ravensrule Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 HPC discussion: POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE REACHING THE SRN PLAINS TUE NIGHTAND THE AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST WED NIGHTLIKELY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE GULF AND EAST COASTS~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~PREFERENCE: 12Z ECMWF / 00Z CMC BLENDCONFIDENCE: AVERAGETHE 00Z NAM IS MORE AMPLIFIED EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH A SHORTWAVEENTERING BRITISH COLUMBIA LATER TODAY...WHICH MAY CARRY OVERDOWNSTREAM INTO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH BY THUMORNING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COMPARED TO THE REMAINING AVAILABLEGUIDANCE. THE 00Z NAM/ECMWF END UP ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THEENSEMBLE LOW PLOTS...LIKELY TOO FAR INLAND WITH THEIR SURFACELOWS. THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET/CMC HAVE ALL ADJUSTED A BIT WEST WITHTHE SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY...AND EVENTUALLYOVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.THE 00Z GFS UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS DISPLACED A BIT TOO FAR EAST ANDIS A BIT LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST THANDESIRED...BUT IT IS BETTER THAN THE 12Z/09 RUN. THE 00ZECMWF/UKMET/CMC CAN NOT BE IGNORED WITH THEIR WESTWARD TREND FORTHE 00Z CYCLE GIVEN THEY LOOK FINE WITH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVEPROGRESSION...BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT DISTRIBUTION OF ENSEMBLE LOWPLOTS...THE PREFERENCE IS TO BE A BIT FARTHER OFFSHORE THAN THE00Z ECMWF/UKMET. THE ECMWF MADE A WESTWARD SHIFT WITH THE 00Z/09CYCLE AS WELL..AND COULD JUST BE FLIP FLOPPING. PREFER TO STAYSTEADY WITH THE 12Z ECMWF AND NEW 00Z CMC GIVEN THEIR CLOSERAGREEMENT IN POSITION/STRENGTH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 good writeup from DT on how the 0z Euro track is not a great one for I-95.... https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk/posts/645638985483363 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 seasonal snow potential in the mountains and in N MD is clear off the charts my prediction of 60 inches for the season in Sparky's backyard might bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 3z SREF mean is like 0.30" for DC through 87 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 0z Euro Ens mean Tracks east of the OP, but not by as much as you might think...and isn't any colder really...I'd guess around 1.25" for DC metro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 0z Euro Ens mean Tracks east of the OP, but not by as much as you might think...and isn't any colder really...I'd guess around 1.25" for DC metro... With the Euro tending to "wind things up" a little at this range, seeing the Ens east of the op is no surprise. Still ample time for wiggle room over the next 48-72 hours. Hopefully, things wiggle just a little more east. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 06z NAM is epic for my area. If I could draw it out, that's how it would look. That closed ULL causes some havic with another 3-5 on the backside. That 2 inch area is right near ROA to LYH to DAN. Epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
odwalla Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 06z NAM is 12-16" for DC metro. Impressive, and all snow. The scope of this does not warrant a 'HECS' label on an individual city basis outside of the SE, but its overall impact is going to be incredibly significant, and the media is probably going into crazy hype mode starting today. The storm seems like it could rival '93 for widespread totals of 12"+, spanning from Georgia up into New England, and we have not seen an event like this in quite some time; I don't know what the closest comparison would be. Travel impacts across the globe are going to be severe as the entire East Coast shuts down. And I have a ticket on Amtrak from NYC to DC set to leave at Penn Station 11AM on Thursday... Also great to see DT gearing up viral content by posting a EURO map via WXB*** highlighting 20"+ totals across much of the Mid Atlantic. Bottom feeders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 06z NAM is 12-16" for DC metro. Impressive, and all snow. The scope of this does not warrant a 'HECS' label on an individual city basis outside of the SE, but its overall impact is going to be incredibly significant, and the media is probably going into crazy hype mode starting today. The storm seems like it could rival '93 for widespread totals of 12"+, spanning from Georgia up into New England, and we have not seen an event like this in quite some time; I don't know what the closest comparison would be. Travel impacts across the globe are going to be severe as the entire East Coast shuts down. And I have a ticket on Amtrak from NYC to DC set to leave at Penn Station 11AM on Thursday... Also great to see DT gearing up viral content by posting a EURO map via WXB*** highlighting 20"+ totals across much of the Mid Atlantic. Bottom feeders. I dont see how theres no mixing on the 6z NAM...Obv not a bad run but the 850 0c line is very close to DC, I would think theres at least sleet in there somewhere... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
odwalla Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I dont see how theres no mixing on the 6z NAM...Obv not a bad run but the 850 0c line is very close to DC, I would think theres at least sleet in there somewhere... Post a skew-t or don't make baseless assertions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Post a skew-t or don't make baseless assertions. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ETANE9_6z/etaloop.html Dude, you have been on this forum for 2 months...Relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Just amazing what the models are printing out for the east coast region. Not sure what to think According to the above loop sequence, we are snow then we mix for about 3 hours then right back to snow for another few hours West of that, communities are going to be obliterated by snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
