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The Big One - Forecast & Discussion


Wow

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It was a hair colder and further east than the 00z run, but not by a lot. BTW, major backside snows for central NC that were in the sleet zone during much of the event. Looks to be from the 850 low. Maybe I can get some sleep now.

The mountains yet nailed with this run. Looks like a foot plus in some areas. 

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Looks like nearly every mountain location and directly adjacent foothill location gets near a foot.

Lol Ya it does. I'll take this run. Looks like we get a deformation band or somethin setting up to the west in TN and AL that plows through here. Some good lift from that and we would be seeing some very impressive totals.

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Also I really hope that low hugs the coast because that would  really enhance the snow thrown back into here.

With the track of the 850mb low, the possibility of upslope enhancement is possible along the eastern escarpment of the blue ridge. Someone will get massive totals in the mountains. All of this assuming the euro and nam are correct with the placement of that feature, GSP seems to think it will track through the piedmont, so that's good.

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With the track of the 850mb low, the possibility of upslope enhancement is possible along the eastern escarpment of the blue ridge. Someone will get massive totals in the mountains. All of this assuming the euro and nam are correct with the placement of that feature, GSP seems to think it will track through the piedmont, so that's good.

Ya I like the track. Hard to bet against the Euro. Has been rock solid with this event so far as Larry stated earlier. I agree on the totals also. This signals big time enhancement along the mountains.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
420 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014

GAZ005>009-013>016-021>025-101730-
/O.NEW.KFFC.WS.W.0002.140211T0000Z-140212T0000Z/
/O.EXT.KFFC.WS.A.0003.140212T0000Z-140213T1200Z/
MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-
CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DAHLONEGA...CLEVELAND...GAINESVILLE
420 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
EST TUESDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7
PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY.

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA...MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM CHATSWORTH TO CANTON TO DANIELSVILLE.

* HAZARD TYPES...MAINLY SNOW WITH SOME SLEET.

* ACCUMULATIONS...BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES OF SNOW DURING THE
WARNING PERIOD ON TUESDAY. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE WATCH PERIOD FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.

* TIMING...RAIN MONDAY NIGHT WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY SUNRISE
TUESDAY MORNING...OCCASIONALLY MIXING WITH SLEET DURING THE DAY.
ALL SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

* IMPACTS...SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ON ROADS MAKING FOR HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...NEARLY STEADY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TUESDAY NIGHT AND
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...
AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$
 

 

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
420 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014

GAZ005>009-013>016-021>025-101730-
/O.NEW.KFFC.WS.W.0002.140211T0000Z-140212T0000Z/
/O.EXT.KFFC.WS.A.0003.140212T0000Z-140213T1200Z/
MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-
CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DAHLONEGA...CLEVELAND...GAINESVILLE
420 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
EST TUESDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7
PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY.

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA...MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM CHATSWORTH TO CANTON TO DANIELSVILLE.

* HAZARD TYPES...MAINLY SNOW WITH SOME SLEET.

* ACCUMULATIONS...BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES OF SNOW DURING THE
WARNING PERIOD ON TUESDAY. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE WATCH PERIOD FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.

* TIMING...RAIN MONDAY NIGHT WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY SUNRISE
TUESDAY MORNING...OCCASIONALLY MIXING WITH SLEET DURING THE DAY.
ALL SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

* IMPACTS...SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ON ROADS MAKING FOR HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...NEARLY STEADY IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TUESDAY NIGHT AND
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...
AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$

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I wouldn't say you are ground zero..I think those "honors" will go to augusta over toward columbia. That area has consistently been shown to go below freezing early. As for macon, man it's a tough tough call. Macon itself looks right on the line but if you go any distance at all to the north and east you have the models showing freezing temps and soon enough that it accumulates to damaging levels. It's hard to imagine though with wedging this strong that macon doesn't reach freezing by some point. This is especially true if you look at 925mb, 950mb to 975mb temps..where they are subfreezing at macon early on (hour 60). That is a pretty good sign.

 

I haven't followed macon a lot but just glancing at it,  the gfs soundings show macon at 0.8c at 12z wed. Which is a full degree colder than the prior run. I don't know what it was showing before the 18z run but that's a decent drop in one run. I'm not even going to count the nam because I think it's out to lunch with it's thermal profile even up here.  It's far enough out that there is still time for macon to be shown to get there. It's not going to take much.

 

edit to add. 950 to 975 drops subfreezing by hour 54 on the gfs and 925 by hour 60. Another site shows macon at just 0.2c while even the 1000mb level is below freezing. 925 to 950 gets down to -2c at hour 60 and as low as -3.6c at 950 at 66 and -4.2c at 72. 975mb temps are as low as -2c at hour 60 and down to -3c at hour 72. If I was seeing that here, I'd certainly think I'd be seeing ice because those are solid numbers for those levels.

 

I would say odds are good macon gets below freezing after seeing that and will see significant ice. In fact, if the slower models are correct although maybe not completely ground zero, macon very well could have more than it wants. That is certainly possible if not likely just to the north and east based on these numbers I've just seen.

Thank You for the awesome reply and great work.  I really appreciate it!!

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