needbiggerboat Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 What's with V-day and sleetfests around here? Clearly this has more snow potential. But sleet could be a big factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I hope ji doesn't read Enders post lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Bob, what are your thoughts right now on GFS v. Euro solutions? Pretty big spread.Until the gfs stops bouncing you have to heavily weight the euro and its ensembles. They have been a rock for what seems like forever. Big and rapidly deepening coastals will always have a mind of their own during the process so going verbatim on any solution isnt the way to go. I think we should rely on past history for sensible outcomes. Snow - mix - snow. Gfs isn't as amped and strong as the euro so it's east. If the gfs keeps coming in stronger then the track will come closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Until the gfs stops bouncing you have to heavily weight the euro and it's ensembles. They have been a rock for what seems like forever. Big and rapidly deepening coastals will always have a mind of their own during the process so going verbatim on any solution isnt the way to go. I think we should rely on past history for sensible outcomes. Snow - mix - snow. Gfs isn't as amped and strong as the euro so it's east. If the gfs keeps coming in stronger then the track will come closer. Isn't there a point where the ensembles become less useful, this close to zero hour? This one starts on wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Isn't there a point where the ensembles become less useful, this close to zero hour? This one starts on wednesday. Euro ensembles run at a higher resolution and the important part of the track was 84 hours on the 0z run. 12z will still be useful but then ops are prob the only thing to worry about from tonight on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 06z NAM Cobb: .588 all snow for Westminster 06z - 18z ... Id assume there would be a little more after hr84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Were not completely out of the sleet woods either. Last nights NAM had some mixing out this way. But it was the NAM at the end of its range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 This is mostly just weenie banter so you are forewarned, but I like where we're at. If the EURO is a tiny bit too amped and the GFS is a little bit too flat and we get a blend of the two the needle will be threaded and we'll get a major snowstorm. If the EURO is right we still get a good front-end thump and some mixing and maybe even some backend. If the GFS is right we get a moderate snowstorm with no mixing. Pretty great spot to be in overall.I think you'd end up with a blend of the grid-point NAM and the spectral GFS. Probably heavily weighted towards the NAM. A more practical blend would probably be the ultra high resolution (spectral) ECMWF and the NAM. I'm assuming that's what we'd see if we could see the .5° ECE blend. At least that's where my money is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I hope ji doesn't read Enders post lol neither he nor Ender have to worry accuwx has the skewts up the entire column and it's all snow at IAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
budice2002 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 What time of day Wednesday does the Euro show the storm coming in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 What time of day Wednesday does the Euro show the storm coming in? For DC EURO has the snow starting around 00z Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 neither he nor Ender have to worry accuwx has the skewts up the entire column and it's all snow at IAD Is it close above 850? I can't imagine it not being borderline given the track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I think you'd end up with a blend of the grid-point NAM and the spectral GFS. Probably heavily weighted towards the NAM. A more practical blend would probably be the ultra high resolution (spectral) ECMWF and the NAM. I'm assuming that's what we'd see if we could see the .5° ECE blend. At least that's where my money is... I need this translated into weenie language that I can understand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Dear God, I love waking up and seeing 10+ pages added overnight to a storm thread. The 0Z Euro would be a dream out here. All the hand-wringing of the "big weekend storm" turned unicorn is long gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelScott Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 06z NAM is epic for my area. If I could draw it out, that's how it would look. That closed ULL causes some havic with another 3-5 on the backside. That 2 inch area is right near ROA to LYH to DAN. Epic. PURP. Hoping this doesn't fall prey to the curse of the bulseye/north trend. It probably will lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Were not completely out of the sleet woods either. Last nights NAM had some mixing out this way. But it was the NAM at the end of its range. LOL, we ain't out of the dry woods yet either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Can't believe this is acceptable to people on charge of this stuff that the model is so poor Yeah I mean it is a frustrating model, but we all pretty much know it has a southeast bias in situations like this one so, it was bound to cave eventually. 