or a mix of FZRA and sleet. TY for posting that...That is starting to show a ZR threat *verbatim on runs* down to me in MCN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Has anyone viewed soundings for RDU or locations near there from the 12z NAM. Looking strictly at 850s, it looks like the temp stays right at the freezing line through much of the storm. Would this not likely translate into more snow for RDU? There will be a warm layer in there somewhere other than 850. Pray it's thin and the near surface freezing layer is thick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Holy Crap! Check out the bufkit data from the 12z nam! Shows 19.6 inches of snow in Greensboro! http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=nam&site=kgso Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 GFS at 15 a tad north with AZ vort? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Holy Crap! Check out the bufkit data from the 12z nam! Shows 19.6 inches of snow in Greensboro! http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=nam&site=kgso 14.1 inches for GSP. **runs and hides** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tgarren Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 has their been any consensus regarding timing? I have been trying to keep an eye on the forecast and the models the last few days as I had to travel to greenville, sc and will be (hopefully) driving home up 85 tomorrow to asheboro, nc. am i right in it appears to be mostly light stuff until late tuesday early wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 KRDU NAM 06Z compared to 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 for RDU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Holy Crap! Check out the bufkit data from the 12z nam! Shows 19.6 inches of snow in Greensboro! http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=nam&site=kgso This is what I'm taking about...with mets talking about "not even 10:1 ratios" so soon and something like this shows up a day before an event, that's eating crow if this happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Holy Crap! Check out the bufkit data from the 12z nam! Shows 19.6 inches of snow in Greensboro! http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=nam&site=kgso Boom! it gives CLT 13" LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Thru 33 looks fairly similar with the placement of both vorts however Montana energy looks to not be as strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 has their been any consensus regarding timing? I have been trying to keep an eye on the forecast and the models the last few days as I had to travel to greenville, sc and will be (hopefully) driving home up 85 tomorrow to asheboro, nc. am i right in it appears to be mostly light stuff until late tuesday early wednesday? Yes, main show is overnight Tues into Wed for that route Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrhardin Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Holy Crap! Check out the bufkit data from the 12z nam! Shows 19.6 inches of snow in Greensboro! http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=nam&site=kgso Something interesting about this and different than the previous storm is the predicted high ratios due to excellent omega (lift) occurring in the favored snow growth zone. Compare this to the previous storm where the lift and optimal DGZ were not overlapping so we got the little crystals instead of nice aggregates. I do think such a high ratio per the bufkit data is unlikely, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 39 everything a little further west you have the southern energy still over east central TX and the digging into the Rockies whereas it was more east in the middle of the nation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Phasing earlier on the 12z GFS. Looks like 850's are a tad warmer as well out to 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 GFS looks a little colder at 2m here in GA and the qpf is a little more suppressed so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Phasing earlier on the 12z GFS. Looks like 850's are a tad warmer as well out to 48. This is more consistent with the other runs of the GFS. I think NAM late phase was an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 51 is about to look awesome as the backside is digging nicely good swath of moisture over ms al and ga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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