thunderman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I would definitely hedge on the western side 2/3 of the track envelope at this point in time, with the Euro, NAM (not that that means much at 84 hours), CMC, and others going west. GEFS members are also noticeably west of the OP GFS.As a side note, CMC and it's ensembles are oriented the opposite way ... so I wouldn't be surprise to see the CMC shift the wrong direction in next run or 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 looks a little less than .5 that but way better than the op all the way up into maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Thanks...I just looked at the canadian ensembles and they are dry for DCA....around 0.25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 11:06 PM, thunderman said: I would definitely hedge on the western side 2/3 of the track envelope at this point in time, with the Euro, NAM (not that that means much at 84 hours), CMC, and others going west. GEFS members are also noticeably west of the OP GFS. As a side note, CMC and it's ensembles are oriented the opposite way ... so I wouldn't be surprise to see the CMC shift the wrong direction in next run or 3. cmc.gif gefs.gif pres_short.gif Maybe i am slow, but what do you mean by that?. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CamdenfromMAWP Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 11:00 PM, Ian said: Some of this is probably better for the banter thread. Not a place for every Q to be A'd. On 2/9/2014 at 11:00 PM, ravensrule said: 9 p.m.. Piece of advice for you we were all like you once, but you have to know the time and place to ask these questions. Try the banter thread and also look around. The NY subforum has a thread explaining all the model start times. I know my stuff (you'd be surprised) I was just making sure. Sorry, I won't ask "stupid questions" anymore. I know better . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 just because Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 11:14 PM, ravensrule said: Maybe i am slow, but what do you mean by that?. Thanks. GFS OP is east of its ensembles... GGEM OP is west of its ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 11:14 PM, ravensrule said: Maybe i am slow, but what do you mean by that?. Thanks. The OP is on the western edge of the ensemble envelope (opposite of the GFS, which is on the eastern side of it's ensembles). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 11:22 PM, thunderman said: The OP is on the western edge of the ensemble envelope (opposite of the GFS, which is on the eastern side of it's ensembles). Ah ok got it thank you very much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 11:06 PM, thunderman said: I would definitely hedge on the western side 2/3 of the track envelope at this point in time, with the Euro, NAM (not that that means much at 84 hours), CMC, and others going west. GEFS members are also noticeably west of the OP GFS. As a side note, CMC and it's ensembles are oriented the opposite way ... so I wouldn't be surprise to see the CMC shift the wrong direction in next run or 3. cmc.gif gefs.gif pres_short.gif Where'd you get the nice cyclone tracks? I tried googling and couldn't find them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 11:19 PM, yoda said: GFS OP is east of its ensembles... GGEM OP is west of its ensembles Thanks Yoda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redskinsnut Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 6:55 PM, snow. said: a track 40 miles west would be rain Not according to this weather chick on Channel 4! She says west means snow and east means rain. LOL!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 11:30 PM, redskinsnut said: Not according to this weather chick on Channel 4! She says west means snow and east means rain. LOL!! Nice dress, explanation not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerpWeather Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 11:30 PM, redskinsnut said: Not according to this weather chick on Channel 4! She says west means snow and east means rain. LOL!! whoops, other way around there Amelia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joeride Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 11:00 PM, Ian said: Some of this is probably better for the banter thread. Not a place for every Q to be A'd. Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k94 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 11:22 PM, usedtobe said: Where'd you get the nice cyclone tracks? I tried googling and couldn't find them. Here you go Wes. http://meteocentre.com/tracking/track.php?&mod=cmc_geps&run=12〈=en&area=na Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 11:14 PM, camden_mariotti said: I know my stuff (you'd be surprised) I was just making sure. Sorry, I won't ask "stupid questions" anymore. I know better . Don't forget to use courier font or no one will take you seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 11:30 PM, redskinsnut said: Not according to this weather chick on Channel 4! She says west means snow and east means rain. LOL!! Looks like I finally found a reason to watch local weekend news weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 11:36 PM, WxWatcher007 said: This was really helpful. The maps are awesome too. Thanks. Immediately I laughed hard and then shook my head. We all make mistakes, right? she's pretty young to have a gig in such a big market.. probably just a mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 The GEFS is kind of a mirage because none of the individual members are that good from DC Northward, They're either too wrapped up or OTS. This is one of those cases where the mean doesn't really mean much, at least IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redskinsnut Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 11:36 PM, WxWatcher007 said: This was really helpful. The maps are awesome too. Thanks. Immediately I laughed hard and then shook my head. We all make mistakes, right? On 2/9/2014 at 11:37 PM, Yeoman said: Looks like a finally found a reason to watch local weekend news weather. On 2/9/2014 at 11:38 PM, Ian said: she's pretty young to have a gig in such a big market.. probably just a mistake. She said it with a straight face and looked right at DC and conveyed west track would be snow. On a side note I definitely have a thing for women weathercasters.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 11:22 PM, usedtobe said: Where'd you get the nice cyclone tracks? I tried googling and couldn't find them. http://meteocentre.com/tracking/track.php?area=na&mod=compar&run=12&map=pres&range=short〈=fr I had to go searching as well. Forever bookmarked now though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I need some new models to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 11:44 PM, Ian said: I need some new models to look at. The nam can't start running hourly soon enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 11:46 PM, Bob Chill said: The nam can't start running hourly soon enough RAP is already in range for some of the 500mb trough hitting the coast of British Columbia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 11:53 PM, Ian said: RAP is already in range for some of the 500mb trough hitting the coast of British Columbia. rap_namer_017_500_vort_ht.gif nam_namer_021_500_vort_ht.gif Extrapolated, I'd go 24-36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 ok.. we get the pt guys. women read the board too you pervs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 11:57 PM, Scuddz said: Extrapolated, I'd go 24-36I was worried it seemed a little slow on the rap but that might aid down the line. I'm going to hold you to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 On 2/9/2014 at 11:46 PM, Bob Chill said: The nam can't start running hourly soon enough well, this is what the 18z dgex says the extrapolated NAM would finish with some wrap around....and then it has the next weekend event before everything goes into the porcelain bowl http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_18z/dgexloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 On 2/10/2014 at 12:04 AM, mitchnick said: well, this is what the 18z dgex says the extrapolated NAM would finish with some wrap around....and then it has the next weekend event before everything goes into the porcelain bowl http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_18z/dgexloop.html 18z gefs has some support for next weekend. If we can get at least a decent snowfall (4"+ areawide) on Wed then I'm good with a nice warmup. I've wasted a lot of time this winter tracking. It's been a busy year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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