stormtracker Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 Wrapped up too early for DCA....looks good for Winchester and points west. yup, that was my worry from early on. Good thing its the NAM I'm not sweating it...the problem is, every weenie in here will be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yeah, big hit for far N/W. 850s go above freezing between h75 and 78 for the cities. A few inches to begin followed by a PL/ZR fest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 NAM is a complete bomb. Definitely mixing issues but we'd go from snow to sleet back to snow probably. Hour 81 has the 850 line over/near DC. Those are the best. It takes an industrial jebman type shovel to get through the sleet layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Nam is still handling the evolution of the sfc different than the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 not a big fan of the 72 hour nam, but looks pretty possible..I'd say a decent chance of a mostly mix/rain event for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I am fine with the NAM... follow the Euro and Euro Ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yeah, big hit for far N/W. 850s go above freezing between h75 and 78 for the cities. A few inches to begin followed by a PL/ZR fest. Instantweathermaps still has double digit totals from Georgia to New York, wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Looked like an epic run for Northern/NW MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Couple things, nam as Ian said is not handling the energy the same way. Sfc temps are cold, and ice is a big problem for a lot of people on this run. Sleet also. Finally, what the hell are the admins doing with the site? If the server is jamming, there are at least a few things that can be done. Limiting the post numbers per page, making the avatars hidden, hiding members online. Get on the ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 not a big fan of the 72 hour nam, but looks pretty possible..I'd say a decent chance of a mostly mix/rain event for DC Can't believe u would put this much faith in nam Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 it's got a closed 500mb low over Raleigh and the surface further north I think there's a problem with the placement of the slp, but I could be wrong plus, there is more snow to fall past 84 hours as the upper level low comes up from NC imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Just looked at 84 sim rad mitch, agreed. the ULL would bring snow back into the picture. Bigtime ice event for 95 after 2-4" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 2m temps stay below freezing throughout... we can deal with 850 temps later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 the NAM definitely ISN'T rain. But it is wrapped and mixy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 Just looked at 84 sim rad mitch, agreed. the ULL would bring snow back into the picture. Bigtime ice event for 95 after 2-4" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 the NAM definitely ISN'T rain. But it is wrapped and mixy ,,,and likely wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Nam clown map look more snowy to my weenie eyes Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 What is the issue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 NCEP maps keep dca below freezing throughout the system at 10m. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_078_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00¶m=10m_wnd_precip&fhr=078&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The NAM is in an envelope of possible and worrying about a mix 95 and east is pretty much the norm in a miller a. But I'm still definitely going to favor the globals from midrun onward.. and thru then it's pretty similar to the Euro. It would be fun to go from a whiff to a rainstorm in 48 hours though just for the swings of many on the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 National guard will be needed to save Atlanta from annihilation if that clown map is right. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 idk, I think the mid levels are pretty warm for a closed 5H low this far south of us http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_081_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00¶m=500_vort_ht&fhr=081&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Might be some traffic issues in Georgia and South Carolina with this solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 This would be a HECS for the southern states as depicted.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 2m temps stay below freezing throughout... we can deal with 850 temps later beat me to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 00Z NAM is a foot of snow here. That's a classic track for I-81. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Even if the NAM solution turns out to be 100% correct, this would be a great storm here. Move the low 50-100 miles east, and its even better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Is it a surprise to anyone that the nam is super amped outside of 48 hours? It could be right as matt was saying but not because the nam is showing it at 60+ hours Mixing is almost inevitable for 95 corridor unless the stars align. I personally think this is a good run. Gfs should start showing some sort of consolidated coastal soon. Most likely in an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 850 0C looks like it barely makes it to IAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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