snowfan Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 euro ens snow maps posted in the SE thread. 8-12 running up through DC proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I guess we will have to wait till 00z for the GFS to get a clue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CamdenfromMAWP Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 EURO Ensemble snow maps from DT https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=645451385502123&set=a.148807335166533.25889.129478830432717&type=1&theater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I guess we will have to wait till 00z for the GFS to get a clue Yeah. Still suppressed, but looks like its NW of 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 GFS still seems like it has no clue on how to handle that shortwave down south. Once we get inside 72 hours I think itll finally get a good grasp on the system. Until then go with the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I guess we will have to wait till 00z for the GFS to get a clue Yeah, but it took another step towards the Euro/GGEM/NAM/Ukie/SREF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 GFS still hasnt figured it out.....maybe 0.15" here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 GFS still hasnt figured it out.....maybe 0.15" here one the one hand....yes! on the other hand, this is where the GFS is supposed to be in this time frame and not bull's eyeing us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Rare to see drastic change from 12z to 18z run. Maybe 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 GFS still hasnt figured it out.....maybe 0.15" here I like it since I don't want negative tilt as quick as the NAM. Give me a blend and I'd be a blend and I'd be happy. Like most, I suspect that the GFS will come west on some sater run. PS. my ground is getting white. For the GFS not a bad run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I like it since I don't want negative tilt as quick as the NAM. Give me a blend and I'd be a blend and I'd be happy. Like most, I suspect that the GFS will come west on some sater run. PS. my ground is getting white. For the GFS not a bad run. 0.3" here..got legit 1/2 mi mod snow for a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 0.3" here..got legit 1/2 mi mod snow for a bit I've got moderate but doubt I'll see as much as you got, the band is thinner down here. Still, I'm happy, I was taking a walk with a friend when it got going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I'm just surprised at how far apart the GFS and EURO are still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 18Z NAM Cobb for DCA and obviously, more to come after 84. 4.2" SN .17" PL .21" ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OleFalls Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Happy Birthday Ian, wishing you many, many more. And, Thank You for sharing your posts with all of us lurkers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Following winter storms on models for half of my life, seen this a million times. By 12z tomorrow this storm will be in the 72 hour zone. Thats when you'll generally see the GFS make big adjustments towards the actual solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Cobb for 18Z NAM at RIC is kinda silly.... 7.1" SN .5" ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CamdenfromMAWP Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Is thundersnow possible with this system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Happy Birthday Ian, wishing you many, many more. And, Thank You for sharing your posts with all of us lurkers. Thanks Is thundersnow possible with this system? In the bigger scenarios probably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Hasn't the GFS been performing better than the euro in this frame lately? I'm not quick to dismiss this solution. I wonder if aliens on other planets have weather forums. And I also wonder if there is an alien word for "backbuilding." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CamdenfromMAWP Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 In the bigger scenarios probably Thanks Ian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 EPS members are pretty sweet. I won't go into a ton of detail but half the members spit out over 1" precip. Only 2 whiffs. 14 members have 1.4"+. Big signal for a significant event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Hasn't the GFS been performing better than the euro in this frame lately? I'm not quick to dismiss this solution. I wonder if aliens on other planets have weather forums. And I also wonder if there is an alien word for "backbuilding." I wonder if there is a forum where you actually add substance and not troll all the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 When does the 0z NAM start running? (9,10?) This should help you -- http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/prodstat/index.html#TARGET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 When does the 0z NAM start running? (9,10?) NAM ~9, GFS ~ 1030 EURO ~1245 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 When does the 0z NAM start running? (9,10?) Some of this is probably better for the banter thread. Not a place for every Q to be A'd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 When does the 0z NAM start running? (9,10?) 9 p.m.. Piece of advice for you we were all like you once, but you have to know the time and place to ask these questions. Try the banter thread and also look around. The NY subforum has a thread explaining all the model start times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 EPS members are pretty sweet. I won't go into a ton of detail but half the members spit out over 1" precip. Only 2 whiffs. 14 members have 1.4"+. Big signal for a significant event. Very nice... thank you Bob. 14 of 51 is right around 27%... so it seems that a quarter of the ensembles are 1.4"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 GEFS mean dumps dumb OP with its dual barrel lows... has one low at 84 -- 1008 mb ESE of WIlmington NC... 96 is 1001 mb about 200-250 miles east of OC... 850s look fine Mean QPF-wise is a tad east of our liking FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 18z GEFS mean has 0.45" for DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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