RedSky Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Real good SEPA hit on the ECM 8-10", curiously a bit low on qpf for a perfect track miller A but long way to go to iron out the details Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Nice trends all around today. The strengthening of the low really helps improve the dynamics for a mainly or all snow on today's runs away from the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Dr. No says yes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Real good SEPA hit on the ECM 8-10", curiously a bit low on qpf for a perfect track miller A but long way to go to iron out the details GEM qpf is similar. Could improve a bit with time assuming this type of solution holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I wouldn't sweat QPF at this point, models have consistently expanded precip shield and increased QPF within 48 hours. With that track, that would easily be a MECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I'll chime in here on this run. Really good track. Looking at the upper levels, really like that the 850mb low tracks off to our east. Even the 700mb level, looks really good. This looks to be a high impact event. No need to get into specific snow totals, but just focusing on the track. Still, looks like significant snow threat possible for Wednesday night into Thursday. Hmmm. maybe no jury duty in Camden for me on Thursday. Maybe they'll say, okay folks, your all excused and see you in 3 years. Anyway, definitely an interesting week for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 9, 2014 Author Share Posted February 9, 2014 Lovely slop-fest on the EC, lucky to get 10:1 ratios out of it along I-95. Probably not as sloppy as last Monday, but its very warm from 800 to the surface. Of course it'll still change another 10 times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 From the NY forum - Euro ensemble mean looks as good or better than the operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 From the NY forum - Euro ensemble mean looks as good or better than the operational. They are. Sub-1000 mb just inside the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Lovely slop-fest on the EC, lucky to get 10:1 ratios out of it along I-95. Probably not as sloppy as last Monday, but its very warm from 800 to the surface. Of course it'll still change another 10 times. Last weeks snow has formed somewhat of a glacier, more wet snow followed by more cold temps could mean we may keep an icepack for a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Not one post here and the 84 hour NAM crashes the server lol NAM is a BECS in Georgia and Carolinas. MECS + up here depending what happens post 84hr 2" cripples Atlanta what happens with 18" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 if 84hr nam scores i'm knocking on your door Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 if 84hr nam scores i'm knocking on your door I will be building my prepper shelter in my biblical snowpile on Thusday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It amazes me that just a day or two ago, we were watching a positively tilted southern stream shortwave sliding off the coast, and now we're looking at the trough closing off with h500 and h300 dynamics very supportive of great lift. That shortwave in the upper plains still makes me nervous, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 waiting for someone to say "it's the NAM....what do you expect" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 Not that I buy the NAM at 84 (does anyone, really?), but its mainly sleet and freezing rain at TTN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 waiting for someone to say "it's the NAM....what do you expect" It's the NAM beyond 60 hours...it's exactly what I expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 GFS initialized. drum roll... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Not one post here and the 84 hour NAM crashes the server lol NAM is a BECS in Georgia and Carolinas. MECS + up here depending what happens post 84hr 2" cripples Atlanta what happens with 18" Shanty towns would be set up along the highway. Local government would break down. The national guard would be overrun by panicked Georgians.... Schools would be shut down for over a week. But yeah, I doubt that the NAM and EURO's snowfall output for down there pans out, just speaking from a climo standpoint. I could see 10"+ happening though. It would be quite a sight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Not that I buy the NAM at 84 (does anyone, really?), but its mainly sleet and freezing rain at TTN. I say about 4 of snow and .6 of IP/ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Not that I buy the NAM at 84 (does anyone, really?), but its mainly sleet and freezing rain at TTN.all the big storms seem to have this feature with a definitive line somewhere around i95. I agree about the ip and fzra but might add snow areas just to the west of this feature under the ccb get hammered in these setups, Ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 I say about 4 of snow and .6 of IP/ZR. Less, its changing to sleet after less than 0.3" liquid falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 all the big storms seem to have this feature with a definitive line somewhere around i95. I agree about the ip and fzra but might add snow areas just to the west of this feature under the ccb get hammered in these setups, Ray. My point is two fold 1 - Its the NAM at 84. Not to be trusted. 2 - Even if you trust it, its not showing quite what you want it to, unless your name is Rib. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Just woke up, as I go into work at midnight. Multiple people asked me If this is true. Hype machine started already.. Smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 Just woke up, as I go into work at midnight. Multiple people asked me If this is true. Hype machine started already.. Smh Does the idiot running that site even know what the March 93 blizzard was like? I mean, that's nowhere NEAR the 93 blizzards westward extent. 1 foot plus snows fell all the way into Ohio and down to Alabama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 GFS obviously didn't get an invite to the big storm party. sad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 GFS obviously didn't get an invite to the big storm party. sadI would much rather have the other globals west with the gfs east at this point. We need the ukie, ggem, and euro to remain on board. I'm more concerned with mixing at this point :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Ggem and ukie are hits so far! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I cant imagine the EURO OP amd ENS backing down. If they do, big loss for the EURO. Although, there should atleast 1 "off" run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 0z ECM won't dissapoint anyone this run it's big and cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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