Ji Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 This storm with the least hype and most negativity might be the one lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The best thing about this setup is there is still a lot of room for improvement. This time tomorrow night we could be looking at a foot + region wide with lollies to 18. I am growing increasingly concerned about the possibility of thunder snow in the places that get into the best dynamics. With this comes the possibility of power outages as the winds begin to increase as the coastal undergoes bombogenesis. If anything this setup is the polar opposite, a lot can go wrong and its a thread the needle for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The best thing about this setup is there is still a lot of room for improvement. This time tomorrow night we could be looking at a foot + region wide with lollies to 18. I am growing increasingly concerned about the possibility of thunder snow in the places that get into the best dynamics. With this comes the possibility of power outages as the winds begin to increase as the coastal undergoes bombogenesis. There are still some issues that could mess it up though. No need to go out on a limb for the biggest possible scenario.. To get way past what we've already seen on the Euro we'd need something special to happen like the trough going negative at just the right time or something. It's not going to move very slowly otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 This storm with the least hype and most negativity might be the one lol The high sucks but the storm is going to run into some really cold air (well, at least the tail end of it... but good pre-game conditions). We need to walk a line with the right track and strength... but as is, hard to be too concerned about the sfc at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Hadn't seen this in here. From the SE thread. HPC..... THE MORE NORTHERN SOLUTIONS OF THE 12ZECMWF/UKMET/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN REMAIN POSSIBLE BUT HAVE LOWER PROBABILITIES...DUE IN PART TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE HIGHFORMING OVER THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND. I'm not sure if you posted this for something to worry about here or not. But it certainly doesn't worry me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerpWeather Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Is this the storm we're talking about. Because WPC is almost dismissing the GFS AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST WED~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~PREFERENCE: NON-GFS COMPROMISECONFIDENCE: AVERAGEA BROAD AND SLOWLY AMPLIFYING RIDGE UPSTREAM SHOULD GUARANTEE ASTRONGER SYSTEM WITH TIME, BUT ITS PROGRESSION HINTS THAT A FASTERPROGRESSION WITH THIS DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE IS MORE LIKELY. THISHAS BEEN BORNE OUT IN THE ECMWF TRENDS SINCE ITS 00Z RUN, THOUGHIT HAS ALSO TRENDED MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED ALOFT. THE 12Z GFSSHOWS A MENAGERIE OF CONVECTIVE/GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK BULL'S EYESFROM NORTHERN LOUISIANA EASTWARD FROM LATE TUESDAY ONWARD, WHICHCAN EXPLAIN ITS QUICKER PROGRESSION. WITH CONVERGING GUIDANCEALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE, BELIEVE A NON-GFS COMPROMISE IS THE BESTCOURSE OF ACTION FOR THE TIME BEING, PREFERRED WITH AVERAGECONFIDENCE CONSIDERING THE SYSTEM'S PROGRESSIVE NATURE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 This storm with the least hype and most negativity might be the one lol Lets keep it up then! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cng885 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Any mets want to weigh in on what kind of ratio's we are looking at? 8-1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'm not sure if you posted this for something to worry about here or not. But it certainly doesn't worry me. nope, just sharing what the pros are writing.NAM running....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Any mets want to weigh in on what kind of ratio's we are looking at? 8-1? I'm no met but its way too early to even think about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Hadn't seen this in here. From the SE thread. HPC..... THE MORE NORTHERN SOLUTIONS OF THE 12ZECMWF/UKMET/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN REMAIN POSSIBLE BUT HAVE LOWER PROBABILITIES...DUE IN PART TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE HIGHFORMING OVER THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND. I approve of your reality check Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Any mets want to weigh in on what kind of ratio's we are looking at? 8-1?Snow would prob be in the 10:1 range until it turns to 2:1 sleet and 1:1 rain. Honestly, no reason to discuss this yet. IF we get snow it will be nice at onset with cold surface/column. Anything goes down the line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I checked them too.. and 700. I'm in full on addict mode for now. Those birthday shots are taking hold.. Hope you had a good one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 There are still some issues that could mess it up though. No need to go out on a limb for the biggest possible scenario.. To get way past what we've already seen on the Euro we'd need something special to happen like the trough going negative at just the right time or something. It's not going to move very slowly otherwise. It looks to me like a pretty typical imperfect 3-6/4-8" event with some mixing south and east....if everything goes perfectly then maybe an event with 8-12" totals...but that would have to be perfect...certainly does not look like a HECS in any fashion......all options are on the table, but a 1"+ all snow event seems unlikely for DC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'm wondering how many times we had this setup and got screwed with changeover/mix issues or a too far west track and lots of rain or a whiff with 1-2" amounts....I am guessing a ton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 And so begins the slow, tragic walk backwards that has been the last three weeks. I'm not liking the trend the last few runs. say what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 SREF looks great all around to me. I'd take it. It's not done at the end either. Yup. We're at .5 and we still have more to go. I like it. I think we'll keep happy Ian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 The best thing about this setup is there is still a lot of room for improvement. This time tomorrow night we could be looking at a foot + region wide with lollies to 18. I am growing increasingly concerned about the possibility of thunder snow in the places that get into the best dynamics. With this comes the possibility of power outages as the winds begin to increase as the coastal undergoes bombogenesis. Please keep us posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Any mets want to weigh in on what kind of ratio's we are looking at? 8-1? Seriously? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'm wondering how many times we had this setup and got screwed with changeover/mix issues or a too far west track and lots of rain or a whiff with 1-2" amounts....I am guessing a ton I can't remember last time we had this setup. Not since I joined eastern in 06 unless my memory sux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 ... but a 1"+ all snow event seems unlikely for DC... You mean 1' and not 1"... I presume. Sent from my SM-N900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 You mean 1' and not 1"... I presume. Sent from my SM-N900V He's speaking in terms of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 say what? He has been drinking with Ian for his birthday so go easy on him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Happy Ian who wants snow should make everyone excited, for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 You mean 1' and not 1"... I presume. Sent from my SM-N900V He is talking about liquid not snow accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'm wondering how many times we had this setup and got screwed with changeover/mix issues or a too far west track and lots of rain or a whiff with 1-2" amounts....I am guessing a ton Probably a fair amount but I am with Bob.. this particular setup is not too common except for the mid level pass. If we're ever going to cash in on a marginal surface setup it's this time of year, starting overnight, and coming off a cold few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 Even if it's unrealistic and not likely to happen, I just want to see us get NAM'd once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Snow would prob be in the 10:1 range until it turns to 2:1 sleet and 1:1 rain. Honestly, no reason to discuss this yet. IF we get snow it will be nice at onset with cold surface/column. Anything goes down the line it actually might be a 12:1 to 15:1 when it first starts.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Even if it's unrealistic and not likely to happen, I just want to see us get NAM'd once. i want to be in the purple for once--not always the dark green Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Even if it's unrealistic and not likely to happen, I just want to see us get NAM'd once. That's half the fun of tracking these events. Seeing the extreme of what could be, and hoping it is a trend setter or will verify is what makes this hobby interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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