Voyager Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Well, the Euro certainly seems to be loving I-81 for this one. Not sure if that'll be the ultimate outcome, though. I guess the 12z suite might be the one to finally hone in on things a bit better. It would be nice to finally build a consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Echo Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Track still too far west for my liking.....need it to slide east 50 miles I concur... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Anyone have a 6z NAM snowfall map? NM found it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thedude11 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The 6z NAM spits out about 1.3" of QPF in KPHL - appears to be all snow according to wxcaster maps. A standard 10:1 ratio puts that around 13" obviously.... However I have not seen much talk about ratios - maybe a bit less than 10:1? Either way we have seen the NAM swing a little bit here and there since last night so I'm sure if the 12z run is anything similar to 6z, then the consensus for a foot in the city is really not out of the realm... Again that's if the NAM is correct, but it looks like the EURO is around 8-12" for the city too. And I think most would agree the EURO has been VERY consistent with this storm for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 sref's have ticked up the total qpf in PHL and are snowier as well. hopefully this is a start to colder trends today for the metro areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fwarder Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I am excited for the storm but based on forecasts it wont be our biggest snowfall this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Could of sworn just heard an Allentown fire dispatcher come across with a weather update saying 10-18 of snow expected but don't see any watches issued for our area. That is what Accuweather is calling for, in the lehigh valley. I work for the state, all state and townships use "skyguard" a commerical accuweather account. I heard the same thing this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastBravest Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 That is what Accuweather is calling for, in the lehigh valley. I work for the state, all state and townships use "skyguard" a commerical accuweather account. I heard the same thing this morning. 10-4 thought they went by NWS but didn't see anything posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 12z nam crushes phl and c nj...far western burbs fringed this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 yup, it went beast-mode again. 8"+ for most of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattMal88 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 New nam is looking good! Doesn't look like too much of a mixing issue either in philly. Will this be the run that the gfs finally comes all the way around? Its been heading that way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I am excited for the storm but based on forecasts it wont be our biggest snowfall this season Possible, we lucked out on some of those big storms because of ratios, however some of the VVs in this storm will be the strongest of the year, so there is a chance someone in our region sees 15-20" which would def top off anything we've seen this year. JMhO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
windvane Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 That is what Accuweather is calling for, in the lehigh valley. I work for the state, all state and townships use "skyguard" a commerical accuweather account. I heard the same thing this morning. We are not in the nws criteria for winter storm watch. Should be by noon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 grabbed these from another forum 48: 51: 54: 57: 60: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 No offense to you guys down there, but another potential Blue Mountain cut-off would be kind of hard to take at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 No offense to you guys down there, but another potential Blue Mountain cut-off would be kind of hard to take at this point. you wana sleep over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 No offense to you guys down there, but another potential Blue Mountain cut-off would be kind of hard to take at this point. I hear you. At this point you have the EURO/CMC/Ukie in your court and until that trends differently I wouldn't worry. I also think the cutoff portrayed on the NAM is overdone. I can't see a Miller A coming up from the gulf without at least a somehwat more expansive precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 you wana sleep over? LOL... Me: Honey I'm staying down in Quakertown tonight so I can see the bigger snow accumulations. Wife: WTF...you some kind crazy nut or what??? I hear you. At this point you have the EURO/CMC/Ukie in your court and until that trends differently I wouldn't worry. I also think the cutoff portrayed on the NAM is overdone. I can't see a Miller A coming up from the gulf without at least a somehwat more expansive precip shield. Yeah maybe. The kicker is the problem I suppose, but I don't ever remember so many storms modeled (and sometimes verifying) with such ridiculous cut-offs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I do. 09-10 had ridiculous cut offs although they were not the same type of storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I do. 09-10 had ridiculous cut offs although they were not the same type of storm. That's what I mean. Over the past few seasons there have been many, but it seems like it was not always that way. Lately there just seems to be some insanely tight gradients on the northwest side of the storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Wasn't the first Feb 2010 storm a straight up Miller A? It had a crazy snow gradient due to the confluence that dropped real far south over Maine. PHL had 28" and I bet Reading had far far less than that. I do. 09-10 had ridiculous cut offs although they were not the same type of storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 12z GFS = precipitation issues Thursday afternoon for most of NJ. NAM = much colder and snowier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 12z GFS = precipitation issues Thursday afternoon for most of NJ. NAM = much colder and snowier. umm precipitation issues for eastern PA as well, only .40-50" QPF here in the southeast. It's the dryest perfect track miller A ever. ECM-NAM are a MECS except for the far N&W crowd on the NAM. GFS stays in SECS criteria. Hope the ECM holds the line today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 How about a thread for the Valentine's Day mini-storm. Could be an interesting setup, weak clipper running into the back-end of the sub 968 mb low. Could be some meso-bands there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 UKMET is east, still about on par with ECM with QPF for SEPA but cuts it down for deeper interior folk and NE PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GGEM is also still on board, I95 N/W. The GFS has a nice low but losses the precip shield. Model is in fail mode at this point with precip as noted by many others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 UKMET is east, still about on par with ECM with QPF for SEPA but cuts it down for deeper interior folk and NE PA GFS remains the biggest outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Ukie crushes us with a beautiful CCB from 60-72. This is easily a foot for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GGEM is also still on board, I95 N/W. The GFS has a nice low but losses the precip shield. Model is in fail mode at this point with precip as noted by many others. As far as our place on this little blue marble called earth it looks like a toss up between a ECM/UKIE/GGEM 10-13" MECS and a GFS/NAM 6-8" SECS Storm is too fast moving with the kicker and no blocking we can just about discount a HECS I like the January 1987 analog. Great storm 12" featured lightning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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