jums300 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 here was modeled snow from back in December for 12/9 you got 2" out of it in reality Got 8" in Reisterstown, but there was the cut off zone was sharp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 00z GGEM at 84 big hit... SLP is not as ridiculous as 12z run was... 1000 mb east of ACY by 100 miles http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/133_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 00z GGEM at 84 big hit... SLP is not as ridiculous as 12z run was... 1000 mb east of ACY by 100 miles That does not sound impressive. 1000 is weak especially up at acy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 That does not sound impressive. 1000 is weak especially up at acy look at the map, and there's more after that Mr. Whinner! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Went from 964 to 1000 in one run lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 That does not sound impressive. 1000 is weak especially up at acy There is like no pleasing you is there? GGEM looks like it is all snow for us through 84... waiting on 96 to see if we get anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Here is UKIE at 96 (sorry its sideways... so tilt your head) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 There is like no pleasing you is there? GGEM looks like it is all snow for us through 84... waiting on 96 to see if we get anymore we should per 700mb RH with the u/l Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Went from 964 to 1000 in one run lol? Who cares, you probably get more snow this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 That does not sound impressive. 1000 is weak especially up at acy I need to know where your bar is set. I'm 6+ for a big win and totally happy with 4. I can also deal with 2-3 and a pile of sleet and some ice. Anything less can suck it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Im at 19.5 for the season so bar is at 5.5" to get to 25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I need to know where your bar is set. I'm 6+ for a big win and totally happy with 4. I can also deal with 2-3 and a pile of sleet and some ice. Anything less can suck it His bar is always above 1' he has to compensate for other things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It almost seems like the euro grabbed this storm and didn't let go 3 weeks ago. It's been super steady and I refused to believe it was even possible when it first picked it up. Ensemble members and mean improved from 0z to 12z today. To me, that was an important clue. The op close track isn't fun to look at but unfortunately it can easily happen. I agree with the gfs breathing room being a net+ but it still makes me mad to look at. Lol I'll check the members in an hour. I'm willing to bet there will some more members joining the party. 18z only had 3 or so good looks overall. Euro and GFS are pretty similar at 500 around 84 (per 0z runs). I think as is you're right the GFS would probably be at least a little wetter.. which we could see with the 12z CIPS analogs bullseying the 95 corridor despite the sfc looking meh. With the strong vort diving through the upper midwest it's hard to get super worried about the inland track v the ots track.. I actually think both are about equally likely at this point, which is probably also not a bad place to be unless it ends up either/or. I do think that the NAM being stronger/ closing off a 500 low with an early neg tilt trough is still unlikely given where the globals are at current. GFS NAM 12z EUro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 we should per 700mb RH with the u/l Yup... probably another 5-10mm 15mm bullseye down by RIC on the 96 map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 That does not sound impressive. 1000 is weak especially up at acy smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/134_100.gif 96 hr GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Went from 964 to 1000 in one run lol? The likelihood of 964 low was like 0.00001% and you know it. Are you using reverse psychology tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I am going to guess ~20mm on the 00z GGEM... prob all snow UKIE we won't know cause 72 hrs is the last QPF map... but it looks really nice for a snowstorm for us IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Went from 964 to 1000 in one run lol? Blizzard of 1993 redux cancel. Who'd have thunk a historic low pressure wouldn't happen in this scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I need to know where your bar is set. I'm 6+ for a big win and totally happy with 4. I can also deal with 2-3 and a pile of sleet and some ice. Anything less can suck it I didnt wait 4 years for a Miller A to get 4 inches. Its 8-12 for me. Ill take 6 minimum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yup... probably another 5-10mm 15mm bullseye down by RIC on the 96 map ULL that should pass through. Something we'll up nowcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/134_100.gif 96 hr GEM is this like the Jan 2011 event where the low was past up but we scored most of our snow form the ULL that trailed the surface low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I actually think it would be funny if the GFS is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Nice comparison Ian. I'm on my phone so it too cumbersome to do 3 panel comps. It's hard not to like the upper level look. Now I want to root for a big hit from the 850 and have h5 close off and glide by to finish the job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 GFS gives me MORE SNOW next weekend(.22) than midweek(0.0) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 GFS gives me MORE SNOW next weekend(.22) than midweek(0.0) Next weekend is in play for sure and if we fail wed-thur then it might be our last chance till march or Dec 5th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Next weekend is in play for sure and if we fail wed-thur then it might be our last chance till march or Dec 5thLet's hope so. We could use some torch or even semi torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 look at the map, and there's more after that Mr. Whinner! Next time leave out the H. Are you sure you didn't mean to say Mr. Winner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 is this like the Jan 2011 event where the low was past up but we scored most of our snow form the ULL that trailed the surface low? the 84 hr black and white map is low resolution, but we're in the 10mm-25mm area...there's a big difference between being on the high end or low end of that range so we'll have to wait for the color maps which have better resolution I would expect at least .8" qpf off the GEM, and that may be low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Recap so far tonight: 00z NAM: major hit (all frozen, SN/IP/FRZ RN) 00z GFS: blows crap 00z UKIE: most likely a major hit (all SN?) 00z GGEM: major hit (all SN) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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