Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I think the GFS could be right....it is hard to snow in DC.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I feel much better with the GFS looking like it does than if it looked like the euro or might be looking at nam victory laps. I don't think you were totally kidding with the convective feedback post. With the evolution at h5 and 850/slp track I'm pretty confident that the precip shield would verify much further nw. Hp is retreating and we don't have suppressive confluence stacked up above us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k94 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 One would think this 500 depiction would be good for us, no? Funny you mentioned that, i was just looking at the H5's wondering, wow, what a great hit! Then, precip maps happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I think the GFS could be right....it is hard to snow in DC.... You also think the NAM could be right, all rain in DC with 0 QPF is tough too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Ukie Day 3 slp http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ukmet≤=sfc&va=slp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 In all fairness .75 would probably be at least 8 inches. Thats a pretty big storm. No doubt. I'd take it in a heart beat. That being said, when people use "crushed" on here, they're not talking about 6-8 inch snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 In all fairness .75 would probably be at least 8 inches. Thats a pretty big storm. Certainly...we'd all be pleased with that. Shooting for 12.7" though. That's a top-10 storm, which hasn't happened since 1983 (the 96 total was botched). I'm pleased with the current spread. I'll always take SE of us over bullseye. CMC is the ideal solution for central VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I don't think you we're totally kidding with the convective feedback post. With the evolution at h5 and 850/slp track I'm pretty confident that the precip shield would verify much further nw. Hp is retreating and we don't have suppressive confluence stacked up above us. I'm not entirely.. the low is closer than last run. We should get more precip. The sfc hasn't been matching its mid levels either.. tho the vort is a bit south of perfect still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Day 3 Ukie 700mb RH map....I'd say it's gunna be a hit! http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ukmet≤=700&va=rhum&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest 850 RH http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ukmet≤=850&va=rhum&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest 850 temps http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ukmet≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Had gfs been a hit... I would of gone to bed. Now Have to stay for euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Let's see if the Channel 4 lady has figured things out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Funny you mentioned that, i was just looking at the H5's wondering, wow, what a great hit! Then, precip maps happened. Yeah, I like seeing what Ian/Bob have to say about the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'm not entirely.. the low is closer than last run. We should get more precip. The sfc hasn't been matching its mid levels either.. tho the vort is a bit south of perfect still.Yes, vort isnt perfect on the run but I would still expect .25+ in our area. I expected a more consolidated low as well. Gfs is kinda stuck on the dual low to start and then a big bag of wtf as it pulls together. I'm not upset with the run. 1" of qpf with an inch of snow followed by 33 and rain would have made me much angrier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Ukie looks huge maybe Yoda can get us the day 4 maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Ukie qpf ending 72 hours http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ukmet≤=sfc&va=prec&in=.1&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yes, vort isnt perfect on the run but I would still expect .25+ in our area. I expected a more consolidated low as well. Gfs is kinda stuck on the dual low to start and then a big bag of wtf as it pulls together. I'm not upset with the run. 1" of qpf with an inch of snow followed by 33 and rain would have made me much angrier I'm upset. I like modeled snow. I don't even get a modeled flurrie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelScott Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 No doubt. I'd take it in a heart beat. That being said, when people use "crushed" on here, they're not talking about 6-8 inch snows. The funny thing is that the GFS actually has RIC in the .25-.5 stripe. I don't think anyone really got crushed on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Had gfs been a hit... I would of gone to bed. Now Have to stay for euro That was not gonna happen. And it is not the solution either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Ukie looks huge maybe Yoda can get us the day 4 maps Going to have to wait a while for meteocentre to come out with it... prob not for another 45 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Let's see if the Channel 4 lady has figured things out. Answer: nope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 UKIE is an Outerbanks to BM track per NYC forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'm upset. I like modeled snow. I don't even get a modeled flurrie here was modeled snow from back in December for 12/9 you got 2" out of it in reality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yes, vort isnt perfect on the run but I would still expect .25+ in our area. I expected a more consolidated low as well. Gfs is kinda stuck on the dual low to start and then a big bag of wtf as it pulls together. I'm not upset with the run. 1" of qpf with an inch of snow followed by 33 and rain would have made me much angrier Given last night's Euro run looked pretty crappy for me and east I'll take breathing room. Euro/GFS blend gives me snow which is good enough for now. GFS still kinda lonely with the weakest/flattest solution. It could happen.. but I wouldn't bet on it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 here was modeled snow from back in December for 12/9 you got 2" out of it in reality lol that actually verified in Parkton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 lol that actually verified in Parkton it painted such a large area, it was bound to get some places right by pure luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 it painted such a large area, it was bound to get some places right by pure luck It was Dec 8th and i got 5.3" from it so it was not terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 00z GGEM at 72 has 1009 L FL/GA (central part) border... QPF approaching DCA... 1033 H just off eastern tip of ME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Given last night's Euro run looked pretty crappy for me and east I'll take breathing room. Euro/GFS blend gives me snow which is good enough for now. GFS still kinda lonely with the weakest/flattest solution. It could happen.. but I wouldn't bet on it right now. It almost seems like the euro grabbed this storm and didn't let go 3 weeks ago. It's been super steady and I refused to believe it was even possible when it first picked it up. Ensemble members and mean improved from 0z to 12z today. To me, that was an important clue. The op close track isn't fun to look at but unfortunately it can easily happen. I agree with the gfs breathing room being a net+ but it still makes me mad to look at. Lol I'll check the members in an hour. I'm willing to bet there will some more members joining the party. 18z only had 3 or so good looks overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 00z GGEM at 84 big hit... SLP is not as ridiculous as 12z run was... 1000 mb east of ACY by 100 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 00z GGEM at 72 has 1009 L FL/GA (central part) border... QPF approaching DCA... 1033 H just off eastern tip of ME sounds like the monster the Ukie showed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.