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February 12-13 Storm: Title TBD


stormtracker

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Without insulting the GFS as an overall model, it didnt even really get a clue as to track until 6 hours ago...It has a notorious bias, and it doesnt handle miller A's well (ask any private sector met).....nobody should be paying it too much attention...

 

Agree. Just like seeing the track on the nam/gfs. It's near perfect. If the euro moves a bit east this afternoon it wouldn't surprise me. 

 

 

GFS precip. First blue contour is .5. Increments are .1

 

post-2035-0-86341000-1392048310_thumb.jp

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Without insulting the GFS as an overall model, it didnt even really get a clue as to track until 6 hours ago...It has a notorious bias, and it doesnt handle miller A's well (ask any private sector met).....nobody should be paying it too much attention...

Agreed.

 

The GFS is a good model and doesn't deserve the beating it gets here, but in this instance, it has been pretty below average...of course the storm hasn't happened yet so it could be gearing up for a win...but with other models as wrapped and moisture laden as they are, I would bet the GFS is still playing catch up.

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I would be worried about that ~925 mb warming with the onshore flow -- we saw what that did here east of the fall line last March 6th. Granted, it's about a month before that, which *should* help, but I would not be surprised to see the typical scenario for us NE of town (snow-mix-snow).  My *hope* is that we here in northern AA County can get 5-6" of front side snow -- and while I will hate the sleet, I can live with it (should expect it really) considering we would have a great shot at another 4-5" along the pivoting deformation zone as the low deepens off the coast.  

 

I would gladly take 10" with the thin layer of crust in the middle! :)

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GFS is a scrape.

 

 

 

Normally this winter we'd be happy to be in the dark greens, so I'd happily take it...  If I hadn't seen the Euro & NAM...

OMG.. NAM is basically scraped too although we get big snows in to the cities.. if the Euro does an about face this afternoon and someone is gonna jump off a building.

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The Ukie is an HECS.

One thing I noticed going back to early in the weekend (maybe even on Fri) is that the UK and CMC have been pretty steady as she goes with this system.  Perhaps with the UK more suppressed initially, but the UKMet has been more consistent than the operational ECMWF, that's for sure..

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Just catching up here on all the discussion and quickly viewing the models.  Very interesting trends, and very tricky forecast.  Obviously, potentially high-impact even if we get mix/sleet for some part of this.  Glad to see the GFS trending toward what all the other globals are showing (and the NAM).

 

I'm not stating this as an analogue event in any way, but I wonder if this could be somewhat similar to the VD storm in 2007, with more snow than we got from that one.  As I said, yes, that had a different evolution and all that, and we got pretty much all sleet (where I was at, anyhow).  About 3-4" sleet, in fact, though I know areas north and west got some decent snow as well.  We should see much better snow amounts than in 2007, I'd think, given current indications, even if we get a sleetfest for part of it.

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Agreed.

 

The GFS is a good model and doesn't deserve the beating it gets here, but in this instance, it has been pretty below average...of course the storm hasn't happened yet so it could be gearing up for a win...but with other models as wrapped and moisture laden as they are, I would bet the GFS is still playing catch up.

 

The GFS is a lot better than it used to be.  It's done well this year.. which is why everyone gave it deference early.  But it's been fairly clear since at least late Saturday it was probably unlikely to score a coup here. 

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wrong 2009 storm. the right one is 12/19/09. I sweated and sweated, Matt told me not to worry, and the result was 18".

 

the 3/1/2009 event was the one that missed you all, but the low basically made a right hand turn down in the carolinas and never deepened and there was a huge dome of high pressure to the NW...The band of heavy precip was pretty narrow...I doubt this storm will have a similar cutoff

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One thing I noticed going back to early in the weekend (maybe even on Fri) is that the UK and CMC have been pretty steady as she goes with this system.  Perhaps with the UK more suppressed initially, but the UKMet has been more consistent than the operational ECMWF, that's for sure..

It does not usually do great in the winter but it is sure nice to see it giving us a HECS.

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Just catching up here on all the discussion and quickly viewing the models.  Very interesting trends, and very tricky forecast.  Obviously, potentially high-impact even if we get mix/sleet for some part of this.  Glad to see the GFS trending toward what all the other globals are showing (and the NAM).

 

I'm not stating this as an analogue event in any way, but I wonder if this could be somewhat similar to the VD storm in 2007, with more snow than we got from that one.  As I said, yes, that had a different evolution and all that, and we got pretty much all sleet (where I was at, anyhow).  About 3-4" sleet, in fact, though I know areas north and west got some decent snow as well.  We should see much better snow amounts than in 2007, I'd think, given current indications, even if we get a sleetfest for part of it.

 

this storm is way way different than this one..not remotely similar..that had a low well to our west

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I would be worried about that ~925 mb warming with the onshore flow -- we saw what that did here east of the fall line last March 6th. Granted, it's about a month before that, which *should* help, but I would not be surprised to see the typical scenario for us NE of town (snow-mix-snow).  My *hope* is that we here in northern AA County can get 5-6" of front side snow -- and while I will hate the sleet, I can live with it (should expect it really) considering we would have a great shot at another 4-5" along the pivoting deformation zone as the low deepens off the coast.  

 

I would gladly take 10" with the thin layer of crust in the middle! :)

 

Amen to that.  I think we'd all take that.

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you keep bringing up the anomalous March 9th which was ULL driven and had a bad track for you...this is not a good analog..you will likely get nailed as usual...The GFS has a southeast bias...it is too far east and currently too dry

I shouldn't even be posting.  I really am not all that excited about winter at this point.  If it's going to be cold, I guess it might as well snow.  You guys have at it.  I'll just read.

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