yoda Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Is it a surprise to anyone that the nam is super amped outside of 48 hours? It could be right as matt was saying but not because the nam is showing it at 60+ hours Mixing is almost inevitable for 95 corridor unless the stars align. I personally think this is a good run. Gfs should start showing some sort of consolidated coastal soon. Most likely in an hour. Def agree with this post... all i took from this run is that that 2m temps were below freezing and all precip is frozen... 850s can be worked out later and as we all know and others have said... it mixes in the the big ones around DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I suspect it may be too amped, but verbatim the NAM is massive hit along the Blue Ridge/interior MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The cutoff is hilarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Is it a surprise to anyone that the nam is super amped outside of 48 hours? It could be right as matt was saying but not because the nam is showing it at 60+ hours Mixing is almost inevitable for 95 corridor unless the stars align. I personally think this is a good run. Gfs should start showing some sort of consolidated coastal soon. Most likely in an hour. Mr. Chill why is the GFS so awful with east coast lows during the winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 As Mitch said earlier, if the H5 depiction shown at 84 hrs is taken verbatim, there would definitely be an enhancement of precip back into the region in the form of snow. The NAM as a whole should be taken with a grain a salt past 48 hours, but it is very interesting to see how the model evolved the storm. One of the main players that was sparingly mentioned was the GL low that was affecting the earlier models runs. With the low center in the GL region on earlier caused a serious cut back on precip around the I-81 corridor and focused on a main area of precip east of I81 to the coast. The 0z NAM has significantly backed off of the low center in the lakes, which allows for a greater expansion of precip to the west and now everyone gets involved. I'm actually stunned by the solution tonight. Would be a major storm for everyone on here, except maybe the immediate coast of MD, but that region is always prone to changeover. I wouldn't be too concerned with the 850mb temps at this range, but it would be good to at least take note for areas prone to precipitation issues (sorry DC). I still think with the depiction at H5 this storm has more room to bomb out faster than what was shown on the NAM. Plenty of runs to go. A lot of patience will be tested up and down the coast from run to run, but it looks like we have a possibly epic storm on our hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Mr. Chill why is the GFS so awful with east coast lows during the winter? No idea. It's good with northern stream vorts in fast flow. Better than the euro imo. It struggles with miller A's and b's. We haven't had a coastal in so long I can't remember specific biases in a setup like this. Wes and Matt would know much more than me with your question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Mr. Chill why is the GFS so awful with east coast lows during the winter? It wasn't made for that purpose really. It's a short term model that excels in convective forecasting. People just like the higher resolution IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 NAM is a complete bomb. Definitely mixing issues but we'd go from snow to sleet back to snow probably. Hour 81 has the 850 line over/near DC. Sleet piles up just fine. My shovel will get a decent workout. Sleet/snow piles last longer too, as does the areal snow/sleet pack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 So are we going to name this storm thread or what Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Unicorn Resurrection Storm. You're welcome. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Even the NAM at HR60 looks good at H5. The NAM says what kicker? and the GFS really likes that GL low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Leesburg gets demolished. Paeonian Springs gets annihilated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Leesburg gets demolished. Paeonian Springs gets annihilated Thanks. Looking for 6 and it will be good. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I vote for no Wxbell snow maps unless we are certain all levels of the column support snow. The posted map couldn't be further from the truth of what would actually happen verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kregars Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I still see a major chance for ice in the mix. After having survived the Ice Storm of 98 in Clayton NY, systems like these keep me weary.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 00Z NAM is a foot of snow here. That's a classic track for I-81. Agreed. That is a crushing storm for the 81 corridor. Pretty nasty dry slot showing up on the sim radar as well. Like always someone will get screwed with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Can't believe the vd 2007 storm was 7 winters ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Most of that "Snow" in the WxBell map in the SouthEast is FZRA or Sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The Nam is a joke in SC and GA....Goes from almost 20 inches to 0 inches in a 10 mile span........really??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Can't believe the vd 2007 storm was 7 winters ago yep, time to change your underwear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The Nam is a joke in SC and GA....Goes from almost 20 inches to 0 inches in a 10 mile span........really??? Actually it's the wxbell clown maps that are a joke. If 850mb temps are well above freezing, but there's a cold spot lower in the column, those stupid maps will show snow, even if the model is actually depicting sleet or zr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 DCA: 140212/2300Z 71 06010KT 29.0F SNOW 11:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015 11:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 100| 0| 0140213/0000Z 72 04012KT 28.7F SNOW 9:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.052 10:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07 100| 0| 0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---140213/0100Z 73 04012KT 28.5F SNOW 10:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.084 10:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.15 100| 0| 0140213/0200Z 74 04013KT 28.5F SNOW 11:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.096 10:1| 2.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.25 100| 0| 0140213/0300Z 75 04016KT 28.5F SNOW 10:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.085 10:1| 3.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.33 91| 9| 0140213/0400Z 76 03020KT 29.4F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.24|| 0.231 10:1| 3.4|| 0.00|| 0.24|| 0.56 0| 0|100140213/0500Z 77 04018KT 30.8F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.19|| 0.181 10:1| 3.4|| 0.00|| 0.43|| 0.74 0| 0|100140213/0600Z 78 03015KT 31.7F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.14|| 0.130 10:1| 3.4|| 0.00|| 0.57|| 0.87 0| 0|100----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---140213/0700Z 79 36012KT 32.1F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.101 10:1| 3.4|| 0.00|| 0.57|| 0.98 0| 0|100140213/0800Z 80 35016KT 31.0F PL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.10|| 0.00|| 0.052 10:1| 3.4|| 0.10|| 0.57|| 1.03 0|100| 0140213/0900Z 81 35016KT 29.7F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.018 10:1| 3.4|| 0.10|| 0.59|| 1.04 0| 0|100140213/1000Z 82 36018KT 29.7F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.010 10:1| 3.4|| 0.10|| 0.60|| 1.06 0| 0|100140213/1100Z 83 36015KT 31.0F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.006 10:1| 3.4|| 0.10|| 0.60|| 1.06 0| 0|100140213/1200Z 84 36013KT 31.4F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.005 10:1| 3.4|| 0.10|| 0.61|| 1.07 0| 0|100============================================================================================================================ NAM even has mixing issues back this way. Like was said earlier. We all will see some sleet with the big ones. BWI is about identical to this Iad is a bit better. MRB is 11 inches through 84 all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Can't believe the vd 2007 storm was 7 winters ago I was 23 during the blizzard of 96..we are getting so old Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Pretty sure that the 00z GFS finally got a clue looking at hr 54 and its h5 depiction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 GFS might do it this run. Doesnt look as amped as the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 GFS might do it this run. Doesnt look as amped as the NAM Yup, beat me to it. It's definitely not as amped as the NAM but its better than its 18z run at the 500 level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I was 23 during the blizzard of 96..we are getting so old I started posting on boards 14 years ago after jan 2000:(. I'm 3 years older than you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 GFS might do it this run. Doesnt look as amped as the NAM Saying the gfs is not amped like the nam is like saying..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 still got the dual low business 0z thurs.. maybe a smidge better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'm not good at identifying phasing especially at the onset. Mets, is that phasing starting to occur at hr. 69? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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