nchighcountrywx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 For Charlotte, I would go with 1-3 inches of snow followed by 2-3 inches of sleet...I think the warming aloft will win out In agreement with that as of the 0z ECMWF for Charlotte. It could be a lot of sleet due to the warm nose aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The Euro is quite a strange solution. It crushes the Mid-Atlantic from DC westward, but runs inland in New England and actually rains on NYC and Boston while crushing inland areas as it bombs out. It would be kind of bizarre to see a huge snowstorm here from the same storm that gives NYC and Boston rain. Hmm... There's no doubt that the track is a little too close for comfort for GSO and CLT. I guess you have to hear the sleet to get the most snow (or so the saying goes), but we're really toeing that line... The Euro might be too amped up, though, so we shall see. This is truly one of those cases of perfect timing for a winter storm in the southeast. There's a nice 500mb trough that rotates just north of the Great Lakes, then over into SE Canada, which builds in cold high pressure behind it and suppresses the storm track to the south. But the NAO is positive, and as the SE Canada trough slides east, the sfc high moves off the New England coast, and the sfc low is allowed to climb the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Chris, given seeing the euro and GFS, you thinking I'm a cold ass 34 and rain? or is this ground zero? I wouldn't say you are ground zero..I think those "honors" will go to augusta over toward columbia. That area has consistently been shown to go below freezing early. As for macon, man it's a tough tough call. Macon itself looks right on the line but if you go any distance at all to the north and east you have the models showing freezing temps and soon enough that it accumulates to damaging levels. It's hard to imagine though with wedging this strong that macon doesn't reach freezing by some point. This is especially true if you look at 925mb, 950mb to 975mb temps..where they are subfreezing at macon early on (hour 60). That is a pretty good sign. I haven't followed macon a lot but just glancing at it, the gfs soundings show macon at 0.8c at 12z wed. Which is a full degree colder than the prior run. I don't know what it was showing before the 18z run but that's a decent drop in one run. I'm not even going to count the nam because I think it's out to lunch with it's thermal profile even up here. It's far enough out that there is still time for macon to be shown to get there. It's not going to take much. edit to add. 950 to 975 drops subfreezing by hour 54 on the gfs and 925 by hour 60. Another site shows macon at just 0.2c while even the 1000mb level is below freezing. 925 to 950 gets down to -2c at hour 60 and as low as -3.6c at 950 at 66 and -4.2c at 72. 975mb temps are as low as -2c at hour 60 and down to -3c at hour 72. If I was seeing that here, I'd certainly think I'd be seeing ice because those are solid numbers for those levels. I would say odds are good macon gets below freezing after seeing that and will see significant ice. In fact, if the slower models are correct although maybe not completely ground zero, macon very well could have more than it wants. That is certainly possible if not likely just to the north and east based on these numbers I've just seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I almost forgot about the first one. I don't think many believed atlanta would get much out of this one, certainly not any freezing rain. However this run is colder aloft a tiny bit than prior runs but not impressive with amounts. I think the transition is somewhere in the northern burbs. This run shows maybe an inch or two in rome, gainesville, athens, etc. But some of the moisture would go to cooling the surface and would melt/not stick. Although any amount will just add to the insanity. Oh and about those 2 meter temps, I wouldn't judge what happens snow wise with this first system based on the euro's surface temps. the euro doesn't have a good record in my book with surface temps/cooling in a situation like this (precip of any kind, much less frozen). nam/gfs shows freezing/wetbulb zero levels are low enough that if precip falls in areas that are initially in the mid to upper 30s, it should changeover. There should only be a small area of sleet between the snow and rain. I don't see any freezing rain anywhere with it. I agree. I continue to think the Euro is too warm on Tuesday and think it will get to 32 much earlier than the 0z Euro shows assuming there is steady precip. then falling. How it can be near 32 F 4,000 feet above the ground from north ATL burbs to AHN with steady precip. having fallen for several hours, a cold high building in (providing cold brisk NE winds), and it stay ~36-38 at two meters is beyond me. Granted, the wedging is just then starting to get going. Regardless, I'd attribute it to its warm bias if it does really end up a good bit colder during the day Tuesday. I hope there's steady precip. falling then so we can see if it several degrees too warm like I suspect. However, I did see that the model cooled things later though I still think it is too warm in ATL, especially in the N burbs where the 850 is near 0C. By the way, I saved the 12Z Euro's 2 meter maps. Bedtime soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernWx2 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 This system reminds me of the icestorm my folks told me about back in the 70s where they went over 2 weeks without power. I don't envy those that are going to be hit with the major freezing rain accumulations.....at all. This isn't your typical 0.25 ice storm here. Yeah Lookout....this reminds me a lot of January 7-9, 1973. That began as about 1-2" snow in the Atlanta area then went quickly to freezing rain and sleet. At KATL it totalled 3.91"....3.48" of that falling within a 24 hour period. I don't know how much rain fell at my home in Douglasville, but have never seen an ice storm as destructive or frightening to experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yeah Lookout....this reminds me a lot of January 7-9, 1973. That began as about 1-2" snow in the