Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Nam is coming back down to earth. Possibly but it's one run and even then it still puts down 6-10 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 NAM is a Jan 22, 1987 redux...it's a tick east of overnight Euro / Euro Ensemble mean I think this one is going to have a much broader transition/ice zone though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 think this looks much more realistic than what it was showing the other runs...it is worlds colder and stronger with that wedge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Wow at WNC and upstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 You are correct sir. Seems to be falling in line with the evolution of the 87 system.. NAM is a Jan 22, 1987 redux...it's a tick east of overnight Euro / Euro Ensemble mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 @72 hours till heavy snow... OMG. A little speechless.. It is the NAM.. probably overdone. But wow. Widespread 12"+ across the foothills and W piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I think this one is going to have a much broader transition/ice zone though. Good point with the cold air damming regime in place this go around which was not there in '87. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 You are correct sir. Seems to be falling in line with the evolution of the 87 system.. Which one? Two storms close in timeframe over a matter of days. But Im guessing the 23rd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 Zoom in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 A little speechless.. It is the NAM.. probably overdone. But wow. Widespread 12"+ across the foothills and W piedmont. NAM looks more realistic to me. You can probably cut totals by 1/3....but I suspected there would be more cold air with this system then models were saying. I still feel that and once the wedge sets up it's game time. Of course the NAM is probably going to have a different look every run until tomorrow when that northern energy is fully sampled. Keeping that energy in the south positively tilted really helped on this run compared to the 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Brad P just tweeted the mean of the top 15 analogs for this potential storm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 A little speechless.. It is the NAM.. probably overdone. But wow. Widespread 12"+ across the foothills and W piedmont. I'm really at a loss for words too man. Good grief. Between areal coverage and the extreme totals...it could be a once a lifetime storm. And I'm not just saying this because of the nam..but because all the models are showing really widespread and really high snow, sleet and freezing rain. Folks should soak all this in and enjoy it. And also, we should all start saving maps. Maybe after it's over we could put them all in a thread and in the future we could look back it. I know I'm saving some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I would go with the 23rd. Grit mentioned it above also. Which one? Two storms close in timeframe over a matter of days. But Im guessing the 23rd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Zoom in I'll take my 10 inches. Not sure if that's counting sleet for southern/eastern areas. Either way a crap load if frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Speaking of maps. Here is the total through 84 on the NAM 12Z: I'm really at a loss for words too man. Good grief. Between areal coverage and the extreme totals...it could be a once a lifetime storm. And I'm not just saying this because of the nam..but because all the models are showing really widespread and really high snow, sleet and freezing rain. Folks should soak all this in and enjoy it. And also, we should all start saving maps. Maybe after it's over we could put them all in a thread and in the future we could look back it. I know I'm saving some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Zoom in That has me in 15" of snow; what really scares me is that's not going to be (all) snow. I think we have a real chance of another 2002 type ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 question on NAM thermal profiles......The NAM was a great hit for everyone at face value but if you look at the bufkit for the I-85 corridor up to Charlottle, over half of the precip was ZR plus quite a bit of IP and very little actual snow........so how does the NAM actually do with the thermal stack up of the column in CAD regimes in this time frame? Is it reasonable to expect that it is underplaying the cold or is it historically pretty accurate? Thanks EDIT: I think I this is still the 6Z and the 12Z has not updated yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 guys the trends this morning was north and west and now some say south and east, anyone know which one it is, lol this is crazy jumping around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 guys the trends this morning was north and west and now some say south and east, anyone know which one it is, lol this is crazy jumping around. Umm the 0z Euro and 0z-6z NAM were north and west of previous guidance and now the 12z NAM has moved back east somewhat. The GFS is farther east than most (all?) other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparkync Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 guys the trends this morning was north and west and now some say south and east, anyone know which one it is, lol this is crazy jumping around. the models are back and forth, its normal in this time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hartweather Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Here in NortheastGa it drops precep from light to heavy from 15hrs-78hrs on the latest Nam. Even if that doesn't verify... this is one exciting storm to follow. I agree with Lookout, soak it in baby!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 question on NAM thermal profiles......The NAM was a great hit for everyone at face value but if you look at the bufkit for the I-85 corridor up to Charlottle, over half of the precip was ZR plus quite a bit of IP and very little actual snow........so how does the NAM actually do with the thermal stack up of the column in CAD regimes in this time frame? Is it reasonable to expect that it is underplaying the cold or is it historically pretty accurate? Thanks NAM bufkit hasn't come out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossthread Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Very strong Disco coming from KILM!.. Whoa.. Synopsis...a major winter weather event is expected across most of the area.The risk for severe icing Tuesday night and Wednesday...away fromthe coast is increasing. Light mixed precipitation may begin asearly as near daybreak Tuesday. A cold front will push south of thearea early this morning and stall along the Gulf Coast and offshorethis evening. Arctic high pressure will nose its way into the areain the wake of the front. A series of low pressure systems willdevelop and track along the stalled front Tuesday through Thursday.Drier weather will finally return to the area Friday and persistthrough the weekend.