yoda Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 850mb 0 line stays just east of DC whole time, but certain mixing for everyone east of IAD....JYO - MRB if all snow would be 16-20" probably....but not sure where mix line is....also surface looks warm on Thursday but that is probably a bit goofy Do I see that the 00z EURO has more QPF than the 00z NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 MichaelScott, on 10 Feb 2014 - 01:19 AM, said:Leave it to the guy from ROA to cut ROA-LYH off the map We get about 12".. LYH is close to mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I know, how about you? I swear i will be at the beach openly weeping if this happens. Won't you be away as well?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 um, that's pretty perfect its too far west for us....we mix significantly with that track and maybe change over....we want a track 50 mi east of there.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Holy smokes. 24" showing up in MD. Add another 3-6" to that frame I just posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelScott Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 We get about 12".. LYH is close to mixing. We always are! I'll be happy to see 3", let alone 12". Haven't had more than an inch on the ground so far this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Surface is unusually warm post 84 hours. It won't be hard to accumulate at 34 with +sn and 6+ on the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 its too far west for us....we mix significantly with that track and maybe change over....we want a track 50 mi east of there.... I'm fine with it for now. An error or noise for 50 miles either way is doable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I swear i will be at the beach openly weeping if this happens. Won't you be away as well?. no, I have court Wed morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Do I see that the 00z EURO has more QPF than the 00z NAM? It has more QPF than any run of any model has had for this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Jersey north mixes except well inland. 96hrs closed H5 over Philly!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 no, I have court Wed morning Lucky bastid, i thought you had a flight from BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'm fine with it for now. An error or noise for 50 miles either way is doable. not really..even with that track I think we go to sleet after 3-5"...and then maybe back to snow later...which is fine....but sharp gradient.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 How does it look for Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I know the High is retreating, but there's still a lot of cold air around and it's bombing so I'll take my chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 not really..even with that track I think we go to sleet after 3-5"...and then maybe back to snow later...which is fine....but sharp gradient.... sure it is. a 50 mile shift east is attainable. I'm fine with the track, especially considering the ensembles have been consistently east of the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 How does it look for Sunday? You are worse than a junkie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 MichaelScott, on 10 Feb 2014 - 01:23 AM, said:MichaelScott, on 10 Feb 2014 - 01:23 AM, said:We always are! I'll be happy to see 3", let alone 12". Haven't had more than an inch on the ground so far this season. 12.5" for ROA. 11.5" for LYH. No complaints there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Looking at the 6hr high res panels, 50 miles makes a huge difference. Hr 90-96 is .6 -.8 about 50 miles West and north of dc and .3 city proper. Wow. Deform is nasty wherever it sets up if it sets up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Saw the mos on accuweather. A bit too close for comfort. I'll sacrifice a bit of QPF for safer track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 my maps are showing a very narrow band of 2"+ for IAD-JYO....maybe 2.03" or something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 So DT may well bust.....low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 How 'bout a snow map for se pa....since I'm up. Please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Dc - bwi 1.7 - 1.8 Iad 2.2 Fdk county 2.4 Northern carrol bullseye 2.5+ Me 1.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It's a blizzard/hecs. The MOS is unreal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 BWI THU 00Z 13-FEB -2.7 -6.7 1026 79 98 0.01 555 535 THU 06Z 13-FEB -1.7 -1.0 1016 94 99 0.36 553 540 THU 12Z 13-FEB 0.6 -0.5 1005 93 99 0.71 550 545 THU 18Z 13-FEB 0.8 -1.5 995 92 67 0.40 538 542 I'm sure there's a warm layer aloft during the peak, but that's some crazy qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Dc - bwi 1.7 - 1.8 Iad 2.2 Fdk county 2.4 Northern carrol bullseye 2.5+ Me 1.9 Sparky will need to trade his broom for a front loader, poor guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Saw the mos on accuweather. A bit too close for comfort. I'll sacrifice a bit of QPF for safer track a number of people have been ignoring the fact that a high QPF track is a sleet maker for a lot of us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 BWI THU 00Z 13-FEB -2.7 -6.7 1026 79 98 0.01 555 535 THU 06Z 13-FEB -1.7 -1.0 1016 94 99 0.36 553 540 THU 12Z 13-FEB 0.6 -0.5 1005 93 99 0.71 550 545 THU 18Z 13-FEB 0.8 -1.5 995 92 67 0.40 538 542 I'm sure there's a warm layer aloft during the peak, but that's some crazy qpf my God, there's more after that! FRI 00Z 14-FEB 1.2 -4.8 996 88 94 0.36 533 536 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Stunning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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