Wonderdog Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Although its the SREF at 87 hours, I would think this ends up well for us: Can you explain this map to a novice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 We need a storm name? The Twonicorn! The great white hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 We need a storm name? The Twonicorn! The great white hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The fact that the wxbell Euro maps were banned from sharing may have helped reduce the clown-map chaos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Can you explain this map to a novice? The black contours are the mean heights, an average of all the ensemble members (SREF is an ensemble)....the color fill represents the spread among the solutions..those blues indicate there is a lot of spread and divergent solutions among the ensemble members, so the mean is less reliable.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Can you explain this map to a novice? I'm a novice as well but I'll try! Ian/Wes/etc feel free to interject and correct me. This shows the 500 mb heights and vort. I like to use this map as a sort of 'highway' for the storm, especially in this type of set up (Miller A). The trough (dip in the lines) is starting to go negative (its not quite negative yet at 87 hours) which hopefully will capture the surface low and bring it up the coast. Since the SREFs are a combination of 21 or so members, this map also shows the mean with the spread (fill colors). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Happy hour runs will be telling, but tonight's Euro...most important run since the last one? If we are taking name ideas (since Ian loves names) "The White Shadow". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The Heartbreaker Storm :-) reverse jinx Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I'm a novice as well but I'll try! Ian/Wes/etc feel free to interject and correct me. This shows the 500 mb heights and vort. I like to use this map as a sort of 'highway' for the storm, especially in this type of set up (Miller A). The trough (dip in the lines) is starting to go negative (its not quite negative yet at 87 hours) which hopefully will capture the surface low and bring it up the coast. Since the SREFs are a combination of 21 or so members, this map also shows the mean with the spread (fill colors). The black contours are the mean heights, an average of all the ensemble members (SREF is an ensemble)....the color fill represents the spread among the solutions..those blues indicate there is a lot of spread and divergent solutions among the ensemble members, so the mean is less reliable.. Thanks guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Enough with the stupid naming crap. Can we keep this thread to model disco until late tomorrow or early Tuesday? Anyway, 18Z NAM is running. Out to 22hr..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 EPS mean is a crushing blow...mean slightly east of the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 EPS mean is a crushing blow...mean slightly east of the op Is there a lot of spread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 EPS mean is a crushing blow...mean slightly east of the op almost 1" precip...probably some mixing for DC.S and E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 12z EPS mean looks extremely good for us EDIT: Ninja'd by snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 EPS mean is a crushing blow...mean slightly east of the op This sounds pornographic. You have some details to share? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Is there a lot of spread? I only have the mean..Bob Chill and others will get the members later..my guess is no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 almost 1" precip...probably some mixing for DC.S and E Ninja'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Hey guys, lets keep this thread on topic... model discussion only from here on out... cut the weenie crap to the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 This sounds pornographic. You have some details to share? it's basically a west-leaning classic track for us...deepening low moving from Mobile to Savannah to Hatteras to just inside the Benchmark.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2014 Author Share Posted February 9, 2014 EPS mean is a crushing blow...mean slightly east of the op That's what I was waiting for! Very nice. Wish this was 48 hours out instead of 96 though. That's a lifetime in this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2014 Author Share Posted February 9, 2014 Hey guys, lets keep this thread on topic... model discussion only from here on out... cut the weenie crap to the banter thread. Yeah, what this moderator said! Seriously....it's time to move from less banter to more storm talk. Banter is fine early on, but we're starting to hone in on the storm guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Wow- EPS is one b'dass look. A bit east. I've been out all day and just started catching up. This thread is a mess. I vote for analysis only from here on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Euro ens mean (EPS is also GFS dudes) is like .8"+ in DC.. snow bullseye is still south which is good I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Lol- got ninja'd 10 times in 2 minutes. I'll have the members at 4:45 or so. Sometimes not until 6. Wxbell is unpredictable with the ind member plots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Euro ens mean (EPS is also GFS dudes) is like .8"+ in DC.. snow bullseye is still south which is good I suppose. I like EPS acronym for euro and gefs for gfs. Don't want to confuse tho. Maybe call it EEM? Euro ens mean is cumbersome imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I like EPS acronym for euro and gefs for gfs. Don't want to confuse tho. Maybe call it EEM? Euro ens mean is cumbersome imo Given they come out at different times it probably doesn't matter. It would be interesting if this happens as Euro ens is a classic 95 snowstorm.. missing for a while but a few (lesser) this winter now. We just need to fill in the 8-12 through DC and Philly now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 it's basically a west-leaning classic track for us...deepening low moving from Mobile to Savannah to Hatteras to just inside the Benchmark.. what did we do to deserve this?...never mind that SREF mean is pretty d@mn incredible regardless of how lousy the SREFs can be however, taken in light of all the other model (and their ensembles) guidance to this point, save the GFS, this thing is shaping up the way the big ones do once you get around the magic 72 hrs. I'm not saying it's gunna' be, but it's about the best looking system with substantial guidance and ensemble support at this range since a while, and I'll leave the one I'm thinking about out of the discussion for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Wow- EPS is one b'dass look. A bit east. I've been out all day and just started catching up. This thread is a mess. I vote for analysis only from here on. Didn't there used to be a "storm mode"? If there is a time for it to be reinstated, it is now. Of course that means I'll have to shut up but, hey, better for everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CamdenfromMAWP Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Hey y'all I'm new. Anyways, does anyone have a 12z Canadian Model snowfall map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 on a related note, we might get a little help from those below normal SST right off the Atlantic coast by 1) less warmth to be brought into the system, and 2) likelihood that the slp would seek the best baroclinic zone which would be on the eastern edge of the below normal temps I would think http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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