&&Near term /through tonight/...as of 6 am Monday...it is going to be a very interesting next60 hours across the eastern Carolinas. The risk for a significantand perhaps lengthy winter weather event continues to increase. Asevere ice storm is certainly plausible with the odds of thisgreatest across the more southern and western portions of theforecast area. We will have to watch this very closely...and weadvise our customers to keep checking back for the latest forecasts.A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for the vast majority of thearea away from the coast and it is time to prepare for dangerouswinter weather whose aftermath may last for many days...if not weeksin the worst casescenario.A backdoor cold front was moving across the forecast very early thismorning. This front will stall along the Gulf Coast and offshorethis evening. The front will be shallow in nature...with the cold airvery slowly deepening through the period as Arctic high pressurecentered across the northern plains begins to wedge into thesoutheast states. Developing NE winds will slowly deepen from thesurface through 2 to 4 kft...deepest across the northern portions ofthe forecast area.There will be a steady cold push through tonight as 925 mb temperaturesdrop to zero to 2 degree c and as cold as minus 2 degree c from udg to eyfand points north and west. The column will begin to support frozenprecipitation across the northern three-quarters of our forecastarea toward Tuesday morning. Developing isentropic lift will initiallybe weak tonight...and the column is not expected to significantlymoisten...especially in the lowest levels making it tough for anyprecipitation to reach the ground. The exception will be across themore southern portions of the forecast area...where the column doesmoisten substantially down through 1200 feet. Will begin introducingslight chance/small probability of precipitation after midnight...first across southern andwestern portions of the Pee Dee and then spreading to the coastbefore daybreak. Will confine mention of measurable precipitation toareas along and south of a ilm to bbp line. A mix of light sleet andlight snow is possible before daybreak Tuesday. Pockets of frozenprecipitation may accumulate to a trace overnight and early Tuesdaymorning in these areas. Will keep mention of only rain from aboutKingstree to Bald Head Island and southward before daybreak.Temperatures today will be held down by increasing cloud cover and cold airadvection. Expect a significant temperature gradient from north to S. We areforecasting highs in the upper 40s across the far north and as warm asthe upper 50s across the far south. Lows tonight will be in the middleand upper 30s. However...lows will be near freezing along and north of aline from bbp to lbt to eyf to Watha. In these areas...temperatures are notexpected to reach near freezing until after 3 or 4 am.&&Short term /Tuesday through Tuesday night/...as of 3 am Monday...Significant winter storm still expected. Watches being issued.Concerned about major ice storm over far western zones. Coastallocales likely escaping most if not all of the hazardous weather.The high level of uncertainty has been stressed regarding this stormfor several iterations of the afd thus far and it bears repeating.Isentropic upglide overrunning surface cool wedge on Tuesday causinglight precipitation to break out from south to north as the day wears on.Southernmost zones will be warm enough for all rain but travelingfarther north the increasing depth of the cold air will favor moreice pellets and then snow/ip. To say the least whenever ice pellets isinvolved forecasting accums is difficult. Further complicatingTuesday snowfall forecast is that best Omega lies mostly over rain andtransition zone. Still...far northern zones may get an inch or so.Tuesday night into Wednesday two key things happen that will need tobe monitored closely as a very dangerous icing situation appears tobe shaping up. The surface airmass asserts itself and lowersfreezing levels while offshore cyclogenesis strengthens theisentropic lift. Over NC this means that the sleet/snow will pushfurther south...possibly getting into some coastal sections butlikely not long enough for much accumulations. The snow/ice pellets willcontinue over northern and western zones while grand strand and far southern zoneshard pressed to see anything but rain. Meanwhile in between therewill be an increasingly large Battle Ground where the cold air isjust thin enough for freezing rain. This should start over northern flowand Darlington County late Tuesday night and burgeon almost due eastwardinto daybreak Wednesday and then expand northward with the warm air advection Wednesdaymorning. Where this persists the longest...across much of the PeeDee as well as into interior NC counties...the potential exists fora dangerous ice storm with freezing rain accums in the 0.25-0.50 inch range.Unfortunately there is even indication that should the dry air besufficiently overwhelmed by the overrunning warm air advection and Gomex moisturean even more damaging ice storm (0.5-0.75" of fzra) cannot beruled out. Such ice storms often lead to extensive tree damage andpower outages lasting weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 question on NAM thermal profiles......The NAM was a great hit for everyone at face value but if you look at the bufkit for the I-85 corridor up to Charlottle, over half of the precip was ZR plus quite a bit of IP and very little actual snow........so how does the NAM actually do with the thermal stack up of the column in CAD regimes in this time frame? Is it reasonable to expect that it is underplaying the cold or is it historically pretty accurate? Thanks EDIT: I think I this is still the 6Z and the 12Z has not updated yet. 12z NAM is all snow in Greenville, SC area from hr54 on (the main show) according to soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 NAM bufkit hasn't come out yet. correct....I just caught that....but I still and curious how the NAM does historically with the thermal profile in CAD regime? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 NAM Hi-RES radar is a thing of beauty @60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 guys the trends this morning was north and west and now some say south and east, anyone know which one it is, lol this is crazy jumping around. Actually I believe all in all even if it does go a little south and east from yesterday nam and euro wise I agree with what Bob Chill is referring to in the MA forum that northwest precip will be more expansive due to the phasing and subsequent strong low forming with The moisture transport already occurring and gulf origins this thing should be huge for everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 0z euro ens for clt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 correct....I just caught that....but I still and curious how the NAM does historically with the thermal profile in CAD regime? It should do as good as any with CAD thermals once we have model agreement on the sfc and mid level low tracks...not there yet though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 0z euro ens for clt Wow.. lowest is 6... highest is a two footer. Looks like most centered around a foot. Simply amazing to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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