Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 One thing I noticed going back to early in the weekend (maybe even on Fri) is that the UK and CMC have been pretty steady as she goes with this system. Perhaps with the UK more suppressed initially, but the UKMet has been more consistent than the operational ECMWF, that's for sure.. That's the way I se I would be worried about that ~925 mb warming with the onshore flow -- we saw what that did here east of the fall line last March 6th. Granted, it's about a month before that, which *should* help, but I would not be surprised to see the typical scenario for us NE of town (snow-mix-snow). My *hope* is that we here in northern AA County can get 5-6" of front side snow -- and while I will hate the sleet, I can live with it (should expect it really) considering we would have a great shot at another 4-5" along the pivoting deformation zone as the low deepens off the coast. I would gladly take 10" with the thin layer of crust in the middle! That's the way I see it playing out which is why I'd prefer the west/earlier/wetter track....6-8 hours of snow....then mix, then if we are lucky back to a few hours of snow....66% on the front, 33% on the back.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I shouldn't even be posting. I really am not all that excited about winter at this point. If it's going to be cold, I guess it might as well snow. You guys have at it. I'll just read. It's KU season. Cheer up buddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I shouldn't even be posting. I really am not all that excited about winter at this point. If it's going to be cold, I guess it might as well snow. You guys have at it. I'll just read. ok..I guess if you are over winter on 2/10 when you are at the absolute zenith of your snow climo where you live, just go ahead and browse..I'd rather you post... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 this storm is way way different than this one..not remotely similar..that had a low well to our west And I clearly stated that I was not making an analogue, and that I understood it was a different situation and set-up. Yes, the low went to our west, while we had very cold air in place. My point was that storm was a sleetfest with little or no snow in the immediate metro DC area...whereas this upcoming event, even if we get a period of sleet, we should fare much better on the amount of snow we get out of it (given current indications). But I understand what you're saying. I was trying to recall the sensible weather conditions, that was the most recent storm with a high amount of sleet that I can recall offhand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 UKMET RH at 72. Would suggest a good bit more to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 UKMET RH at 72. Would suggest a good bit more to go. WinterWxLuvr deathband. Poor guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Well, even 24+ hours later, what I'm seeing modeled at the surface -- high moving well east of the ME coast, northern stream low approaching the upper Midwest and western GL -- analogs that climatologically speaking we DON'T want to see at the surface...looks quite similar to the Jan 22, 1987 event. I'm not sure the analog aloft fits as well, but overall I think this *could* end up being similar for the DMV, perhaps with a bit more sleet though east of I-95. Obviously when the surface features aren't as "epic" as they were during some of our historical dumps this time of year (Feb 11-12, 1983) -- we need a lot to go right. And we may just have it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 That death band should slide east. Sent from my iPhone why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Jan 87 was in the CIPS analogs yesterday.. know it was discussed here prior too. Not a perfect match but with a transient semi -NAO it might work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Here's another view of the Jan 87 one. This one seems a bit further east with its central axis, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Matt, I can't think of many good analogs here. Jan 87 would be one. Maybe Jan 00. This is not a common miller A. Not at all. It almost makes me expect the unexpected (good or bad). The good pattern analogs for storms have generally been 2/23/86 (back to back 4" storms) and 2/7/79 (6") storm, but the CIPS and other storm specific analogs are going to be better...Jan 87 has some good similarities.....January 2000 is not really great imo....there are probably other non-KU storms that are good analogs, but we tend to analog the storms we know and the big ones...to me this looks more like a 6-10" event for DC metro, with a decent swath of 10-14" in the usual spots....so a nice storm but not really KU.