Buddy1987 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Boy look at all the energy out there you got the British Columbia energy interacting coming down the Rockies you have the northern vort in eastern SD and you have the southern energy out in AZ this thing is ripe and ready to rip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 NAM looks much wetter at 21 hours than 18z. Moisture is further north out in MS. Also much colder than the 6z run at the same time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 HR 9 the southern energy is further south than the 6z run. Chris, it looks colder at 27 for ATL. I think the NAM may be catching on to just how cold that air going over snowpack is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SD1 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The transition line usually starts between Smithfield and Clayton, NC in situations like this event with more snow as you go west. If the low tracks over the Coastal Plain near or between I-95 and US 17,Raleigh usually gets ice or rain. Every storm is different, but usually this is how I remember the big coastal set ups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 wow, NAM is not backing off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 NAM looks much wetter at 21 hours than 18z. Moisture is further north out in MS. Also much colder than the 6z run at the same time frame. Agreed...looking good so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 If it does happen, it's amazing the stature this winter will have achieved considering we all but threw away December. After how much cold weather we have had, I'd put this winter up there with the best of them I know that much. Btw, I just mentioned this in the other thread but surface winds are going to be on the order of 15 to 20 knots substained (not counting higher gusts) so that is only going to make things much worse for areas hit hard with freezing rain. But even those areas that get all snow or a lot of it, it looks like it's going to be fairly wet..especially near the transition zone and that could bring some trees down itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Chris, it looks colder at 27 for ATL. I think the NAM may be catching on to just how cold that air going over snowpack is. Your right! It is actually a nice amount colder than 6z run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Southern stream energy is more east at hr 30 comparing it to 36 6z has it well into TX Edit: Ehh 33 looks pretty close to what 6z had energy wise in TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 After how much cold weather we have had, I'd put this winter up there with the best of them I know that much. Btw, I just mentioned this in the other thread but surface winds are going to be on the order of 15 to 20 knots substained (not counting higher gusts) so that is only going to make things much worse for areas hit hard with freezing rain. But even those areas that get all snow or a lot of it, it looks like it's going to be fairly wet..especially near the transition zone and that could bring some trees down itself. Yes, the wind is gonna make things go nuts!! BTW, throw this at ya, I know think we need as much QPF across our states with first wave, models with more tend to have a colder profile quicker. Hope that makes sense...what you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Your right! It is actually a nice amount colder than 6z run... Wait till you get to 33. A good bit colder than 6z. That should be good news for your area as this could be a sign you get more IP vs. ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 about 4 degrees colder at 2m by 18z TUE vs 6z run edit: DEF colder by 00z WED...I would estimate like 4 degrees colder at 2m across GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossthread Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 HR 9 the southern energy is further south than the 6z run. Push it further SE offshore please, We Coastal Folks are within spitting distance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 850 line looks like it's either right over or just south of ATL at 36. It looks to me like at 5h it's going to phase later than the 6z. Only time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yes, the wind is gonna make things go nuts!! BTW, throw this at ya, I know think we need as much QPF across our states with first wave, models with more tend to have a colder profile quicker. Hope that makes sense...what you think? yeah it helps keep the temp profiles down. This mornings nam is much colder at the surface here and is showing all snow now for athens. Earlier runs had it in the 36 or 37 degree range..now it's just barely above freezing by hour 27. The nam says this first wave is no joke..has 0.50 liquid here..so a really good snow here. Ratios probably will be fairly low so 2 to 4 inches look good. For atlanta, it looks close to snow with a near isothermal layer near freezing. i mean it's right on the line with temps just barely above freezing aloft Any other time this wave would be getting tons of attention..now it's mostly an after thought..amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 850 line looks like it's either right over or just south of ATL at 36. It looks to me like at 5h it's going to phase later than the 6z. Only time will tell.The southern energy however at 36 is much stronger over around the Dallas area and the energy diving down the Rockies this should be fun to watch here in a couple frames Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 09Z SREF plumes are looking really good for WNC. Here is the graph for KHKY. The mean is around 7.5 inches. The max is greater than 20 inches. Of course, the min is also just above 1 inch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 wow..nam is is quite a bit colder at 850mb at hour 33 vs the 06z run. Could mean more snow for north ga/upstate if it holds but too soon to say yet.! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 09Z SREF plumes are looking really good for WNC. Here is the graph for KHKY. The mean is around 7.5 inches. The max is greater than 20 inches. Of course, the min is also just above 1 inch...GSP mean was around the same, highest member was a tick under 25! Phone messes up every time I try to pull up the CLT plume Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 42 is less wet along the gulf looks like that phasing is delayed as burger was mentioning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 NAM is DEF colder at 2m, as you said Chris. Looking much colder for many so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Looks like it will phase later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 NAM looks like it's going to be further east.. the phase is delayed a bit.. and digging a bit farther SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Some interaction starting at 48 but yea I don't think this will translate well for northwest areas sure helps NC and such Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Goodness...This again, sorry broken record..lol is MUCH colder here in GA and well most of the areas around us at 2m through hr 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 NAM is DEF colder at 2m, as you said Chris. Looking much colder for many so far. All snow through hour 48 here so far. Looks sleety in atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 The upstream ridge ahead of the trough is a lot flatter.. that'll keep the warm nose at bay.. at least for western areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Energy is weaker out west but look out as there is energy diving down from the NW. This is about to get juiced quick. @51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 Energy is weaker out west but look out as there is energy diving down from the NW. This is about to get juiced quick. @51 DOn't know if the NAM will do it.. but the 5h looks primed for a bomb still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 @57 it's turning. Wild look with 2m and 850's. Colder than 6z run on the SV map it has a loop around WNC of sub freezing 2m temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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