Typhoon Tip Posted June 1, 2014 Share Posted June 1, 2014 Hello folks... I WILL be bringing my poster comparing the Blizzard of 1978 to the Blizzard of 2013 with me to the AmWx Conference in July in Baltimore. I HOPE to see some of you weenies there!! Plus, if possible, I'll bring along my laptop and show my PowerPoint show about the Feb '13 storm. Got a good radar loop in it!!!! #wxporn hehe... --Turtle Wouldn't mind seeing that .. .but I won't be able to make the trek south to Baltimore. Whens the next one in Providence ? Anyway, one aspect of the Feb' 2013 storm that took some polish off the historical panache of the event, was that it's progression kept the whole of it at less than 18 hours. If that sucker had stalled and did the ole loop-dee-loop as it did that whole collocations with the ULL type scenario, than you'd really be talking comparable to lore. As is, it was a block-buster ...and historic event; but as amazing as it may have been for many, they can only vaguely imagine how bad that really could have gotten if there was a stronger N-stream sting jet to come in the underside and really core out a blackhole in the atmosphere... A stall would have transpired, with perhaps an additional 10mb of deepening over what occurred, and who knows what kind of wind and snow totals would have taken place in that sort of scenario. Beaut of a bomb tho - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 Wouldn't mind seeing that .. .but I won't be able to make the trek south to Baltimore. Whens the next one in Providence ? Anyway, one aspect of the Feb' 2013 storm that took some polish off the historical panache of the event, was that it's progression kept the whole of it at less than 18 hours. If that sucker had stalled and did the ole loop-dee-loop as it did that whole collocations with the ULL type scenario, than you'd really be talking comparable to lore. As is, it was a block-buster ...and historic event; but as amazing as it may have been for many, they can only vaguely imagine how bad that really could have gotten if there was a stronger N-stream sting jet to come in the underside and really core out a blackhole in the atmosphere... A stall would have transpired, with perhaps an additional 10mb of deepening over what occurred, and who knows what kind of wind and snow totals would have taken place in that sort of scenario. Beaut of a bomb tho - So you're saying there is a chance one day for a widespread 3-5FT bomb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 I'm still blown away at the tree damage. Eleanor, I don't know if you ever saw..but there were literally swaths of forest blown down in Marshfield. My guess it may have been just strong winds and wet snow combo...but I've never seen anything like it. It literally looks like something from a spotter training session regarding microbursts. Some of the pics are in the lawn thread..page 5. Had two claps of thunder in that...one seemingly C-G and the other C-C..at least based on the sound. Heaviest snow I have seen in a long time from about 8pm-11pm or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 I will forever hate North Carolina til the day I die. My wife and i moved from CT to NC on Jan 31st lol... Worst timing! I was probably the only sicko weather nerd who stayed up all night for a snowstorm 800miles away. I was in shock, awe, jealous, envious, and downright pissed. Needless to say, when summer was over, we sold the house in NC and moved back. I cant live without the big bombs. You guys were awesome during nemo though, this board was on an acidic high. I feel your pain. As a kid I relocated to NC just before the Feb 83 blizzard. It haunts me to this day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 I feel your pain. As a kid I relocated to NC just before the Feb 83 blizzard. It haunts me to this day. I've been pretty lucky on the front of not missing huge storms...though being out in Ithaca, NY in college during 2/5/01 was pretty bad. Watching ORH get 18.5" of snow in an epic deformation commahead while we got fringed with 1 inch in Ithaca was tough to stomach. Didn't keep me from being glued to the computer and radar though. I was back home though not too long after and the snow pack was awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 I've been pretty lucky on the front of not missing huge storms...though being out in Ithaca, NY in college during 2/5/01 was pretty bad. Watching ORH get 18.5" of snow in an epic deformation commahead while we got fringed with 1 inch in Ithaca was tough to stomach. Didn't keep me from being glued to the computer and radar though. I was back home though not too long after and the snow pack was awesome. That's the one biggie I missed. For whatever reason over the years despite going on winter trips/vacations, I've always been here for the "Big one" Nemo was close-we changed our ski trip by a week-the original itinerary had me trying to fly back that evening (Sat 2/8) 2/5/01 is one of my favorite busts...forecast was for a quick change to rain....12 inches of cement later...no changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 Missing December '92 by 10 miles sucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 That's the one biggie I missed. For whatever reason over the years despite going on winter trips/vacations, I've always been here for the "Big one" Nemo was close-we changed our ski trip by a week-the original itinerary had me trying to fly back that evening (Sat 2/8) 2/5/01 is one of my favorite busts...forecast was for a quick change to rain....12 inches of cement later...no changeover. Feb '83 is a tough one to miss down that way too considering the regime it occurred in....it was the last "Big One" in that region probably until Feb '94 double barrel system....unless you count Mar '93, but it might have been marginal to call Mar '93 an epic storm in that area. We've been lucky recently to experience some big time storms not too many years apart (and some winters in the same season). