FallsLake Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 For RDU folks, not sure what I think about the latest runs. Looks like both the NAM and GFS setup the significant wintery precip line around the US 1 corridor. Snow fall maps for both models have 6+ inches from about US 1 westward with a very sharp drop off to the east. 850s would scream that a lot of this was ice, so I would halve this to about 3" (of snow, sleet, freezing rain) from US1 to actually 6+ near the Triad. Just what I see in the models. I will say we are on the line. We do not want this thing to go anymore westward. In fact even a weaker storm is good. EDIT: NAM: http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/nam/221/maps/2014/02/10/06/NAM_221_2014021006_F81_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png GFS http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/gfs/3/maps/2014/02/10/06/GFS_3_2014021006_F78_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Op euro and eps now match perfectly with snow totals just over a foot for franklin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Op euro and eps now match perfectly with snow totals just over a foot for franklin. Go big or go home right Franklin! All in all the models this morning are trending great in our neck of the woods. Most should be really happy this morning. Also wow at the expanse of winter storm watches out this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'm not too concerned with the Euro. I'll take my chances being that close to the sleet. I think 1-3 is way too conservative for CLT. GSP more than likely has the right of it with 4-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 00z GEFS keeps the low off shore and it looks like 6z GEFS is going to do the same. Now it's the Euro vs. the NAM/CMC/GFS and UKMet. Will be interesting to see who wins out. Looks like 6z GEFS keeps the track just inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 00z GEFS keeps the low off shore and it looks like 6z GEFS is going to do the same. Now it's the Euro vs. the NAM/CMC/GFS and UKMet. Will be interesting to see who wins out.I am a little conflicted on what to believe as I'm sure you, and most folks on the mixing lines, are. Normally there is a NW trend as we near go time with these southern systems, which makes me think the GFS may shift towards the other models. I know that the nam tends to over amp systems which means the qpf totals won't be as insane as they look, and that it may shift east a bit due to being weaker. The euro tends to hold energy back too long which would mean the phase may not happen as far west as it's showing if our energy is a little more progressive. It's no fun being on the line. Luckily, I don't see getting a significant amount of freezing rain because I think (and hope) it will be primarily snow and sleet.The bottom line is that the western half of NC will get a major winter storm no matter which model is correct. I just don't know if it will be 2 inches of concrete or 6 inches of mashed potatoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 packfan 98: For our county if it's all snow (best scenario) we will cash in with 9-12+. However we are on the transition line and 40 mile shift east-west is gonna tell the tale. Right now worst case modled for us is 3 inches on the front followed by another inch of sleet, then 1-3 on the backside. Compact that down and you will end up with an accum of 5 inches. Not concerned at the moment for having to deal with any freezing rain. However it shakes out we are gonna have a nice winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10below Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 packfan 98: For our county if it's all snow (best scenario) we will cash in with 9-12+. However we are on the transition line and 40 mile shift east-west is gonna tell the tale. Right now worst case modled for us is 3 inches on the front followed by another inch of sleet, then 1-3 on the backside. Compact that down and you will end up with an accum of 5 inches. Not concerned at the moment for having to deal with any freezing rain. However it shakes out we are gonna have a nice winter storm. Bro, you better not have just jinxed us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 packfan 98: For our county if it's all snow (best scenario) we will cash in with 9-12+. However we are on the transition line and 40 mile shift east-west is gonna tell the tale. Right now worst case modled for us is 3 inches on the front followed by another inch of sleet, then 1-3 on the backside. Compact that down and you will end up with an accum of 5 inches. Not concerned at the moment for having to deal with any freezing rain. However it shakes out we are gonna have a nice winter storm. The 6z nam was crazy. The bufkit data shows 2.3 inches of snow, followed by .12" sleet, .99" of FREEZING RAIN, and then it switches back to snow and we get 6.9 more inches! What a mess that would be. Here's the meteogram for GSO for the latest nam and gfs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 NWS GSP Update Tuesday 10FEB14 5:57am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 RGEM not as amped up has a 1037 high parked over NY/PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 00z GEFS keeps the low off shore and it looks like 6z GEFS is going to do the same. Now it's the Euro vs. the NAM/CMC/GFS and UKMet. Will be interesting to see who wins out. Looks like 6z GEFS keeps the track just inland. I am not concerned with sleet myself. The models always underestimate the CAD and the I inyesity should make this mainly snow with IP/zr during slow periods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 NWS RDU Winter Weather Statement Public Presentation Slide Issued 10FEB14 6:30am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Current watches and warnings: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 News 14 Nam model for Charlotte area Check out @TWCNews_CLTWX's Tweet: https://twitter.com/TWCNews_CLTWX/status/432857994896736256 Gfs Check out @TWCNews_CLTWX's Tweet: https://twitter.com/TWCNews_CLTWX/status/432858780900937728 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I wouldn't say you are ground zero..I think those "honors" will go to augusta over toward columbia. That area has consistently been shown to go below freezing early. At least the models have consistently insisted that I will be without power for days If this actually happens, it will be the most ice I have ever seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 9z SREF also looks to setup the "surface freezing line" in lines with RAH (US 401 westward). http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=075ℑ=data%2Fsref%2F09%2Fsref_namer_075_2m_temp.gif&model=sref&area=namer¶m=2m_temp&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize= This would be a major ice storm for Raleigh westward (..to where the snow/sleet predomanates more) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colawx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 At least the models have consistently insisted that I will be without power for days If this actually happens, it will be the most ice I have ever seen prec (1).png plotter (7).png plotter (6).png What time on Tuesday is the forcast to begin for us in Columbia? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 WRAL going with this for Tuesday before the main event Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 9z sref. Definitely wetter and further NW when compared to 3z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 What time on Tuesday is the forcast to begin for us in Columbia? It should start in the afternoon, but when when we change over/drop below freezing, is still open for discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 SREF looks like a raging sleet storm between Shelby and CLT to GSO to RDU. This one is gonna be too close to call...but that precip total is great. 1.25 in CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 6z NAM gives CLT 4" of Snow and 1.69" of FZR while the 6z GFS gives us 4.5" of snow and just under 3/4 of an inch of ice based on the Cobb output. That isn't counting the 2" of snow the GFS has in round 1 on tomorrow. 6z NAM: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=namm&site=kclt 6z GFS: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfsm&site=kclt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I checked the soundings on the NAM and there's no way that's FZRN. So that's good news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I checked the soundings on the NAM and there's no way that's FZRN. So that's good news Man you are in a sweet spot for all snow or damn close to it. Sure looks a like a foot plus is possible where are at. You think that might make this winter OK overall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I checked the soundings on the NAM and there's no way that's FZRN. So that's good news Hmm when? I see ZR from 5-11pm at CLT on Wed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 here goes another round of craziness...I swear I don't sleep..hah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Man you are in a sweet spot for all snow or damn close to it. Sure looks a like a foot plus is possible where are at. You think that might make this winter OK overall? If it does happen, it's amazing the stature this winter will have achieved considering we all but threw away December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 HR 9 the southern energy is further south than the 6z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwisephotog Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 does anyone have the qpf output of the 9z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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