Ender Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Isn't there a point where the ensembles become less useful, this close to zero hour? This one starts on wednesday.In terms of deterministic versus ensemble mean for the global models, the deterministic's higher resolution is of increasing importance inside of 120hr and dramatically so inside 96hr. But...There are cases where the global ensembles still play an important role all the way down to 60-72 hours in advance. Particularly during very fast flow regimes, timing of full phasing, etc. My opinion, would love to see verification numbers, is that the meso ensemble mean is more useful in the 30/36hr - 60hr range than the NAM and GFS. Mixed feelings on whether or not to lump the EC in to that last group. The SREF will often have a sort of binomial distribution of solutions, say 40% - 50% with one solution, 30% - 40% tightly clustered around a second solution and 10% - 20% with scattered solutions. I've certainly seen a number of occasions where the primary or secondary solution cluster ends up being "more right" than the EC's verbatim 36hr - 60hr depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Even if it is right just because it caught on first does not mean the GFS is crap. This has been gone over ad nasuem and DTK said that the EURO is the best but the GFS is not trash which i and any other sensible person would agree with. I don't disagree with what DTK said, am just loling at people who are saying the GFS sucks because its showing something completely different. For all we know, the GFS is correct and we get nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 At least the NAM lost its silly solution at 6z. :rain: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 You can defend the gfs but the fact is it showed no QPF in loudoun county for the 00z run while euro shows over 1.5 in liquid. Ignore the fact that the GFS has done well this winter and the Euro that's had to play catch up a few times as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Ignore the fact that the GFS has done well this winter and the Euro that's had to play catch up a few times as well. exactly, humans are pretty terrible at providing an unbiased sample of reality -- we are however very adept at selectively sampling points of a distribution to attempt to explain the perceived outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 PURP. Hoping this doesn't fall prey to the curse of the bulseye/north trend. It probably will lol Well, that's the furthest ampe now-- so, we have wiggle room on the other models. Yeah, I'm talking to you GFS. I'd be more worried about sleet and freezing rain mixing than wide east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Can't believe this is acceptable to people on charge of this stuff that the model is so poor Dude...there've been a number of occasions where the GFS "get's it right" and the Euro stubbornly insists on a solution that ultimately fails. All the way down to the 72 hour timeframe. Especially when dealing with full phasing along the SE to Mid-Atlantic coast and especially so in the spring. Usually the EC will be all on it's lonesome (no NAM support) in those cases, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 At least the NAM lost its silly solution at 6z. :rain: for the Gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The GFS has done well on scenarios unlike this one. It has a history of botching these setups till close range.. Otherwise it's not a bad model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 maybe the euro is wrong? I am just stating a fact. The GFS had literally 0.00 for Leesburg at 00z last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Finally caught up on the overnight info. So what do we need to look for in the models today in order for DCA/BWI to be all snow? 50 mile shove east? Anyone think QPF is not done trending up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Dude...there've been a number of occasions where the GFS "get's it right" and the Euro stubbornly insists on a solution that ultimately fails. All the way down to the 72 hour timeframe. Especially when dealing with full phasing along the SE to Mid-Atlantic coast and especially so in the spring. Usually the EC will be all on it's lonesome (no NAM support) in those cases, though. I get that but it seems like in these "big ticket" events....its always falling short. I am sure it out performs the euro in many areas but when its playoff time...it seems to do a peyton manning:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Srefs look great fwiw. Strong signal for high impact storm popping up. Gfs will catch on eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'm all in for a foot. GFS is losing this one badly to even the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I am just stating a fact. The GFS had literally 0.00 for Leesburg at 00z last night. boo freaking hoo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Not sure if it will portray better for us upstream, but it looks colder at the 850 level in the SE at 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 1. We do not even have verification, so thanks for chiming in already on model performance for a future event. 2. I don't think either of you are experts on data assimilation or numerical weather prediction. 3. The ECMWF is still the best in the world (by quite a bit I might add), but the UKMO/GGEM/GFS are all good models and not *that* far behind. 4. Issues regarding resources at NCEP have been discussed time and time again. Can they do things better? Of course. Is it all trash? Don't be ridiculous. 5. The GFS is being upgraded again this year to include a resolution increase to ~13 km, modified physical parameterizations, increased resolution in the ensemble part of the DA, and use of better resolution (spacial and temporal) SST initialization. /rant Thanks for the updates. I like hearing what's happening w/ these upgrades and changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Not sure if it will portray better for us upstream, but it looks colder at the 850 level in the SE at 33 a little south and east at hr 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Not quite phased yet looks like by hr 45... probably better for us that want more snow than mix... but track should be slightly more E due to that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 fwiw, 6z NAM was 6-8 hours of snow for DC and then sleet and then back.... I think that is a pretty good call with almost any track right now given the thump.....4-6" of snow then probably flip, then back, but how soon depends on track.... I do like that the NAM is picking up on the fact that it will be 31-32 in deform, and not like 34..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Local met is on board with this materializing as modeled. Track is variable of course, but I don't think there should be any worries that this thing is going to fizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Good post. You come to realize quickly around here that model performance is judged by how much snow it show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 A junkie would definitely not be happy with how many lows are on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Local met is on board with this materializing as modeled. Track is variable of course, but I don't think there should be any worries that this thing is going to fizzle. Which met? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Well start time is going to much later... Thurs morning now per the 12z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 I think NAM will be a more favorable (east) track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 At h66, looks like precip starts moving up from the south and 850s are cold. 0 line down near the VA/NC border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 NAM is a nice hit for everyone in DC...impressive storm emerging off Hatteras @ HR 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 12Z NAM looks gorgeous through 72h... east and cold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 NAM actually looks pretty good with slp at 72....unless it moves like straight north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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