odwalla Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ETANE9_6z/etaloop.html Dude, you have been on this forum for 2 months...Relax. i have been on the forums for a decade. that is not a skew-t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lester Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I dont see how theres no mixing on the 6z NAM...Obv not a bad run but the 850 0c line is very close to DC, I would think theres at least sleet in there somewhere... There is mixiness for DC-BWI eastward before we change back to snow according to WxBell, otherwise, a pretty good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 There is mixiness for DC-BWI eastward before we change back to snow according to WxBell, otherwise, a pretty good run. Either way, with that track verbatim there has to be some mixing for the cities regardless of what the model prints out..and thats OK..the best storms sometimes have a period of mixing. As it has been said before, you have to flirt with the mixing line to score big in east coast big snows usually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 As someone noted before, most big storms mix or change to sleet at some point in DC/Baltimore. PD11 changed to sleet for about 8 hours, likely denying Baltimore from 30 inch mark. Feb 10 2010 was all sleet overnight in DC before the morning blizzard started. Though some will disagree, to this day I swear Northwest DC even saw 2 hours of snow/rain mix from 8 to 10 pm on the night of Feb 5 2010, denying DC and/or DCA of at least 4 inches of snow. Only major storm in past decade without mixing dangers was Dec 19 2009 and if you go back farther the surprise January storm in 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 Dual low finally gone on the GFS. Ironically,all of us were cursing the GFS...it's probably the track we want. EDIT: It's actually the perfect track and compromise. We give up some qpf, but it's colder. I'd take it. Too bad it's likely still correcting west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yep. GFS finally caving completely..Lets just hope the EURO doesnt continue to nudge west..but 6z GFS is a beauty for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yep. GFS finally caving completely..Lets just hope the EURO doesnt continue to nudge west..but 6z GFS is a beauty for now Can't believe this is acceptable to people on charge of this stuff that the model is so poor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Positive changes on the GFS. Nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Can't believe this is acceptable to people on charge of this stuff that the model is so poor Yeah I mean it is a frustrating model, but we all pretty much know it has a southeast bias in situations like this one so, it was bound to cave eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yeah I mean it is a frustrating model, but we all pretty much know it has a southeast bias in situations like this one so, it was bound to cave eventually. this is twice in two weeks that the GFS has shown a solution, 2 days before the event, that the other models have shown way before. Its rather comical that the model is this way lorn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 You guys r sitting pretty down there. We just need this system to NOT do anything crazy or unexpected now and we can all be in on the fun. Little shifts good....big shifts bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 You guys r sitting pretty down there. We just need this system to NOT do anything crazy or unexpected now and we can all be in on the fun. Little shifts good....big shifts bad. I hope we can keep counting on you to tell us we are ok. I need tha blanket of comfort as the track is still undetermined. West shifts can still happen and need to be considered. Looks like others have already stated mix issues for DC east and we know that happens with amped coastals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I hope we can keep counting on you to tell us we are ok. I need tha blanket of comfort as the track is still undetermined. West shifts can still happen and need to be considered. Looks like others have already stated mix issues for DC east and we know that happens with amped coastals track is becoming clear obx to the bm. It will fluctuate from run to run but you guys make out just fine.i hope this makes you feel warm and fuzzy :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I hope we can keep counting on you to tell us we are ok. I need tha blanket of comfort as the track is still undetermined. West shifts can still happen and need to be considered. Looks like others have already stated mix issues for DC east and we know that happens with amped coastals Theres pretty high probability of receiving accumlating snow out of this...ultimate question is does it ever track far enough west to change to sleet or even rain...Id probably make a bet already now that DC reports sleet at least for 1 hr obs but like I said, most great storms will do that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The "Dont Break my Heart" storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Theres pretty high probability of receiving accumlating snow out of this...ultimate question is does it ever track far enough west to change to sleet or even rain...Id probably make a bet already now that DC reports sleet at least for 1 hr obs but like I said, most great storms will do that It looks like to me that the Low gets its act together early enough to get flow from northeast to southwest for a considerable amount of time over our area.. with the antecedent air mass being decent, I think we trap enough cold air in for solid thump in the beginning. The is not a transfer type deal.. we have a amped up short wave in Georgia with a strong trough developing behind it... the dynamics for flow will be favorable at the beginning and on the tail end.. so we really only have to worry about mixing in the middle... I like upper level low rotating through on the back end... I can remember plenty of storms where we made our Money on the upper air stuff at the tail end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Winter storm warnings for Georgia and Mississippi... thats hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'm more interested in the Sunday event. That has some potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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