Atlanta area then went quickly to freezing rain and sleet. At KATL it totalled 3.91"....3.48" of that falling within a 24 hour period. I don't know how much rain fell at my home in Douglasville, but have never seen an ice storm as destructive or frightening to experience. Perry, Tony said that a lot of that ZR fell with the temp.'s right at 32 in Buckhead for many hours in 1/1973 and yet it was still cold enough for major damage and bad driving problems. That's one reason I've been stressing that a 31-32 ZR storm shouldn't be taken lightly just because it is borderline. By the way, the non-NAM models, with their +1 to +2 C 850's, continue to suggest to me that much of the ATL-AHN area would get much more IP than ZR (major ZR still likely MCN imo) and that it could be similar to 2/1979 and 1/1988. However, the NAM, which is likely overdoing precip. and making it too warm at 850 is giving ATL-AHN severe ZR. I'm not buying it right now since the NAM is an outlier and tends to overdo things pretty badly (like for the prior winter storm..it had SAV-CHS with 1.5" of qpf at times. SAV ended up with only ~0.30-40"!) though I'm not dismissing the possibility ATL-AHN do end up with more ZR than IP/major ZR should a north/warmer trend on the consensus commence soon. Well the Euro has been absolutely superb overall! The King is back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Contours are in: Looks like ECMWF was weighted heavily Snow Freezing Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Contours are in: wow, Boone is looking pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Contours are in: Still seems very conservative given the increasing consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernWx2 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Perry, Tony said that a lot of that ZR fell with the temp.'s right at 32 in Buckhead for many hours in 1/1973 and yet it was still cold enough for major damage and bad driving problems. That's one reason I've been stressing that a 31-32 ZR storm shouldn't be taken lightly just because it is borderline. By the way, the non-NAM models, with their +1 to +2 C 850's, continue to suggest to me that much of the ATL-AHN area would get much more IP than ZR (major ZR still likely MCN imo) and that it could be similar to 2/1979 and 1/1988. However, the NAM, which is likely overdoing precip. and making it too warm at 850 is giving ATL-AHN severe ZR. I'm not buying it right now since the NAM is an outlier and tends to overdo things pretty badly (like for the prior winter storm..it had SAV-CHS with 1.5" of qpf at times. SAV ended up with only ~0.30-40"!) though I'm not dismissing the possibility ATL-AHN do end up with more ZR than IP/major ZR should a north trend on the consensus commence soon. Well the Euro has been absolutely superb overall! The King is back! Larry, my dad said that during the height of the 1973 ice storm, the temp on our thermometer hovered around 31 degrees. I hope and pray this storm is closer to 2/79 than 1/73.....but am worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Still seems very conservative given the increasing consensus. That's about as good as you can hope for 2-3 days out. Looks good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 That map shows pretty low probabilities for even Ice for atl. 40% or less chance of greater than .25" and you go 40 miles west of atl and virtually no chance of .25" ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yeah Lookout....this reminds me a lot of January 7-9, 1973. That began as about 1-2" snow in the Atlanta area then went quickly to freezing rain and sleet. At KATL it totalled 3.91"....3.48" of that falling within a 24 hour period. I don't know how much rain fell at my home in Douglasville, but have never seen an ice storm as destructive or frightening to experience. And it was all z rain on me in Buckhead. I'd loved to have seen some snow or sleet. You could hear it in the trees pretty quick, and I remember by midnight or 1 I was begging it to stop. I could see by a flashlight how bad it was. Just hoping the wind would stop...then the cracking started, and the booming. And the blue lights in the dark. That was a bad, bad night. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Larry, my dad said that during the height of the 1973 ice storm, the temp on our thermometer hovered around 31 degrees. I hope and pray this storm is closer to 2/79 than 1/73.....but am worried. Well, in the southern ATL burbs including your area, there is obviously a higher chance for major ZR. However, I'm guessing even down to you and Tony that there'd still be a good bit of IP. We'll see. It is an easier call in the city and northward though the crazy NAM says maybe not fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 That map shows pretty low probabilities for even Ice for atl. 40% or less chance of greater than .25" and you go 40 miles west of atl and virtually no chance of .25" ice. You read it right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'm not so worried. In cad it's always colder, and with sleet and snow close by I'm usually in that zone. If I was guessing I'd say from Barnesville down would be the ice line. If it's north of me, it'll be Hampton...but I think it's south. Whatever, I've got a generator, and got some food in today, and I'm getting an extra propane space heater tomorrow, so I'm way more prepared than I was for the other really, really bad ones. I don't mind a half, or an inch to thin the pines, but over an inch...stay away. Don't want to ever go there again. