audioguy3107 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Much better graphics for the Canadian here - http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html RGEM goes to hour 48, then GGEM picks up after hour 48 (not out yet)...make sure you have the correct model run entered That's great animation by the GGEM, you can really see the deformation band set up and pivot across north Georgia as the storm winds up. North Georgia is absolutely hammered if this comes close to verifying. Snow, sleet/frz rain, and back to snow. Atlanta will be deserted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The Canadian crushes the western half of NC with tons of snow. Probably IP/ZR further east. Hr 72: http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/492_100.gif Hr 84: http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/133_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 We've certainly had coastal plain runners. There's no good blocking for this storm, so any track is reasonable at this point. my hunch is this will be just offshore. i'm fearing a sleet storm in the triangle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Alchemist Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The WLOS MET must have seen the GFS before she went on the air... Paints 3-5 KAVL, 8-10 Saluda/H'ville and >12 for the upstate. Would this last GFS run put the models close enough to say we have a consensus? Also, will tonight's Euro run set the stage for other on air Mets to start upping the totals? My friends thought I was nuts buying tire chains last Thursday.... Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 One thing to remember though. In all the really big snowstorms I've ever seen, the mets NEVER say, before the storm begins, the accumulations will be what they turn out to be. They always give a conservative estimate before the storm begins to unfold. I know just a few minutes ago on Fox 21 the met showed the new projected snow totals map and it showed a little over 7 inches here in the Greenville area and he said he didn't buy it, that he would cut that in half. But from what I've been seeing you guys on the forums say about the total liquid content during this event, I don't see how 7 inches would be out of the question. you are correct, and i am not saying it cannot happen. But, we have several factors working against us not present in storms jan 88 and even Jan 2011, namely, the much colder air, frozen ground, and lack of mixed precipitation with those storms. Those systems resulted in higher ratios and visually 100 percent accumulation of snow that fell. Even though there may be lots of qpf, the accums will tend to be low. I'd say the 2-4 for upstate is much more realistic than 8-12 being thrown around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Well, the 12z EURO and 0z NAM are relatively close in my opinion. The storm, in my opinion, is going to wrap itself up and move up the eastern seaboard. The GFS is continuing to trend that way. The NAM is too far inland with the storm which causes the QPF to be too high, but the GFS is too far eastward, in my opinion leading to lower precipitation totals. Still yet, this is going to be a big storm for a lot of people regardless. The questions now become about where does the snow/ice/rain lines set-up and how much moisture will be pulled northward. I can appreciate what you are saying but I think the reason the NAM was too far inland was because it was simply too amped, thus the extra QPF. It sounds like you like the logic of the GFS short of the fact you would like to see it a little more amped and wet. Thanks for the discussion. What's your thought about the convective feedback issue? Does that blob of convection reflect reality in your opinion? Edit: referring to the GFS. Sorry about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 so everything coming out tonight further tells me that the NAM is on crack again this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Meteostar GFS for Wed shows temps in Charlotte in mid 20s all day. Low 20s for Greensboro. Mid 20s for GSP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 UKIE has a snow sounding for CLT(borderline but snow) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I can appreciate what you are saying but I think the reason the NAM was too far inland was because it was simply too amped, thus the extra QPF. It sounds like you like the logic of the GFS short of the fact you would like to see it a little more amped and wet. Thanks for the discussion. What's your thought about the convective feedback issue? Does that blob of convection reflect reality in your opinion? Edit: referring to the GFS. Sorry about that. I am not exactly sure what the GFS is trying to show with the convective blob, so no that does not reflect reality in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I am not exactly sure what the GFS is trying to show with the convective blob, so no that does not reflect reality in my opinion. Thanks. Lookout pointed that out earlier. So, in theory, could that be the reason for the GFS lower precip output? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Chris, what do you think about this....I used to think the qpf was really bad for NC/SC, but I really think its helping our cause by seeing more of it into those areas, especially SC to cool us down quicker...if that makes any sense..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Thanks. Lookout pointed that out earlier. So, in theory, could that be the reason for the GFS lower precip output? I am not sure honestly, it could be, but I can not say for sure. It will be interesting to see if the GFS ensemble continues to have higher precipitation means than the operational, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWeSU Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Thanks. Lookout pointed that out earlier. So, in theory, could that be the reason for the GFS lower precip output? It could be a convective feedback issue, which could mean that the model isn't expanding the qpf out far enough from the surface pressure. But the GFS could also be picking up on convective inhibition, which means that the moisture will be cut off further north until the surface low forms along the Atlantic coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I am not sure honestly, it could be, but I can not say for sure. It will be interesting to see if the GFS ensemble continues to have higher precipitation means than the operational, imo. Looking forward to those as well. Glad you found this site btw. I appreciate your posts leading up to the last event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It could be a convective feedback issue, which could mean that the model isn't expanding the qpf out far enough from the surface pressure. But the GFS could also be picking up on convective inhibition, which means that the moisture will be cut off further north until the surface low forms along the Atlantic coast. I guess if we see storms firing south of us on radar, we'll know it's not feedback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWeSU Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I guess if we see storms firing south of us on radar, we'll know it's not feedback. I guess if we see storms firing south of us on radar, we'll know it's not feedback. It's hard to say what's going to happen, but if convection lines up vertically then that could actually enhance moisture flow from the Gulf. The NAM appears to be showing this. I think that setup is more likely. But if you see convection setting up horizontally along the coast then the system could be moisture starved further north until the surface low translates into the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It's hard to say what's going to happen, but if convection lines up vertically then that could actually enhance moisture flow from the Gulf. The NAM appears to be showing this. I think that setup is more likely. But if you see convection setting up horizontally along the coast then the system could be moisture starved further north until the surface low translates into the Atlantic. I have seen one prime example of that when I lived in St. Louis in the mid-90's. Biggest storm modeled there in years and instead the Texas coast just lit up with thunderstorms and Houston became flooded. I think we got flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 Small, medium, and large Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 DT's first call... 12" here. Not bad. Too high, IMO, but I'll take it. (Should this be in banter?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 [/img] RDU nearly identical. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 ummm...uh oh?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Well the met on News 14, Doug Lindsay, just said, "this could be a big one"....are the on air guys starting to push their chips to the middle? Ed: said he giving snow forecast next update which will be 12:21am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 GEFS mean is slower than the Op but other than that it lined up fairly well, still think it's to east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 DT's first call... 12" here. Not bad. Too high, IMO, but I'll take it. (Should this be in banter?) No, it's fair game in here. I guess he's not concerned with the sleet potential mainly east of 85 some of the models are throwing out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 GEFS mean is slower than the Op but other than that it lined up fairly well, still think it's to east. What's going on with the precipitation around hours 120 and 132? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Weather bell has this neat tool where it tells you exactly how much each individual member puts down. 10 out of 20 show more than 10". Only 3 SREF members show less than 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 enjoy your power while you have it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.