1. We do not even have verification, so thanks for chiming in already on model performance for a future event. 2. I don't think either of you are experts on data assimilation or numerical weather prediction. 3. The ECMWF is still the best in the world (by quite a bit I might add), but the UKMO/GGEM/GFS are all good models and not *that* far behind. 4. Issues regarding resources at NCEP have been discussed time and time again. Can they do things better? Of course. Is it all trash? Don't be ridiculous. 5. The GFS is being upgraded again this year to include a resolution increase to ~13 km, modified physical parameterizations, increased resolution in the ensemble part of the DA, and use of better resolution (spacial and temporal) SST initialization. /rant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 7pm Wed start is about as good as it gets. No sun angle to worry about to get our base down. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Another big jump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Best they have looked so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 1. We do not even have verification, so thanks for chiming in already on model performance for a future event. 2. I don't think either of you are experts on data assimilation or numerical weather prediction. 3. The ECMWF is still the best in the world (by quite a bit I might add), but the UKMO/GGEM/GFS are all good models and not *that* far behind. 4. Issues regarding resources at NCEP have been discussed time and time again. Can they do things better? Of course. Is it all trash? Don't be ridiculous. 5. The GFS is being upgraded again this year to include a resolution increase to ~13 km, modified physical parameterizations, increased resolution in the ensemble part of the DA, and use of better resolution (spacial and temporal) SST initialization. /rant Good post. You come to realize quickly around here that model performance is judged by how much snow it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 You can defend the gfs but the fact is it showed no QPF in loudoun county for the 00z run while euro shows over 1.5 in liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Is it close above 850? I can't imagine it not being borderline given the track nope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 You can defend the gfs but the fact is it showed no QPF in loudoun county for the 00z run while euro shows over 1.5 in liquid. maybe the euro is wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 1. We do not even have verification, so thanks for chiming in already on model performance for a future event. 2. I don't think either of you are experts on data assimilation or numerical weather prediction. 3. The ECMWF is still the best in the world (by quite a bit I might add), but the UKMO/GGEM/GFS are all good models and not *that* far behind. 4. Issues regarding resources at NCEP have been discussed time and time again. Can they do things better? Of course. Is it all trash? Don't be ridiculous. 5. The GFS is being upgraded again this year to include a resolution increase to ~13 km, modified physical parameterizations, increased resolution in the ensemble part of the DA, and use of better resolution (spacial and temporal) SST initialization. /rant Thanks DTK, i cannot believe you think Ji is not an expert on data assimilation. His weather page has more fans than NOAA . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Since I saw a few pages back some argument over 06z NAM and mixing: Its mostly snow for DCA... soundings would indicate by 75 and 78 S and E of DCA will mix with PL... 81 and 84 look good enough for mainly snow And 84+ would def have more snow with the ULL coming in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 1. We do not even have verification, so thanks for chiming in already on model performance for a future event. 2. I don't think either of you are experts on data assimilation or numerical weather prediction. 3. The ECMWF is still the best in the world (by quite a bit I might add), but the UKMO/GGEM/GFS are all good models and not *that* far behind. 4. Issues regarding resources at NCEP have been discussed time and time again. Can they do things better? Of course. Is it all trash? Don't be ridiculous. 5. The GFS is being upgraded again this year to include a resolution increase to ~13 km, modified physical parameterizations, increased resolution in the ensemble part of the DA, and use of better resolution (spacial and temporal) SST initialization. /rant #5 is interesting. Thanks for the info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 In the BWI/DCA area, every mile west means more if you want to stay frozen aloft than every mile north in fact, going north doesn't really help much at all in the Baltimore area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 maybe the euro is wrong? Even if it is right just because it caught on first does not mean the GFS is crap. This has been gone over ad nasuem and DTK said that the EURO is the best but the GFS is not trash which i and any other sensible person would agree with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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