nrgjeff Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 12Z Euro (Saturday) is in agreement with NAM in forecasting accumulating snow Monday-Tuesday from the Mid South to the Carolinas, including the Tennessee River Valley. Temperature profiles are not a slam dunk from HSV to CHA, and QPF is not a slam dunk north of I-40; however, I'm confident some, perhaps many, in our region will enjoy a few inches of snow. Timing of precipitation onset is the first question. NAM starts it Monday, not wasting any time setting up overrrning isentropic lift. It is somewhat reasonable once CAA from the Sunday night wave ceases, but NAM is a minority report. Even if snow is delayed until Monday night, decent QPF is noted on the Euro and GFS. These are the first few runs to show good snow temperature profiles from HSV to Chatty. I'm cautious for now. I like Muscle Shoals to Maryville even better if these runs were perfect progs, but I'd be crazy to forecast that yet. Oh yeah, that is north of the highest QPF, which brings us to the next issue. What about our friends along I-40, or even Tri Cities and East Kentucky? I'd rather be up on the north end of the QPF than worrying about temp profiles. You are in the game! Many of these questions will be influenced by the surface high to the north. Just last night I was afraid it was a zero sum game between Tennessee and North Carolina - you know timing issues and if you fart the wrong direction. Now looks like a bit stronger surface high and more cold air in place - even if just barely. I will not get into the Carolinas, but just want to note we are all in the game at the moment. Tennessee, North Alabama and North Georgia, I don't see anything more than the January 2011 snow, but perhaps the best since then. Event is Monday or Tuesday so lots can change either way. For now I like a few inches possible anywhere from the Mid South through the Tennessee Valley into NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Thanks for your thoughts Jeff, always appreciate a pros opinion.... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Thanks Jeff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Good luck over here guys! Just saw parts of TN,AL, and MS have been issued WSW. Hope yall get hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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