famartin Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 GFS is down to 6" for TTN. No forecast changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue sky Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 They bumped me from 6-8 to 8-10 because they know 2 inches would fall as sleet. Crap, this a storm discussion thread. That squall line in Florida is one of the most impressive I've ever seen in a "winter storm." Yes! I posted else were that a line of thunderstorms is going to hit Cuba. Not saying this 93 but a line hit Cuba back than. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 So from what I'm seeing monmouth county in nj is just gonna see 3-6" then rain? How bout the back snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 So from what I'm seeing monmouth county in nj is just gonna see 3-6" then rain? How bout the back snow? Depends how quickly the comma head develops, and how quickly the thicknesses crash on the back end. northern Monmouth right now is a coin flip for more snow after the change to rain/dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Going with 10"-14" in DYLthank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEchestercountydude Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm really confident that this storm is going to dump a lot of snow on us. My one worry is more in the rgem camp, in that we possibly mix for a larger part of the storm. The gfs being dry means almost nothing to me. It has been a joke with this storm. All the models in general have been too dry with storms this year. Just my two cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 it's a warm layer causing a lot of sleet and maybe zr not s.kipping. it seems odd, but i guess it is in play That's one heck of a warm layer, since it shows no location in the state of Pennsylvania getting more than 10 inches of snow, while DC gets more than a foot and most of southeast NY state does also. Anyway, it's the 18z RGEM. We all know that yesterday it showed a 980 MB low just east of Baltimore at hr 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 So from what I'm seeing monmouth county in nj is just gonna see 3-6" then rain? How bout the back snow? Glenn just now: "A lot of intensity on the back end of this storm" I'll take an additional 1-3/2-4 type thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 That's one heck of a warm layer, since it shows no location in the state of Pennsylvania getting more than 10 inches of snow, while DC gets more than a foot and most of southeast NY state does also. Anyway, it's the 18z RGEM. We all know that yesterday it showed a 980 MB low just east of Baltimore at hr 54. i like using the RGEM this close to the storm, so i dont discount it....but it does seem a little extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 When do the next euro models run?? They run 12Z and 0Z. That's 7AM and 7PM. Now, that's not when they actually start, that's when the data ingest happens, more or less (there is some data ingested over time but the general idea is that its around 12Z and 0Z). I imagine it starts to actually "run" a few hours later, but we don't start getting output until nearly 6 hours later. So, the next Euro data will start coming in around 1AM Eastern time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 That squall line in Florida is one of the most impressive I've ever seen in a "winter storm." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Does anybody have any reports from Florida? I am not saying the above is a repeat of March 93, but it is pretty darn intense for winter. I am wondering if they had a "storm surge" ahead of this like they did in '93. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Does anybody have any reports from Florida? I am not saying the above is a repeat of March 93, but it is pretty darn intense for winter. I am wondering if they had a "storm surge" ahead of this like they did in '93. 546 PM EST WED FEB 12 2014 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EST FOR SOUTHWESTERN HARDEE AND NORTHWESTERN DESOTO COUNTIES... AT 546 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO DETECT A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED 10 MILES WEST OF LIMESTONE...OR 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF ARCADIA...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... LIMESTONE BY 555 PM EST... Also, just noticed a report of 1" hail.....and another report of 2 inches of rain in 15 minutes from the same line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I am still finding it hard to believe that, after the kind of winter the immediate PHL area has had so far this season, a storm like this will hugely underperform in the exact same area relative to the rest of the I-95 corridor (both north and south). I realize that this outcome is looking more and more likely by the minute, and I totally understand the meteorology behind it... I am just having a hard time swallowing it. I suspect that I am going to have to see those first reports of pings being heard before I fully accept it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Also, just noticed a report of 1" hail.....and another report of 2 inches of rain in 15 minutes . Yikes! That is, indeed, intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 I am still finding it hard to believe that, after the kind of winter the immediate PHL area has had so far this season, a storm like this will hugely underperform in the exact same area relative to the rest of the I-95 corridor (both north and south). I realize that this outcome is looking more and more likely by the minute, and I totally understand the meteorology behind it... I am just having a hard time swallowing it. I suspect that I am going to have to see those first reports of pings being heard before I fully accept it. 6-9" is underperforming? Let the NW suburbs have their day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 6-9" is underperforming? Let the NW suburbs have their day I just meant relative to DC and NYC. ...but, yes, it is most definitely a measure of the kind of (amazing) winter it has been at PHL that anybody... in any context... can use the word "underperform" while describing a likely 6"+ snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I just meant relative to DC and NYC. ...but, yes, it is most definitely a measure of the kind of (amazing) winter it has been at PHL that anybody... in any context... can use the word "underperform" while describing a likely 6"+ snow event. Patterns repeat...until they don't. It's kind of like saying "It's been red the last ten spins, I can't believe the next one isn't going to come up black." Actually, I think it is the opposite of saying that. But you get the point, things are shifting. The PAC Jet is alive, we aren't dealing with the Arctic airmasses that have dominated for six weeks. It's a whole new ball game with diffluence in Canada, a surface low in the Lakes, and a tighter coastal track. Believe it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I really do hope KPHL sets an all time record 4th 6+ inch snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I really do hope KPHL sets an all time record 4th 6+ inch snow event. I don't see how this won't happen. Unless it switches to sleet super fast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 I don't see how this won't happen. Unless it switches to sleet super fast... PHL can get screwed if it changes to sleet very fast and then the deformation zone either doesn't develop well or misses them to one side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
svh19044 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 How is sleet counted towards snowfall? I think it's supported that they will hit a 6" storm in the next 24-30 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 How is sleet counted towards snowfall? I think they will hit a 6" storm in the next 24-30 hours. I think it counts as snow...not positive though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Ray do you have an eta for change over...Lower Bucks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 Ray do you have an eta for change over...Lower Bucks? Late morning I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 How is sleet counted towards snowfall? As if it was exactly the same. However, keep in mind sleet:water ratios are MUCH lower than snow:water ratios. Typically on the order of 2:1 to 3:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 As if it was exactly the same. However, keep in mind sleet:water ratios are MUCH lower than snow:water ratios. Typically on the order of 2:1 to 3:1. As if it was exactly the same. However, keep in mind sleet:water ratios are MUCH lower than snow:water ratios. Typically on the order of 2:1 to 3:1. How about hail if for some strange reason we picked up 1/2" sometime during winter...still same as snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 How about hail if for some strange reason we pick up 1/2"...still same as snow? Yeah, but that's so rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 How about hail if for some strange reason we picked up 1/2" sometime during winter...still same as snow? Yes, and also if a snowicane picked up tropical birds and deposited them. You can pick up a quick 4 inches that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I don't like the 925 freezing line pinching Philly at 12z on the HRRR that screams a sleet changeover before the heavy stuff is through the area, it is possible maybe heavy rates could overcome it (the 12z RGEM kind of showed that for 1-2 hours)...We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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