Lookout Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 72 hours, 0c 850 has retreated back south over north ga...low in south ga. western half of nc is all snow on this run..at least an inch liquid. 2 to 3 inch liquid across ga/sc. 2 inch mark runs from atlanta to athens and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 What's the sleet/snow line looking like in NC? Around highway 1 or east or west of that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 euro looks quite a bit colder at 12z wed across our state Chris...Especially down this way. Sure is. Freezing line gets almost to the alabama line. Atlanta is down to around 29 or 30 it looks like. Atlanta and the northern burbs still mainly sleet? hard to say but the surface is certainly below freezing now. Two things i gather from tonights run. This system is going to be extremely wet and cold...and the nam is not totally out to lunch with truly extreme precip totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 72 hours, 0c 850 has retreated back south over north ga...low in south ga. western half of nc is all snow on this run..at least an inch liquid. 2 to 3 inch liquid across ga/sc. 2 inch mark runs from atlanta to athens and south. Chris, All those cad events we followed over at peach state wx back in the day.... Never can remember a wedge like this one with so much qpf over running. The amounts are insane. Snow/sleet/ ice .... Doesn't matter. It's a remarkable event to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 one consensus from the 00z runs that 2-3" liquid equivalents are falling through the SE, particularly in GA/SC on all the runs. and aside from the NAM, consensus is getting colder. the CMC just annihilates the SC Midlands and it looked like the parent high wasn't as strong as some of the other depictions. I'm thinking we're going to see the parent high eventually clocking in somewhere close to 1040mb and definitely think the wedge will keep the low from tracking inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Sure is. Freezing line gets almost to the alabama line. Atlanta is down to around 29 or 30 it looks like. hard to say but the surface is certainly below freezing now. Two things i gather from tonights run. This system is going to be extremely wet and cold...and the nam is not totally out to lunch with truly extreme precip totals. Thanks so much man! Sounds interesting maybe the NAM is onto something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 What's the sleet/snow line looking like in NC? Around highway 1 or east or west of that? I can't say with the sleet but just going by the 0c 850s, it doesn't look like it changes over from around GSO to charlotte and westward. All snow west of there. I'm sure others can say with better certainty but it looks like a pretty bad ice storm after some front end snow for rdu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'd hate to be on the bullseye wherever the freezing rain sets up. I'm afraid some areas are going to be weeks in recovery. I've been in a few severe ice storms and the fun is over by day two. Overall it is a miserable experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman874 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Hows the 1-82 cooridor looking in Mississippi? From around Columbus South? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Wow, the 00z Euro is close here. 850s rise just above freezing for a short time before crashing again. Verbatim, we probably change over for a little bit, but it still might be a 10"+ storm with 1.2" QPF. Wow. And with such heavy rates, you might be able to get enough dynamic cooling to keep you snow... CLT is in about the same boat as GSO. The low tracks a hair inland, which certainly isn't ideal at all. I'm surprised 850s are as cold as they are. I tend to think the Euro might be a bit too amped up with the track, but we'll see. Looks like 2m temperatures are in the mid to upper 20s for most of the wintry areas. BTW, the Euro drops 20"+ near DC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 On Euro, looks like the 850mb low runs from Atlanta, to Charlotte, to between Greensboro and Raleigh. 850mb temps stay below freezing Asheville to Hickory to near Winston-Salem. QPF is 1.0 to 1.3 in the NC foothills and mountains. I'd be greasing up the snow plows if I were in the NC foothills and mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Lookout, still looking like mostly a rain event in east al and west ga? by hour 60, temps are at or below freezing almost to the alabama line west of atlanta. Afterwards it looks like around 0.75 or there abouts falls. Keep in mind the euro might be a degree or two too warm here, in which case temps probably drop below freezing into alabama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I would say this is getting very close to the GFS thermally, but still probably not cold enough. EURO has 2.9" Total QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 by hour 60, temps are at or below freezing almost to the alabama line west of atlanta. Afterwards it looks like around 0.75 or there abouts falls. Keep in mind the euro might be a degree or two too warm here, in which case temps probably drop below freezing into alabama. The Euro has moved towards my idea ATL is mainly liquid Tuesday with maybe some RASN or RAPL 12-15z at times...it's got 3-4C now on 2 meter temps til 21z or so but it's 0.8c by 06z I still think around 20-00z is when the 32 line passes through and south of them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 by hour 60, temps are at or below freezing almost to the alabama line west of atlanta. Afterwards it looks like around 0.75 or there abouts falls. Keep in mind the euro might be a degree or two too warm here, in which case temps probably drop below freezing into alabama. thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 On Euro, looks like the 850mb low runs from Atlanta, to Charlotte, to between Greensboro and Raleigh. 850mb temps stay below freezing Asheville to Hickory to near Winston-Salem. QPF is 1.0 to 1.3 in the NC foothills and mountains. I'd be greasing up the snow plows if I were in the NC foothills and mountains. Looks like the mostly snow line runs really close to 85. IPJ looks to stay all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hartselleweather Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 http://i62.tinypic.com/f563bpng I gladly take that and call it a winter. After how it has been so far. Very hard to predict on the modeling. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 On Euro, looks like the 850mb low runs from Atlanta, to Charlotte, to between Greensboro and Raleigh. 