Ian Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Yes, but this is also the period that our 850's get the warmest. We're going to mix regardless...I hope everyone has the expectations grounded and realize this. Doesn't look like plain rain at this point, but this won't be an all snow event for most of us except the favored N and W areas. I don't think that's a given. Yesterday everyone said this storm wasn't going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 verbatim, DC flips at around 9pm, and most of us in DC metro by midnight...but a really nice thump before then and likely back to snow at some point..snow-sleet-snow yea, not going to go into much detail with the nam late in the run. It's more of a mental exercise vs what will really happen. 850's @ hr 81 and 84 respectively Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2014 Author Share Posted February 9, 2014 The NAM is cool except it's keying in on something different than the other models. It's probably wrong with the front running low being the main deal. I noticed that as well. Seems to me the main low should be down by the GA/South Carolina coast at 84 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 9, 2014 Author Share Posted February 9, 2014 I don't think that's a given. Yesterday everyone said this storm wasn't going to happen. Really? I think we have a good shot at mixing. Pretty doubtful of an all snow event, especially with the high position, although Wxman1 showed how it can be done (Jan 87 storm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I noticed that as well. Seems to me the main low should be down by the GA/South Carolina coast at 84 hours It's likely wrong. The GFS even if sucky has the low way south at that time. Euro has some brief bagginess early but it doesn't key in on the first part really. I'm not sure the dual low idea won't happen at this point but I'd be pretty confident analyzing the NAM at 84 is a waste of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I name the storm - The White Album Beatles - 50th anniversary of playing DC - February 11, 1964 (8" snowstorm for DC) Winter Olympics in Russia Back in the USSR - on White Album, Snow is white (or yellow/brown in DC) Oh, show me around your snow-peaked mountains way down south Take me to your daddy's farm Let me hear your balalaika's ringing out Come and keep your comrade warm I support that 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Really? I think we have a good shot at mixing. Pretty doubtful of an all snow event, especially with the high position, although Wxman1 showed how it can be done (Jan 87 storm). Well we mix a lot around here so it's always possible. The high is not ideal but the Euro ens is probably all snow and the Euro is close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Really? I think we have a good shot at mixing. Pretty doubtful of an all snow event, especially with the high position, although Wxman1 showed how it can be done (Jan 87 storm). Low could easily take a further east track based on water temps and baroclinic zone. No way to pin that down until maybe tuesday morning and even then. I'm rusty with coastals now. Haven't had one like this in 4 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cng885 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The NAM is cool except it's keying in on something different than the other models. It's probably wrong with the front running low being the main deal. Isn't the nam the only one really showing the front low being real wet? I may be wrong, but I was pretty euro and gfs didn't have much for the front low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Isn't the nam the only one really showing the front low being real wet? I may be wrong, but I was pretty euro and gfs didn't have much for the front low. It's faster than any of the globals right now that's for sure. I think it's because it sucks at that range. The NAVGEM also has two lows but both are actually rather good.. also wrong but eh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I think in my neck of the woods (Blacksburg area) backbuilding will occur, what do y'all think? Um, a little early to be worrying about such details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 It's likely wrong. The GFS even if sucky has the low way south at that time. Euro has some brief bagginess early but it doesn't key in on the first part really. I'm not sure the dual low idea won't happen at this point but I'd be pretty confident analyzing the NAM at 84 is a waste of time. it is and people will still do it. Storm is there, details to be worked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 it is and people will still do it. Storm is there, details to be worked out. It's good it gives us precip at least. The GFS is close to the euro through like 78.. it will catch on soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Really? I think we have a good shot at mixing. Pretty doubtful of an all snow event, especially with the high position, although Wxman1 showed how it can be done (Jan 87 storm). but that storm was a complete white-out.....gymengineer probably recalls better, but I believe people abandoned their cars all over the city....I got almost 14", and most of it fell in about 6-7 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Just because it looks cool. The nam @ 84 implies back to back coastals. heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 but that storm was a complete white-out.....gymengineer probably recalls better, but I believe people abandoned their cars all over the city....I got almost 14", and most of it fell in about 6-7 hours... My point was more nuance is better at this point given 24 hours ago everyone was tossing the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmcwahoo Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Don't really understand why this is hard for y'all to name. You've been talking about a unicorn storm in this period for like 10 days.....well here's your unicorn storm. It's a great name and it's actually working out. I say no brainer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 NAM doing its normal thing. Typical model bias of having 2 lows on the coast for potential storms at this range. Seen it a million times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CamdenfromMAWP Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I was saying backbuilding might occur (it almost always does) because the models aren't really showing that and could up our (SW VA) snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Don't really understand why this is hard for y'all to name. You've been talking about a unicorn storm in this period for like 10 days.....well here's your unicorn storm. It's a great name and it's actually working out. I say no brainerExcept its a different storm and storms don't need names. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I was saying backbuilding might occur (it almost always does) because the models aren't really showing that and could up our (SW VA) snow totals. If it almost always occurs, then I'd say you've got a solid chance of it occurring. Enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerpWeather Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Euro's ensembles back the Euro/Canadian track. 850 0C line is southeast of DC at 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I love talking about snow storms when it's snowing outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelScott Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I was saying backbuilding might occur (it almost always does) because the models aren't really showing that and could up our (SW VA) snow totals. It actually doesn't almost always occur, especially down here. Speculating about the potential at this point is sort of irrelevant, anyway. If the NAM is to be believed you don't need back building, there's another batch of precip on its way already @ hr 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 GFS starting........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Euro's ensembles back the Euro/Canadian track. 850 0C line is southeast of DC at 96 As in the individ EURO ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Kmart is is more than all in http://www.theweatherspace.com/2014/02/09/most-reliable-model-projecting-a-march-1993-like-super-storm-noreaster-for-the-eastern-united-states/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerpWeather Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Ensemble means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 HR 96 on the means. Best run yet. Other panels better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The 1-2-3 storm succession with our pseudo-H.A. signal is working out almost in a classic-sense. The first wave last week was a precip loaded, +NAO to "-NAO" transition. Today's the second wave, usually the one with the least precip. The final wave is looking like a classic -NAO to +NAO transition. The cool thing is, Matt brought up late Feb 2010. In that situation, the PV that dropped down along side of the west NAO block actually got involved with the noreaster/southern s/w. The models have increasingly trended toward that influence and it's something to keep watching, obviously, as we go forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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