RedSky Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 988mb over the delmarva, win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Redsky do you have a snow map just for fun....? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 0z ECM won't dissapoint anyone this run it's big and cold If you like cold rain. EDIT scratch, it does have a very nice front end thump 0f 8-15" then mix rain back to snow. Very amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Redsky do you have a snow map just for fun....? Around 12" SEPA, kinda dryslots us yet we also get the heaviest banding first part of storm. Storm is close to the coast like to see it slightly east to avoid dry slotting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Fwiw the 6z nam is a bigtime hit with much more to come post 84 hrs (looks like the big ggem hit from 12z yesterday). The 6z gfs caved and went towards the euro....much closer to the coast and close to a big hit. And for kicks and giggles the cras model is in the gfs camp attm...getting closer. Looking good so far....steady as she goes.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Euro buries the LV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Great Scott! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The 6Z NAM actually warms the 850s above freezing along I-95. But, then again, it is the NAM at 84, so not really worth much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 NWS stressed this is only through 7am Thursday and it could be an 18 hr event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
svh19044 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I haven't seen it this bullish for a while, but the WPC Probabilistic Pricip. map has all of eastern PA in the 95th percentile 6-8" range out to 12z Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teflon Beamer Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'm sorry but with the HP moving to the east those totals just seem high to me in regards to my location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Not one post here and the 84 hour NAM crashes the server lol NAM is a BECS in Georgia and Carolinas. MECS + up here depending what happens post 84hr 2" cripples Atlanta what happens with 18" Hey sorry to dumb the thread, but what is a BECS. I do know what HECS, MECS, and SECS are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
windvane Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Hey sorry to dumb the thread, but what is a BECS. I do know what HECS, MECS, and SECS are. Biblical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Weather Briefing Package today? Looks like a coastal flooding track. (ECM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 NAM's already lookin beast-mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The NAM at 72 is honking big time, but it's the NAM @72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Its extended nam but this is looking nice at this point. so many more runs to go with various models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 We all know Philly is going to jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Its extended nam but this is looking nice at this point. so many more runs to go with various models. Plus, models don't precisely get low level cold accurate until 24 to 36 hours before a storm. The snow cover will help. I can't see temps getting above freezing so quickly, without a big warm push. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Very sharp cutoff in the precip from 2 inches of liquid to virtually nothing. \ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Very sharp cutoff in the precip from 2 inches of liquid to virtually nothing. \ way to early to be locking in the precip cutoffs. interesting to look at but this will change many times. key is, game still on for a nice storm potential. gfs up next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It is the nam at the tail end of its range, but impressive none-the-less. Nam at 81: Nam at 84: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It is the nam at the tail end of its range, but impressive none-the-less. Nam at 81: Nam at 84: yea, but the surface temps blowtorch for some reason : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The nam at that range is pretty hit or miss, but surface maps at that range are even more. If the low is in that position it will draw down enough cold air where it will still snow, possible even to the coast. TTN should be fine though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 yea, but the surface temps blowtorch for some reason : 33-35f is hardly a torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 yea, but the surface temps blowtorch for some reason : big easterly component to the winds b/c of the departing HP to the northeast. also we have a southwesterly component feeding in from the west b/c of the circulation around the great lakes low. This storm has a lot of components to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 33-35f is hardly a torch 100% agree. Dont forget snowpack, which models hardly pick up on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 With those VVs the surface could be above freezing, it will cool inside of the heavier bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yak Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Very sharp cutoff in the precip from 2 inches of liquid to virtually nothing. \ Anyone have any idea why we seem to see so many more of these razor sharp precipitation gradients over the past few years? That low looks like it should be in a great position to spread heavy snow back into Central PA but it shows almost nothing from Harriburg west. That can change, of course, but just curious why that seems to be the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Not sure about all cases, but in this scenario Earthlight was saying that the northern stream kicker is the cause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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