PhineasC Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 There is ALWAYS a heavy band just NW of the supposed cutoff line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Higher res makes it look even nastier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Higher res makes it look even nastier namprecip.JPG i have doubts that the euro will drop me from 2.01 to .54 but if anyone can get screwed from snow its me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 There is ALWAYS a heavy band just NW of the supposed cutoff line. In this case, that will be due to grid scale error or small modeling error in track. What you're thinking of is in the strong frontogen/omega in snow growth zone situations, but models key in on low level dry winning. In reality, the dendrite machine ends up winning. If you are on the right side of the mid level deformation zone, you'll get buried in a Miller A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 the cutoff line is the nastiest I have ever seen. Makes me nervous That map looks awesome, lock it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Higher res makes it look even nastier namprecip.JPG Poor Ji.. When DCA beats him he's going to cry.Fortunately that won't be in this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 i have doubts that the euro will drop me from 2.01 to .54 but if anyone can get screwed from snow its me Remain calm dude...or at least try...it's still a 5-6" snow on this model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Man Richmond gets pummeled on the NAM.. guarantee he is hugging the NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Higher res makes it look even nastier namprecip.JPG yikes -- i think the general takeaway here that we got a great axis of qpf -- how that axis orients itself really relies on some unresolved subtleties in phase timing/tilt timing and orientation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Poor Ji.. When DCA beats him he's going to cry. Fortunately that won't be in this storm. He also cries when dc DOESN'T do well.. It's like my X wife-- she'd be mad if I worked too much, but also mad if we didn't have a lot of $$ to waste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fodie77 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I never allow myself to believe a model that jackpots us, but it's hard not to stare... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Man Richmond gets pummeled on the NAM.. guarantee he is hugging the NAM... Yup... "** ALERT *** ALERT ** HOLY mackel ALERT... from around 6" or 8" of snow that goes over to rain .... to something like 20 inches or more of snow." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 5-6 is completely unacceptable. Sorry lol it will be if the Euro gives you nothing at 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Richmond isn't getting 20 inches from this. The bullseye will move NW and we all know it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 yikes -- i think the general takeaway here that we got a great axis of qpf -- how that axis orients itself really relies on some unresolved subtleties in phase timing/tilt timing and orientation Yea, not to mention the nam appears to be perfectly designed to mess with peoples heads beyond 48 or so. I do like the track but it's foolish to take this run above the euro and ens for now. Euro ens are almost unanimous in 1"+ liquid for all of us. I checked the member output. It's a uniform shellacking for all. P type aside, look at the op and ens members and then add in the relative short lead and it's hard to think it won't mostly verify in some fashion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 5-6 is completely unacceptable. Sorry Ok...you're on your own with this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gordonheimer Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Wow alot of rain here in Norfolk, and Norfolk does not handle large amounts of rain well. Alot of places flood pretty quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 the euro gave richmond 2 inches of snow....all of the sudden, they are going to get 20 inches of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Richmond isn't getting 20 inches from this. The bullseye will move NW and we all know it.Not much better than a RIC bullseye 3 days out.Because I am rooting for those guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 This. I lived in central VA for 10 years, from 2001-11. This is the sort of track we'd see 48-60 hours out. Yet in rare Miller A, amping up coastals, very rarely did we see the max snowfall centered over central/south-central VA...it ends up being farther n-nw or closer to the coast. I cannot think of 12-24" events (are there even any?) where the I95 areas in central VA made out better than areas w-nw-n. I think thermal profiles aloft (uvv's in the dendritic growth zone and thus snowfall rates) have had a lot to do with that. This is accurate. CVA/RIC always get the 48 hour porn, only to watch it move 75-100 miles NW. Just the way it is down here. It's why I moved 20 miles NW of RIC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Correct the nam towardthe euro and you get double digits for everyone in the dc-balt axis. What I'm taking from this is that we are trending toward an all snow event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 FWIW -- 12z RGEM at 48 is 1011 L just SE of New Orleans and 1037 H in S NY/N PA. Decent moisture and QPF already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Correct the nam towardthe euro and you get double digits for everyone in the dc-balt axis. What I'm taking from this is that we are trending toward an all snow event No. There is a high probability of mixing with sleet (at least) for the 95 corridor and points S/E. Maybe that will change, but I wouldn't say there's a trend for it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Richmond isn't getting 20 inches from this. The bullseye will move NW and we all know it. Exactly, I'm more worried about it coming too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 the euro gave richmond 2 inches of snow....all of the sudden, they are going to get 20 inches of snow? Last nights 00Z euro was 6" east end 10" west end........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Move the bullseye over Culpeper. That's my bet. Exactly 75 miles NW of RIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Higher res makes it look even nastier namprecip.JPG Bring it. There's a lot to be said for the humor of it all (if it happens). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 With some very important runs coming over the next couple hours, lets keep it to analysis only. No hunches or complaints or banter. Weeding through that during breaking news is cumbersome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 With some very important runs coming over the next couple hours, lets keep it to analysis only. No hunches or complaints or banter. Weeding through that during breaking news is cumbersome. This is going to be a long week for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I wouldnt take the NAM too seriously...It is outside it useful range and it will jump northwest... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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