JCT777 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 18z runs for a storm more than 48 hours out = don't put a lot of stock in them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 ECM ensembles lock step in line with the OP. I see that the vort responsible for this storm is currently crashing into the pacific northwest. I am guessing full sampling not incorporated untill 0z or 12z tomorrow? *** not even sure if that vort is associated with this storm or is the kicker hard to keep track, accuweather mentioned this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattMal88 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 There have been a few instances where the nam has locked on a solution and it was actually correct so here's to hoping this is one of those times. That map sure is pretty to look at if nothing else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 surprised GFS is still so dry for the area....almost every other model in the book says otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Well, for one, what happens aloft has NOTHING to do with the surface snow-pack, temp wise. There was a 1996 event I'll never forget: Jim Cantore spent the morning saying that the high snow pack in the wake of the Blizzard of 96 would prevent a changeover in Philly. Philly ended up changing to rain after just a couple inches. The heavy snow was near Harrisburg. LOL. I remember Cantore saying that too. It was later that same week as the blizzard (maybe the first Thursday or Friday after the storm).... and I totally bought into what Cantore was peddling. It was darn depressing how quickly we changed over, too. Point being, of course, if Mother Nature decides "no snow for you!", then, you ain't getting snow no matter how deep the snowpack is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 mount holly weather briefing package is out - http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Did someone nuke Philly or something. No posts since 6:26PM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Did someone nuke Philly or something. No posts since 6:26PM? LOL, well it's in-between model runs and there have also been some forum issues - I keep getting that error message. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The Radio show is also on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Did someone nuke Philly or something. No posts since 6:26PM? I think all the weenies are running out of gas/need sleep....site has been a bit unstable as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 massive freezing rain / sleet storm in northern and central georgia... at around 42 hours. (0z NAM - 10m temps) western south carolina too...but better chance of heavy snow there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bakery Boy Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Is anyone able to post a link to the 0z Nam or give a brief synopsis on SE PA and SW NJ? Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 While my technical knowledge is limited, based on observation and the general (apparent) consensus that the Euro handles southern stream systems better, along with it's relative consistency so far with this potential storm, I'm inclined to take the GFS with a grain of salt for the time being. An 18z NAM like solution verifying would be awesome, but right now the Euro has the best handle on this event, imo. I'd love to see the track move a bit (more) offshore at and north of OBX, because my biggest concern (for those near or east of 95) is warm air/rain, and as we get closer the track may tend to tick NW/West anyway. Therefore I'd like to see it a little farther east than what the Euro shows right now. I don't think we're going to get "grazed" by this one either way. That's my 2 cents (for now) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Dave busting TWC...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Is anyone able to post a link to the 0z Nam or give a brief synopsis on SE PA and SW NJ? Thanks in advance. https://weather.unisys.com/nam/pres.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 0Z NAM is east. Qpf from what I can see would mirror GFS and western extent doesn't reach far beyond I-95 Bust potential is high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Even along I-95, NAM thermals are very borderline. Low ratio snow at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 0Z NAM is east. Qpf from what I can see would mirror GFS and western extent doesn't reach far beyond I-95 Bust potential is high ??? We're sitting fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I haven't looked at total qpf, but it is FAR lower than 18Z. Like not even close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thedude11 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yea the 0z is a less.... but was 2" of liquid moisture shown on the 18z NAM (for KPHL) really a high possibility? No need to really nit-pick this heavily from run to run, but wow the GFS and EURO runs tonight will be very telling. There's a lot of features going on so (last minute) shifts in either direction between now and tomorrow are quite likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yep. I think we need till this time tomorrow to lock it in. Meanwhile.....it is downright chilly and damp here in Houston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Yea the 0z is a less.... but was 2" of liquid moisture shown on the 18z NAM (for KPHL) really a high possibility? No need to really nit-pick this heavily from run to run, but wow the GFS and EURO runs tonight will be very telling. There's a lot of features going on so (last minute) shifts in either direction between now and tomorrow are quite likely. True. If they both back off, I'll get a little concerned but still two days till the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 .6 QPF at DYL on the 0z GFS. Great trends aloft and at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GFS finally shows some wet Far from ECM but .50-.60" QPF in SEPA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thedude11 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 UKMET is a 981 bomb off the NJ coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 UKMET track is a concern with a tight coastal hugger, changes over south and east of quakertown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GFS finally shows some wet Far from ECM but .50-.60" QPF in SEPA Which is still a nice thump plus the snow we have already. Snow on top of snow on top of snow...reminds me of the late 70's when winter was "winter" and you rarely seen grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 UKMET track is a concern with a tight coastal hugger, changes over south and east of Quakertown No thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Which is still a nice thump plus the snow we have already. Snow on top of snow on top of snow...reminds me of the late 70's when winter was "winter" and you rarely seen grass. Also of interest is kicker following along behind big storm like a little sun stuck in the gravity of a super giant and keeps it snowing on friday. Then the clipper 24 hours later. Days and days of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Which is still a nice thump plus the snow we have already. Snow on top of snow on top of snow...reminds me of the late 70's when winter was "winter" and you rarely seen grass. Nice bump west. Must speculate the NAM was just the NAM. Overall all signals point to a big ticket storm. Who gets crushed is TBD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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