chubbs Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Hires NAM has 12-20" over most of region. Quite the I95 weenie run. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NAMSFC4US_12z/snow60.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Wasn't the first Feb 2010 storm a straight up Miller A? It had a crazy snow gradient due to the confluence that dropped real far south over Maine. PHL had 28" and I bet Reading had far far less than that. The first 2010 storm was an oddball, it went essentially due east. Not only did RDG have much less, but NYC had MUCH MUCH less... and nothing north of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 As far as our place on this little blue marble called earth it looks like a toss up between a ECM/UKIE/GGEM 10-13" MECS and a GFS/NAM 6-8" SECS Storm is too fast moving with the kicker and no blocking we can just about discount a HECS I like the January 1987 analog. Great storm 12" featured lightning http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/02/11/incoming-winter-storm-could-mimic-1987-heavy-snow-event/?tid=pm_pop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 As far as our place on this little blue marble called earth it looks like a toss up between a ECM/UKIE/GGEM 10-13" MECS and a GFS/NAM 6-8" SECS Storm is too fast moving with the kicker and no blocking we can just about discount a HECS I like the January 1987 analog. Great storm 12" featured lightning High building to the north on ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Canadian in a Beast!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The 12z Canadian is also warmer...mix/sleet/zr get as far NW as the southern Lehigh Valley, while Philly and the close suburbs change over to rain for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thedude11 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I feel as though the CMC is always warm... With the storm bombing out I'd doubt the R/S line crosses the Delaware, but that's just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Up to now the GGEM kept the NW burbs and I-95 snow. This is a noticeable but not unexpected change. I was waiting for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Today has been a slow rolling disaster on the models for us with regard to inland track, warmth, pingers and rain. Wow what a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 EURO is no good for the city. Elaborate a bit? Some folks in the MA forum don't see real thrilled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I dont know, i dont mind the Euro where it is right now. And the Euro still gives us snow on the front and back, although nyc really cashes in on the wraparound.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This could be interior Pennsylvania's storm, they are overdue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bilas Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 So one run and it's storm cancel??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 So one run and it's storm cancel??? True but other models are treading toward a slop-fest rather than snow. And it's probably not done yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 This really was a big surge of warmth on the EC compared to previous runs. GEM had a big surge of warmth too compared to previous runs. If 0Z keeps this idea up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It's not cancel just more expansive precipitation in PA wunderground snowmaps have 6-7" in SEPA through hour 57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This really was a big surge of warmth on the EC compared to previous runs. GEM had a big surge of warmth too compared to previous runs. If 0Z keeps this idea up... ...then we're screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This really was a big surge of warmth on the EC compared to previous runs. GEM had a big surge of warmth too compared to previous runs. If 0Z keeps this idea up... what's kind of odd to me is that the track is not that different from the 0z Euro. Definitely something to be wary of, but i'm not willing to jump off the storm just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Unlikely with this bombing out and that track that the 850 line makes it that far inland - continue to think the I95 corridor and either side for 20 miles could have some mixing but the inland spots 20+ miles are looking like a very heavy snow event. I heard someone once say to get the best snows you need to smell the rain. I am growing confident that this will indeed be the biggest snow event of the season for NW Chester County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 dryslots eastern PA 57-63 hours that is ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Unlikely with this bombing out and that track that the 850 line makes it that far inland - continue to think the I95 corridor and either side for 20 miles could have some mixing but the inland spots 20+ miles are looking like a very heavy snow event. I heard someone once say to get the best snows you need to smell the rain. I am growing confident that this will indeed be the biggest snow event of the season for NW Chester County You're in a decent area but for myself once Philly changes to rain...I'm raining within a hour or so more often than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birdbean Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This is a cool feature, the hour by hour snow predictor. http://m.wgal.com/weather/new-check-the-latest-hourbyhour-snow-projections/24411612 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 The problem is that the storm closes off way south. The earlier it closes off the more warm air can get wrapped in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 7-10" total snow in SEPA with wrap back, most everybody including NJ does ok with the first half of storm snows, NYC area seems to do worst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Looking more and more like not a big deal for PHL itself. A few inches followed by sleet, then rain. At least it wouldn't be zr. I'm sure N & W do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 True but other models are treading toward a slop-fest rather than snow. And it's probably not done yet... That's the concern. Not jumping ship on a significant snow event for the NW suburbs of Philly unless 0z models (specifically, Euro/GGEM/UKMET) are even further west and warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Anyway, I still like 6-12" for the Trenton area, not changing that an iota from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 We are really going to have to pray for a major snow thump overnight Wednesday because we are staring at an ugly dryslot where precip shuts off for hours, temps warm and then when precip resumes its light and non-accumulating. 850 track is way too close for us along with the 500 track.......need everything to shift 50-100 miles SE in a hurry.....my guess is we are toast at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Anyway, I still like 6-12" for the Trenton area, not changing that an iota from yesterday. That is a pretty big spread, which I think is indicative of the uncertainty of the track and the closing off of the H-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I guess the question I would ask is how often does it actually verify that lows close off that far south? Does a blend of the Euro and GFS get us to a good place? The problem is that the storm closes off way south. The earlier it closes off the more warm air can get wrapped in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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