Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 i want to be in the purple for once--not always the dark green You got jma purple today didn't u? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Even if it's unrealistic and not likely to happen, I just want to see us get NAM'd once. To early, you want to be NAM'd Tuesday night even though it will still be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 18z NAVGEM is a whiff. If it matters.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 it actually might be a 12:1 to 15:1 when it first starts.... Pretty much agree. Onset we have a nice column and the euro brings it in hot and heavy. Even if we get scraped with an east solution the ratios would be nice. I'm not sure why but i'm not too worried about an overhead or close west track. More worried about late development and whiffing se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWX Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I am wondering if the Shenandoah Valley will do well or if we will get blocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 You mean 1' and not 1"... I presume. Sent from my SM-N900V 1" QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Pretty much agree. Onset we have a nice column and the euro brings it in hot and heavy. Even if we get scraped with an east solution the ratios would be nice. I'm not sure why but in not too worried about an overhead or close west track. More worried about late development and whiffing se. Bob, I'm more worried about a westward jog than the gfs.....the 18Z NAm run type of track or last night's Euro. Matt's worry about how often we get screwed in these kinds of situations is a legit worry. We want a positive tilt until the last minute. It's nice to see the SREF mean was quite a bit east of the 18Z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Back to the SQL errors this sucks. Yeah..thinking about just bailing for the evening runs....instead of just getting frustrated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The JMA fringed Leesburg. So, HPC did not include the GFS in its compromise forecast because of QPF bullseyes in Louisiana? Didn't the 18Z NAM have bullseyes in similar areas? I'm probably missing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'm now more worried about an overhead track. But we would still get snow for a time. Better than whiffing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Bob, I'm more worried about a westward jog than the gfs.....the 18Z NAm run type of track or last night's Euro. Matt's worry about how often we get screwed in these kinds of situations is a legit worry. We want a positive tilt until the last minute. It's nice to see the SREF mean was quite a bit east of the 18Z NAM.Either could happen but kinda wonder if the euro last night was peak amped. I don't even really care what the NAM shows right or wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The JMA fringed Leesburg. So, HPC did not include the GFS in its compromise forecast because of QPF bullseyes in Louisiana? Didn't the 18Z NAM have bullseyes in similar areas? I'm probably missing something. It didn't pick up the spotty sleet in Centreville today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Bob, I'm more worried about a westward jog than the gfs.....the 18Z NAm run type of track or last night's Euro. Matt's worry about how often we get screwed in these kinds of situations is a legit worry. We want a positive tilt until the last minute. It's nice to see the SREF mean was quite a bit east of the 18Z NAM. I'm kind of resigned like some of the others to getting mix and/or changeover...My big thing now is rates....I am sick of -SN...thats why for 30 minutes today was great....If I can get 3-4" of thump, I'll be happy.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Looks like the NAM is going to be slower this run with the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'm kind of resigned like some of the others to getting mix and/or changeover...My big thing now is rates....I am sick of -SN...thats why for 30 minutes today was great....If I can get 3-4" of thump, I'll be happy.... Fine with me too. If we mix we are in a precip bullseye of sorts. It's becoming reasonably clear that in that scenario the column supports a period of snow and likely heavy for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'm kind of resigned like some of the others to getting mix and/or changeover...My big thing now is rates....I am sick of -SN...thats why for 30 minutes today was great....If I can get 3-4" of thump, I'll be happy.... I'd be surprised if I didn't mix/changeover. With this type of system I have even more problems then DCA unless I get in a good band early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CamdenfromMAWP Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 What's the 18z NAM showing? (sorry if it's already came out and been discussed) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 What's the 18z NAM showing? (sorry if it's already came out and been discussed)Still running.oh and it's the 00z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 What's the 18z NAM showing? (sorry if it's already came out and been discussed) The 18z NAM came out about 6 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 What's the 18z NAM showing? (sorry if it's already came out and been discussed) We are in the 00z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 What's the 18z NAM showing? (sorry if it's already came out and been discussed) It already has "came" out- hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The 0Z run is going now. Others will post details as the run nears its end (84h) and gets more in our range. It's only out to 39h now. I believe yoda posted a link for you earlier today that shows when the various models run. What's the 18z NAM showing? (sorry if it's already came out and been discussed) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 What's the 18z NAM showing? (sorry if it's already came out and been discussed) You're about to get popped dude. Lurk and learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Looks like at Panel 39... the SW is about 150 miles west southwest of panel 45 on the 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 You're about to get popped dude. Lurk and learn.hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Def more worried about whiff track than inland track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Thru 48, NAM a bit south of 18Z. And slightly colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Thru 48, NAM a bit south of 18Z. And slightly colder. It looks much different through 51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 now I'm worried I'm not worried about the right thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CamdenfromMAWP Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 What's the 18z NAM showing? (sorry if it's already came out and been discussed) Extremely sorry, I meant 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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