850mb temps stay below freezing Asheville to Hickory to near Winston-Salem. QPF is 1.0 to 1.3 in the NC foothills and mountains. I'd be greasing up the snow plows if I were in the NC foothills and mountains. Again thanks griteater for the rundown. Going to be an exciting couple of days here in the mountains and foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'd hate to be on the bullseye wherever the freezing rain sets up. I'm afraid some areas are going to be weeks in recovery. I've been in a few severe ice storms and the fun is over by day two. Overall it is a miserable experience. This system reminds me of the icestorm my folks told me about back in the 70s where they went over 2 weeks without power. I don't envy those that are going to be hit with the major freezing rain accumulations.....at all. This isn't your typical 0.25 ice storm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Euro sfc low track is just inland of the Carolina coast...then to Norfolk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 by hour 60, temps are at or below freezing almost to the alabama line west of atlanta. Afterwards it looks like around 0.75 or there abouts falls. Keep in mind the euro might be a degree or two too warm here, in which case temps probably drop below freezing into alabama. GFS, verbatim, was near 34ish for 2m temps down here and dropped 1" ZR *I still think thats to warm* EURO has me at 34-35 and drops 1.80" QPF in the time frame of 6z wed to 6z thur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The Euro is quite a strange solution. It crushes the Mid-Atlantic from DC westward, but runs inland in New England and actually rains on NYC and Boston while crushing inland areas as it bombs out. It would be kind of bizarre to see a huge snowstorm here from the same storm that gives NYC and Boston rain. Hmm... There's no doubt that the track is a little too close for comfort for GSO and CLT. I guess you have to hear the sleet to get the most snow (or so the saying goes), but we're really toeing that line... The Euro might be too amped up, though, so we shall see. EDIT: The more I look at it, the more I think the solution would be painful because a lot of QPF might be wasted as sleet. Ugh. The good news is that the Euro is probably too far inland and amped, IMO, so it may be irrelevant. At this point, I'd personally rather take the GFS' all-snow solution to the bank, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Comments on 0z ECMWF Initial frontogenisis just south of NC/SC Border extending eastward around Fayetteville to Morehead City Line. Then the storm winds up. Surface low up the coast just inland from the coast. The 850 center starts near GSP and moves just a few miles NW of Charlotte to just NW of RDU. Total QPF is copious: NC NW Mountains: 1.1 CLT: 1.5 RDU: 1.3 SE of FAY: 3.0 CAE: 2.6 If the 850 line is a good indication, snow line is Shelby to Hickory to Taylorsville on to the NE. Areas to the South and East of this line appear to be Sleet/Freezing Rain. Appears to be major Sleet/Freezing Rain Storm across SC Midlands during day on Wednesday with the lift out to the NE after sunset. The WAA starts moving northward out of SC around 100pm Wednesday. Remains to be seen if the 850 track is as far west as depicted on this run. If this run is right, the snow winners will be North and West of the Shelby-Lincolnton-Hickory Line. Expect more slight variations on the 12z and next 0z runs. Amazing storm given no -NAO is in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtomlinwx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Feel like Euro sfc temps too warm given the snowpack to the N. 850 temps stay above freezing through much of the event, save for maybe an inch or two of snow at the onset for RDU. With surface temps hovering around freezing and my expectation of sfc temps being modeled too warm, looks like RDU is going to be right on the line of a very cold 33 degree rain and a crippling .5-1" ice storm. Hoping things trend snowier through tomorrow and Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 What a run. Definitely has me excited! Gonna be tough to focus in school tomorrow for sure! Pretty much every model (apart from the NAM) seems to be trending slightly colder with just about every run. If it continues to do that, who knows where we'll be standing by this afternoon? Goodnight y'all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The Euro has moved towards my idea ATL is mainly liquid Tuesday with maybe some RASN or RAPL 12-15z at times...it's got 3-4C now on 2 meter temps til 21z or so but it's 0.8c by 06z I still think around 20-00z is when the 32 line passes through and south of them I almost forgot about the first one. I don't think many believed atlanta would get much out of this one, certainly not any freezing rain. However this run is colder aloft a tiny bit than prior runs but not impressive with amounts. I think the transition is somewhere in the northern burbs. This run shows maybe an inch or two in rome, gainesville, athens, etc. But some of the moisture would go to cooling the surface and would melt/not stick. Although any amount will just add to the insanity. Oh and about those 2 meter temps, I wouldn't judge what happens snow wise with this first system based on the euro's surface temps. the euro doesn't have a good record in my book with surface temps/cooling in a situation like this (precip of any kind, much less frozen). nam/gfs shows freezing/wetbulb zero levels are low enough that if precip falls in areas that are initially in the mid to upper 30s, it should changeover. There should only be a small area of sleet between the snow and rain. I don't see any freezing rain anywhere with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Chris, given seeing the euro and GFS, you thinking I'm a cold ass 34 and rain? or is this ground zero? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 For Charlotte, I would go with 1-3 inches of snow followed by 2-3 inches of sleet...I think the warming aloft will win out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernWx2 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 72 hours, 0c 850 has retreated back south over north ga...low in south ga. western half of nc is all snow on this run..at least an inch liquid. 2 to 3 inch liquid across ga/sc. 2 inch mark runs from atlanta to athens and south. I hope to hannah most of that 2.00" qpf is sleet. 4-6" inches of ice pellets is bad......2" inches of freezing rain much worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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