Heisy Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 500mb looks very similar to January 26-27 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Now all it has to do is hold steady for the next 72 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 imho, had the NAM come in looking like the Euro, the trend west would not have ended happily for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Even with this track, it gets tenuous for a time. Warm layer is between 950 and 925 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It's the NAM post 48 hours. It's not going to be exactly right...may be totally off. But it is a good track for DC, regardless of what it shows for aerial precip coverage. No point in sweating that on the NAM. Yea, the track, timing, and closing off @ h5 can't be nailed down yet by the best model that hasn't even been invented yet. Verbatim it's a bomb right next to us. Thundersnow for sure if the evolution goes like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 joe bastardi thinks the storm will end up a bit more west like the euro showed last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Even with this track, it gets tenuous for a time. Warm layer is between 950 and 925 mb. USA_PTYPE_sfc_072.gif looks like 750s.850s stay below freezing for the event per this latest run but its the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 just a run of the mill 12-16 inches.... ho hum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 nice sim rad http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_078_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=sim_radar&fhr=078&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=L&scrollx=0&scrolly=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I don't buy that cutoff to the WNW... what would be causing it to be so compressed? That SLP over NE Minn can't be doing that much dmg... The cutoff is there because of the kicker in the midwest. It may be a bit extreme on the NAM, but it is legitimate and it's something that has to be watched. Earthlight mentioned it in the NYC forum The NAM is picking up on the kicker pressing in on the pattern over the Great Lakes and nudging into the Northeast at 72 hours. Mid level winds are pressing on the system and so the area of enhanced lift and dynamics is really pinched on the Northwest side of the precipitation shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Any run that runs too far west is a win. Such a nailbiter but all guidance is looking like a decent snow hit for the cities regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 500mb looks very similar to January 26-27 2011 500 is out of vort 101.. the easy stuff. get that look and you've got high odds of a good storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 joe bastardi thinks the storm will end up a bit more west like the euro showed last night you be sure to hug whoever forecasts you the most snow regardless of how many times you've thrown that forecaster under the bus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 joe bastardi thinks the storm will end up a bit more west like the euro showed last night What if the new NAM and the GFS are right. Right now? You ok with that? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TYFNGUY Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I believe the Nam even gave us a shred of hope in Williamsburg. Not holding on to anything, but a shred is better than nothing, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The cutoff is there because of the kicker in the midwest. It may be a bit extreme on the NAM, but it is legitimate and it's something that has to be watched. Earthlight mentioned it in the NYC forum It's called a deformation zone and they are known for sharp cutoffs in precip in comma heads. Standard stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I get flurries on the 12Z NAM. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 What if the new NAM and the GFS are right. Right now? You ok with that? LOL He is sweating...we all know he is. Nam has his backyard at .52 and DCA at 1.33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 the cutoff line is the nastiest I have ever seen. Makes me nervous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 He is sweating...we all know he is. Nam has his backyard at .52 and DCA at 1.33 LOL and mine at about 0.05 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 you be sure to hug whoever forecasts you the most snow regardless of how many times you've thrown that forecaster under the busGood to see it not go further west last night, the euro. Hoping the night before was the off run there. It probably was at this pt. I dunno how you don't hug the euro envelope at this pt one way or another. But it could certainly show a 12z yday again too.. Tho I wonder if maybe we end up between there and last night. It is still kinda early but another euro or two and it won't be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Im just sticking with the euro till it folds.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Right where we want it. And also the nam still sucks but less than yesterday. This. I lived in central VA for 10 years, from 2001-11. This is the sort of track we'd see 48-60 hours out. Yet in rare Miller A, amping up coastals, very rarely did we see the max snowfall centered over central/south-central VA...it ends up being farther n-nw or closer to the coast. I cannot think of 12-24" events (are there even any?) where the I95 areas in central VA made out better than areas w-nw-n. I think thermal profiles aloft (uvv's in the dendritic growth zone and thus snowfall rates) have had a lot to do with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 March 09. I mentioned it yesterday. It ain't dead yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 the cutoff line is the nastiest I have ever seen. Makes me nervous Nah, in real life it gets tighter. And both you and I have seen sharper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 Now all it has to do is hold steady for the next 72 hours That's a pretty easy thing for models to do. lock it up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Is this the step in the proceedings where the folks N&W of the cities start complaining about getting fringed? Despite the fact that 99 times out of 100, they end up getting the death band? This storm is a classic Miller A and it's always about getting as close to the pump without going above freezing. These storms are not going to follow those rules should a more south and east track win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 we have to assume the NAM is modeling the kicker right....which its probably not at 60-80 hours out #youkeeptellingyourselfthat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Good to see it not go further west last night, the euro. Hoping the night before was the off run there. It probably was at this pt. I dunno how you don't hug the euro envelope at this pt one way or another. But it could certainly show a 12z yday again too.. Tho I wonder if maybe we end up between there and last night. It is still kinda early but another euro or two and it won't be. 40-50 miles makes all the difference with this storm the good thing about the Euro is that it drops so much qpf that taint won't ruin it me, I'll take the NAM and quietly enjoy my 10-12" and the he!! with the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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