yoda Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=nam&site=kiad Cobb states 11.6" for IAD... 22.4" for DCA... BWI 20.9" However, SR's inflate totals... so take with grain of salt... really heavy grain of salt... SR's wont be higher than 15:1 if even Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Looks like phasing is starting on hr 48 on the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 GFS @ 51 is digging the ns energy further west than same period @ 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Pretty good agreement between the NAM and GFS at 500. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Much better @ h5 @ 63. Digging nice and phasing near perfectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Keep going with the play by play....NCEP is super slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 9-10pm start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 joe bastardi thinks the storm will end up a bit more west like the euro showed last night That guy would make it snow in summer in a thunderstorm if he could... or at least mention it! LOL! I think it will trend back a bit west too, but this could signal that the NAM over corrected last night and is now adjusting to the means of the rest,,, I HOPE it goes west. I seem to remember a history of models over correcting and then finally adjusting back.. you hope this is not the start of a trend south and east! One model is not a trend, but GFS and CMC have had a little more easterly component than the NAM and EURO, until this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Still has a brutal cutoff with the precip shield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 GFS is probably too far east as usual, but a nice track for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Long live the king. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Vort doesn't close and stays positive. Great slp track but heaviest axis east of dc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 What if the new NAM and the GFS are right. Right now? You ok with that? LOL Yes. Because the cutoff will not be that severe out here. And we are colder and get better ratios. We are fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 orientation stays positive to neutral so a nice general storm but nothing special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Long live the king. verbatim, barely all snow for DC (looked at soundings), but likely too far east per its bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Vort doesn't close and stays positive. Great slp track but heaviest axis east of dc. Pretty close to closing off though. Nice run and good to see all of the modeling come together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Quick glance, but GFS looks to be a touch east of 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 surface temps look marginal, but plenty of time left. Decent run, but not the big hit of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 verbatim, barely all snow for DC (looked at soundings), but likely too far east per its bias a little more dynamic storm would bring in more qpf but the upper levels would be cooled some....to a point, of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 verbatim, barely all snow for DC (looked at soundings), but likely too far east per its bias The model spew is closing.. and it's all pretty decent. I'm not too worried about mixing if we get decent snow to go with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yes. Because the cutoff will not be that severe out here. And we are colder and get better ratios. We are fine. March 09. Don't bet on the cutoff not being that sharp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Nice duration in the comma head / deform after the low passes our latitude. Rates seem light. Function of the vort as modeled. Extremely close to huge hit with minor changes @ h5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 verbatim around 0.75" for DC, so wetter than the 6z....and it will be too far east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 5-6" storm for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Quick glance, but GFS looks to be a touch east of 6z. no it is measurably west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Map made by none other than Paul Kocin. Score! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 March 09. Don't bet on the cutoff not being that sharp. you keep bringing up the anomalous March 9th which was ULL driven and had a bad track for you...this is not a good analog..you will likely get nailed as usual...The GFS has a southeast bias...it is too far east and currently too dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Temps in the 900-925mb layer are above freezing for a good chunk of the day on Thursday for most of us. Can't tell yet by how much. Still below freezing below 950mb, so would be pingers mixing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Day 3 WPC maps show 40% chance of 4+ and 10% of 8+ through 12z THUR for DC South Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Pretty close to closing off though. Nice run and good to see all of the modeling come together. yeah it seems to be showing a slightly different interaction with a shortwave rotating around the vortex in central Canada which seems to be suppressing heights over the NE and keeping the wave more progressive -- whereas the Euro takes on a negative tilt much earlier (in contrast to the GFS staying much more progressive) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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