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernWx2 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 And it was all z rain on me in Buckhead. I'd loved to have seen some snow or sleet. You could hear it in the trees pretty quick, and I remember by midnight or 1 I was begging it to stop. I could see by a flashlight how bad it was. Just hoping the wind would stop...then the cracking started, and the booming. And the blue lights in the dark. That was a bad, bad night. T Yeah Tony....it was the same way in Douglasville. Sounded like a war zone outside with power transformers exploding, trees and tree limbs snapping. The ice load was so heavy it pulled the power post/ wires from our roof.....without any limbs down; just the sheer weight of the ice. I've never seen anything like it in Georgia since and hope I never do again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The 03z SREF looks a bit further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The 03z SREF looks a bit further east. Yes. It's colder at 850 compared to 21z, as well. I'll take it because I need this thing less amplified if I want to get mostly snow... The Euro's solution has me a bit nervous that I'd be in the pingers for a lot more time than I'd like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 And it was all z rain on me in Buckhead. I'd loved to have seen some snow or sleet. You could hear it in the trees pretty quick, and I remember by midnight or 1 I was begging it to stop. I could see by a flashlight how bad it was. Just hoping the wind would stop...then the cracking started, and the booming. And the blue lights in the dark. That was a bad, bad night. T Yeah I hope nobody gets ice like that. I remember the ice storm in 1979. After I lost power, I would look out into the dark night and see pink and green flashes of light and the tree limbs popping sounded like firecrackers. It was awesome and eerie at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yes. It's colder at 850 compared to 21z, as well. I'll take it because I need this thing less amplified if I want to get mostly snow... The Euro's solution has me a bit nervous that I'd be in the pingers for a lot more time than I'd like. Ensembles out yet? Kinda interested to see if they're east of op, I would assume it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yeah Tony....it was the same way in Douglasville. Sounded like a war zone outside with power transformers exploding, trees and tree limbs snapping. The ice load was so heavy it pulled the power post/ wires from our roof.....without any limbs down; just the sheer weight of the ice. I've never seen anything like it in Georgia since and hope I never do again. Perry, I think that's the saving grace. It is so rare to not waste any rain, but have it all be zr. There are just so many variables with warm pockets, and with a storm so strong the heat will be immense. I just can't fathom seeing two 200 year ice storms in a life time, lol. I had one in the 80's down here that was almost as bad, at least in fear factor. I think it was mostly sleet in Atl, but we got clobbered. Our power was out 10 days, and the crews had it back in Atl 73 in a week, lol. I can tell you that extra 3 days counts a lot. I was better prepared for 2, but how do you prepare for destruction like that? And so many new folks in the area, so many kids not born to see either of them. There will be minds blown when this is over to beat the band if it's a major z monster. I've told Larry if Alt gets another 73 with all those millions in there now, who don't have a clue how southern weather can bite... there will be lots of deaths. All those live lines down, not the mention the huge limbs falling. And to me the criminal act will be there is a precedent for a storm like that, and no one up there knows how to act, or what to expect. I'd have been teaching kindergarten kids since 73 what to do if they encounter a downed line, because there will be thousands if that ever occurs again. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The 0Z UKMET suggests to me mainly IP in the ATL-AHN-AGS-CAE area based on largely +1 to +3 850's. However, CAE looks like it may change to ZR later and MCN looks like mainly ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Ensembles out yet? Kinda interested to see if they're east of op, I would assume it is. No, the bar graphs for the ensemble members probably won't be out on WeatherBell until around 6 AM. If I think about it, I'll post them in the morning before heading out, but no guarantees... I would also think they're east of the op given the past runs, but we'll see. EDIT: A Mid-Atlantic poster (who must have StormVista) just noted that the Euro ensembles are east of the operational, so they're probably slightly colder and not quite as wet, if I had to guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yeah I hope nobody gets ice like that. I remember the ice storm in 1979. After I lost power, I would look out into the dark night and see pink and green flashes of light and the tree limbs popping sounded like firecrackers. It was awesome and eerie at the same time. I though it was the battle of Atlanta all over again It must have been what it sounded like. I had a power station back behind Lenox Sq just the other side of the woods, and it was amazing the sounds that came out of there, and the lightening on the ground. And the whole time you're just hoping you'll live somehow, lol. Now I have high tension lines running through the yard, between our houses. I could see getting trapped in my house, but I had a F0 go through during Ivan, and knocked those lines down, and nothing. It turned out when my lines went they blew the power station, and the whole area for a mile or more got knocked out. They came to fix us first, lol. So I might luck out this time, and get power back sooner, if it goes T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The 0Z UKMET suggests to me mainly IP in the ATL-AHN-AGS-CAE area based on largely +1 to +3 850's. However, CAE looks like it may change to ZR later and MCN looks like mainly ZR. We are actually out of prime zr climo now, aren't we? Kind of a lull, then back to a cluster of sn/ip storms after the 20th? The amounts of precip would suggest zr, but climo would be more inclined to sleet? T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 6z nam - cold and drier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 6z nam - cold and drier It's slower, but at h66 it's going boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It's slower, but at h66 it's going boom. a bit warmer at 69, but alot of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It's slower, but at h66 it's going boom. Yea, it's slightly drier, but not by much. Still further west than other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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