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Jan 87 was in the CIPS analogs yesterday.. know it was discussed here prior too. Not a perfect match but with a transient semi -NAO it might work. Last night's was more bullish than 12z too. Analog list: http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=SE&model=GFS212&fhr=F072&flg= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 next GGEM map 84 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Here's another view of the Jan 87 one. This one seems a bit further east with its central axis, though. the placement of the max swath looks generally right to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 the placement of the max swath looks generally right to me Two things re 1987: 1) On that map, is DC the only thing in the area in the 4-10 inch range or am I just imagining that? 2) Iirc, there were two storms in 1987 within 4 days of each other, and I'm assuming the map is only the first one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Well, even 24+ hours later, what I'm seeing modeled at the surface -- high moving well east of the ME coast, northern stream low approaching the upper Midwest and western GL -- analogs that climatologically speaking we DON'T want to see at the surface...looks quite similar to the Jan 22, 1987 event. I'm not sure the analog aloft fits as well, but overall I think this *could* end up being similar for the DMV, perhaps with a bit more sleet though east of I-95. Obviously when the surface features aren't as "epic" as they were during some of our historical dumps this time of year (Feb 11-12, 1983) -- we need a lot to go right. And we may just have it.. Jan 87 was in the CIPS analogs yesterday.. know it was discussed here prior too. Not a perfect match but with a transient semi -NAO it might work. The reason we did so great with that one was more on a mesoscale level (plus the massive cyclogenesis)....We got whiteout snow and got most of our snow in a 6-8 hr period....so it overwhelmed broader adverse factors I think... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Two things re 1987: 1) On that map, is DC the only thing in the area in the 4-10 inch range or am I just imagining that? 2) Iirc, there were two storms in 1987 within 4 days of each other, and I'm assuming the map is only the first one? 1) it is a mistake...DC proper got 10-14"... 2) Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 GGEM I'm out to 42 with the good maps...with its better resolution this year, I think it is worth considering more...I know the NWS folds it into their guidance and discussions more than they used to it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'll say this much about last night's Euro, and that is it was the coldest run in the last 3 (recall Sunday 0Z was the first run to come in as a change to rain) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 NAM and GFS continue the later and west trend. Good signs all the way around! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The reason we did so great with that one was more on a mesoscale level (plus the massive cyclogenesis)....We got whiteout snow and got most of our snow in a 6-8 hr period....so it overwhelmed broader adverse factors I think... I'm not necessarily on the KU bus but it could be one. There are a lot of fine dates in the CIPS analog. Feb 2010, Feb 1983 etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'm out to 42 with the good maps...with its better resolution this year, I think it is worth considering more...I know the NWS folds it into their guidance and discussions more than they used to it seems. it seems to be a warmer run than last night but probably more qpf with nice u/l low precip also reflected on the 84 hr map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Two things re 1987: 1) On that map, is DC the only thing in the area in the 4-10 inch range or am I just imagining that? 2) Iirc, there were two storms in 1987 within 4 days of each other, and I'm assuming the map is only the first one? Re 2 - yes, but the second was very different - not a coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The 87 storm was roughly a 12 hour event. This one looks quite a bit longer. 87 storm was followed by a pretty good cold shot before the second storm on sun/Mon. This storm will be followed by a decent by trough over the upcoming weekend. Don't know if it means anything, just pointing it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'm not necessarily on the KU bus but it could be one. There are a lot of fine dates in the CIPS analog. Feb 2010, Feb 1983 etc. we did ok in those events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The reason we did so great with that one was more on a mesoscale level (plus the massive cyclogenesis)....We got whiteout snow and got most of our snow in a 6-8 hr period....so it overwhelmed broader adverse factors I think... IIRC we got thundersnow in Jan 87. I remember the forecast being meh leading in but when it got going it was ridiculous. I had a 4wd bronco at the time. It was bumper skiing galore. I drove my mom to work the next morning at the request of my dad. Heh, I would NEVER let my 16-17 year old kids drive my wife around in the snow. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Last night's was more bullish than 12z too. Analog list: http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=SE&model=GFS212&fhr=F072&flg= Every analog is warm or neutral ENSO. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 H66 CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 it seems to be a warmer run than last night but probably more qpf with nice u/l low precip also reflected on the 84 hr map It's got the 6pm start like the Euro which I think overall is better for us even with the western track...-SN is bootleg...I want heavy rates quickly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.