Voyager Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Not sure about all cases, but in this scenario Earthlight was saying that the northern stream kicker is the cause. Anyone have any idea why we seem to see so many more of these razor sharp precipitation gradients over the past few years? That low looks like it should be in a great position to spread heavy snow back into Central PA but it shows almost nothing from Harriburg west. That can change, of course, but just curious why that seems to be the trend. Which, to answer your question, has seemed to have been present during many of these potential set-ups over the past few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 so far so good. bowling ball at 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 need to keep the kicker weak. gfs 12z has improvements. ukie dumps major snows dc to boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 GFS track now is only about 50 miles east of where the ECM ensembles had the storm track. Ensemble means would be right where we want it but after being burned so many times with western gradient i am nervous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Ukmet is a beast as andy alluded to. Classic obx to bm track (~984mb). Nice suite so far. Cmon ggem! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 from twit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 GGEM is a big hit for Philly & burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 yup, sounds like GGEM and UKIE are the big hitters. Euro next... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Euro has been most consistent...I see no major changes coming this run imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 incase you didnt see the ggem maps, heavy snow rates. i guess twit and FB will explode today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 incase you didnt see the ggem maps, heavy snow rates. i guess twit and FB will explode today. There's quite a bit of mixing and given that kind of track it isn't surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It is bothering me a lot, but a lot of the big hit models give us most of our heavy snow from WAA, and not the CCB as the 500mb low passes. Not sure why they are doing this/. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Offtopic I must say this thread is very informative and too the point. Its like the cliffnotes version of NY metro's thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Without a cold high in place as the storm center gets closer the WAA is too strong. That's why the NAM solution is so much potentially better--the kicker sends the system out stage right before the WAA overwhelms the temperatures at or near the surface, limiting mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Keep in mind it's only Monday noon, many hours many runs before anything is lock n load. Don't get sucked into every run. Emotional model roller-coaster looming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 12Z Euro has nice storm but precip. issues for the area with rain/snow line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 My early early call for the Trenton area is 6-12. So it'll either be 12+, or less than 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 ECM a big dog and steady as a rock in it's track. Snow maps look like 16" in SEPA and 20" out towards Harrisburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Anyone have qpf numbers for ABE and RDG? I got them for MDT and AVP over in the central thread, but I'm trying to "triangulate" the qpf numbers from the major reporting stations to come up with a rough estimate for Tamaqua. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Redsky, the euro to me doesn't look that good for Philly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 ECM a big dog and steady as a rock in it's track. Snow maps look like 16" in SEPA and 20" out towards Harrisburg Those WxBell maps just suck. I guestimated 8" at TTN, there's so much warm air and mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Those WxBell maps just suck. For TTN I guestimated 8" at TTN, there's so much warm air and mixing. Yea, no way Philly got that much on the EURO, on stormvista it has Philly in the 4-6" range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Big gradient S&E of I95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Philly riding the snow/mix line, N&W burbs get crushed Allentown sitting pretty this run ...long way to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 15-20" of snow for the Lehigh Valley on the Euro. And this is less than 72 hours away from starting...wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 ECM a big dog and steady as a rock in it's track. Snow maps look like 16" in SEPA and 20" out towards HarrisburgBig ticket event. Mt Holly forecast area will get snow. Some folks may hit the 12 to 15 plus range Looking good for Philly to pad the snow totals again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 15-20" of snow for the Lehigh Valley on the Euro. And this is less than 72 hours away from starting...wow. 1.44" liquid. I wouldn't bank on good ratios in this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 ABE scores! As you get closer to I95 rain / snow factors in. Still an A+ Euro run. The Euro seems locked into this storm. It looks nice on the SV Maps. Plenty of time to work out the rain/snow line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWeatherAdventure Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Anyone have qpf numbers for ABE and RDG? I got them for MDT and AVP over in the central thread, but I'm trying to "triangulate" the qpf numbers from the major reporting stations to come up with a rough estimate for Tamaqua.ABE: 1.44"RDG: 1.59" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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