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 Missing December '92 by 10 miles sucked. That doesnt count. That's due to your location sucking, not being out of town... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 Feb '83 is a tough one to miss down that way too considering the regime it occurred in....it was the last "Big One" in that region probably until Feb '94 double barrel system....unless you count Mar '93, but it might have been marginal to call Mar '93 an epic storm in that area. We've been lucky recently to experience some big time storms not too many years apart (and some winters in the same season). Those were some lean years. Hope they don't come back when the AMO goes negative in a few years. (I know there's more to it than that, but that period was a solid -AMO) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 That doesnt count. That's due to your location sucking, not being out of town... It's probably worse...lol. I just threw it in there for humor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 Those were some lean years. Hope they don't come back when the AMO goes negative in a few years. (I know there's more to it than that, but that period was a solid -AMO) AMO went negative in the 1960s but the PDO was still negative at the time...it was really the -AMO/+PDO combo which was awful..PDO flipped back positive in the late 70s and then we were off to the races with 15 years of horror. The AMO flipped to positive in the mid 1990s which seemed to coincide with the end of our snow drought. I'm sure some of it was good old fashioned bad luck too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 Just want another Feb 78 before I die, which was before I was born. And perhaps 25-50 miles further SE? If not I'd take another 2005, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 AMO went negative in the 1960s but the PDO was still negative at the time...it was really the -AMO/+PDO combo which was awful..PDO flipped back positive in the late 70s and then we were off to the races with 15 years of horror. The AMO flipped to positive in the mid 1990s which seemed to coincide with the end of our snow drought. I'm sure some of it was good old fashioned bad luck too. Definitely some bad luck. I figure we have 3-5 year left of the +AMO? Maybe a bit longer for the -PDO, going to be some overlap with a -AMO and +PDO in the coming years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 That's the one biggie I missed. For whatever reason over the years despite going on winter trips/vacations, I've always been here for the "Big one" Nemo was close-we changed our ski trip by a week-the original itinerary had me trying to fly back that evening (Sat 2/8) 2/5/01 is one of my favorite busts...forecast was for a quick change to rain....12 inches of cement later...no changeover. Missed the good bands from Nemo, but an 11" snowstorm is never a bad thing, even when areas within 30 miles get 2'+. What I've been oddly consistent in missing is big Nov snows. I've lived in 4 places (BGR,Ft.Kent,Gardiner,New Sharon) since moving to Maine in Jan 1973. Taken together, those towns (substituting Farmington for NS due to short period of record at the latter) have recorded a dozen Nov snows of 10"+ since 1973, and my respective times of residence have managed to avoid all 12. However, I came close on 11/23/11 with 9.7" - we all know how that winter turned out, so maybe I shouldn't complain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 "The" Ninos have a tendency to produce KUs right?...let's just hope it's cold enough cuz I can see next winter being warm and rainy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 "The" Ninos have a tendency to produce KUs right?...let's just hope it's cold enough cuz I can see next winter being warm and rainy. There has been a KU in every El Nino since 2002...though the V-day 2007 storm is kind of a stretch even though it's on the NESIS list. The KU book would probably characterize that as a "near miss". El Ninos without KUs are 1997-1998 and 1991-1992 in the past 30 years. Each one had some special circumstances...'97-'98 being the insane magnitude of the Nino and '92 having an arcitc PV on steroids shortly after Pinatubo erupted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 Don't even get me started on missed storms... 1978 (living in LA) 1983 (living in LA) 1993 superstorm (speaking engagement in Dallas) December 2003 huge snow (meeting in Dallas) 12/9/05: meeting I'm San Diego I aborted planned trips to avoid missing 2/2003 and 1/2005. And I will not travel to dfw I'm the winter. Period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 What's with inability to edit using Tapatalk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 There has been a KU in every El Nino since 2002...though the V-day 2007 storm is kind of a stretch even though it's on the NESIS list. The KU book would probably characterize that as a "near miss". The significant populations (humans + animals that is) greatly appreciated that near miss. Waterbury, VT before the wind kicked in that evening/night and all hell broke loose. That was almost like two different storms...like 16-24" of snowfall followed by another 8-12" of wind whipped tempest. for the first part the snow fell straight down and heavily...the second part the snow fell horizontally and heavily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 The significant populations (humans + animals that is) greatly appreciated that near miss. Waterbury, VT before the wind kicked in that evening/night and all hell broke loose. That was almost like two different storms...like 16-24" of snowfall followed by another 8-12" of wind whipped tempest. for the first part the snow fell straight down and heavily...the second part the snow fell horizontally and heavily. waterbury_2007_vday.jpg Still one of the greatest storms I've seen along with 10/29/11 in Rindge NH and 2/25/10 in Dobbs Ferry NY. Incredible rates at Middlebury during the V-day blitz, temperatures dropping into the teens and single digits, and wicked winds. A true blizzard for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 VDay 07 did us quite well in the foothills, too. It was a good test of my recently acquired 2WD Mazda pickup, as I had to make a round trip to Farmington at the height of the storm. The COOP measured 23.0" on 3.06" LE, while somehow just 6 miles to the east I had 15.5" on 1.80" LE. The snow difference was odd; the LE difference unreal. Since temps were singles to low teens throughout, it wasn't a p-type issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 3, 2014 Share Posted June 3, 2014 VDay 07 did us quite well in the foothills, too. It was a good test of my recently acquired 2WD Mazda pickup, as I had to make a round trip to Farmington at the height of the storm. The COOP measured 23.0" on 3.06" LE, while somehow just 6 miles to the east I had 15.5" on 1.80" LE. The snow difference was odd; the LE difference unreal. Since temps were singles to low teens throughout, it wasn't a p-type issue. I see these SWE differences a lot in snowstorms when looking at CoCoRAHS data...usually there's an obvious trend that makes sense with how a storm occurred, but there's usually a few head scratchers. I gotta imagine there's some error involved when talking about taking a core and melting it down, especially large quantities of snow. That COOP reading you mentioned above sounds like a cored dense wind-packed drift, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 That COOP, though done conscientiously (cooperator was then the County Sheriff and well respected) and of very long record - 1893 on - has recorded some occasional oddballs. #1 on my list is Dec 6-7, 2003. New Sharon COOP had 23", I measured 24" (tough measuring, as winds were strong and snow was 15:1 fluff.) Farmington COOP reported 40", 2nd only to Feb 1969's 43" dump. We got to church late that Sunday morning (had to run the snowblower a 2nd time to get the stuff that had flowed over the top on pass #1), but it was only about an hour after accum had finished, and Farmington's 40" looked just like my 24". Of course, there was at least 40" in a drift outside my cellar door... VDay 2007 snow was small flakes and pretty dense considering temps; one doesn't expect ratios in the 7-8 to one range when it's 20F below freezing. Obviously the upper levels weren't very good for dendritic formation, especially compared to points much farther west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 Man that band in CT was pretty sick. Reminds me of the band that moved across eastern NY and VT during Valentines Day 07...its probably true that you need a 3-6"/hr band to get to to 30"+ amounts in most major nor'easters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 4, 2014 Share Posted June 4, 2014 I think I had between 3-4 inches in the hour I got the northern side of that band. You can see how it intensified a bit near ORH. However, the most extreme conditions in that storm definitely came between about 2-4am with the final death band...the snow rates were probably more like 2 inches per hour in that, maybe 3" per hour at the height, but the wind was much fiercer. True blizzard during that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 Man that band in CT was pretty sick. Reminds me of the band that moved across eastern NY and VT during Valentines Day 07...its probably true that you need a 3-6"/hr band to get to to 30"+ amounts in most major nor'easters. The exception would be a long-duration event like late Feb 1969. Even lesser storms, those approaching/exceeding 18", seem to almost always have a period with at least 2-3"/hr rates. Of perhaps 20 such storms I can remember, only 1-2 failed to have such a snowburst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 That radar image is strip tease worthy. You have the deformation band, but you also have that inflow coming in right off the Cape and forming some nice, smooth echoes of SE MA and points NW once we get the air to rise a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 5, 2014 Share Posted June 5, 2014 That radar image is strip tease worthy. You have the deformation band, but you also have that inflow coming in right off the Cape and forming some nice, smooth echoes of SE MA and points NW once we get the air to rise a bit. No dryslot to worry about in that one unless you were on the outer cape/islands. Perfect mid-level center track and oreintation for SNE...having it's max intenficiation occur to the south of MVY/BID. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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