Quakertown needs snow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 nice euro run for se/ne pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 Euro has 10-11" at TTN. That makes me a little nervous but I'll keep 6-12", leaning towards the high end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Tried deciphering from the NY thread, but thats never easy. Anyone know how the Euro did for this area(Mercer county south and west down to PHL)? EDIT: Ray just beat me to it. Good timing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 Euro has 10-11" at TTN. That makes me a little nervous but I'll keep 6-12", leaning towards the high end. Breakdown: 4-7 in the morning, then ice/rain, then 2-5 more at night. If either of those fall outside the range, I could bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 This is for Philly... looks like about 0.4" qpf as snow then the temps go up up too high.. or do you count the periods when the 850s are < 0 but the surface is a bit above zero as potentially accumulating snow as well? Because that would be another 0.5" qpf... ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: PHL LAT= 39.88 LON= -75.25 ELE= 30 12Z FEB12 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THKWED 12Z 12-FEB -16.1 -9.5 1035 77 2 0.00 552 526 WED 18Z 12-FEB -4.6 -7.4 1033 52 2 0.00 554 528 THU 00Z 13-FEB -5.2 -6.5 1029 79 14 0.00 555 532 THU 06Z 13-FEB -4.7 -4.6 1024 88 98 0.05 553 535 THU 12Z 13-FEB -1.5 -1.6 1015 94 96 0.34 552 540 THU 18Z 13-FEB 0.6 1.0 1003 93 95 0.37 548 546 FRI 00Z 14-FEB 1.6 2.0 991 93 99 0.43 538 546 FRI 06Z 14-FEB 0.7 -5.7 988 90 75 0.34 526 535 FRI 12Z 14-FEB 1.0 -3.8 995 81 69 0.21 529 534 FRI 18Z 14-FEB 4.4 -3.9 1000 54 16 0.00 534 534 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 ECM snowmaps - about 8-10" philly, 11-12" n&w burbs, 13-15" allentown lehigh valley get best of CCB 6-7" south jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 ECM snowmaps - about 8-10" philly, 11-12" n&w burbs, 13-15" allentown lehigh valley get best of CCB 6-7" south jersey Looks good. In fact, all modeling currently looks very nice for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeminoleSullivan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 What's the old "Whetherman" statement from The Phantom Tollbooth? "Tis better to know whether there will be weather than what the weather will be?" Yell at me if you'd like, but I think CTP has handled this storm remarkably well. I think 10" is going to be the mean snowfall for a good portion of the CWA with dribs and drabs of 12s and 14s. Do remember folks: If you're telling your spouse/coworker/neighbor about this, and at the end they go out and jam a ruler in the snow, You'll hear: HEY YOU SAID WE'D GET A FOOT! I ONLY SEE 9" Truth is, 13" could have fallen, but this is the gloppy stuff that our lower back's nightmares are made of. Clean the snowboards often. I'm curious to see how it turns out for the potential mixers out east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bilas Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Looks good. In fact, all modeling currently looks very nice for our area. For your area maybe but not this area...looks like a lot of slop here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 For your area maybe but not this area...looks like a lot of slop here. True. Hope it ends up better for you than just some slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 What's the old "Whetherman" statement from The Phantom Tollbooth? "Tis better to know whether there will be weather than what the weather will be?" Yell at me if you'd like, but I think CTP has handled this storm remarkably well. I think 10" is going to be the mean snowfall for a good portion of the CWA with dribs and drabs of 12s and 14s. Do remember folks: If you're telling your spouse/coworker/neighbor about this, and at the end they go out and jam a ruler in the snow, You'll hear: HEY YOU SAID WE'D GET A FOOT! I ONLY SEE 9" Truth is, 13" could have fallen, but this is the gloppy stuff that our lower back's nightmares are made of. Clean the snowboards often. I'm curious to see how it turns out for the potential mixers out east. Not to mention some measuring old snow "hey i got 20!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 ECM snowmaps - about 8-10" philly, 11-12" n&w burbs, 13-15" allentown lehigh valley get best of CCB 6-7" south jersey Right -- but it looks like not all of that is snow. Those snow maps include sleet too, right? In this case it looks like Philly is getting a good bit of sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 This is for Philly... looks like about 0.4" qpf as snow then the temps go up up too high.. or do you count the periods when the 850s are < 0 but the surface is a bit above zero as potentially accumulating snow as well? Because that would be another 0.5" qpf... ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: PHL LAT= 39.88 LON= -75.25 ELE= 30 12Z FEB12 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK WED 12Z 12-FEB -16.1 -9.5 1035 77 2 0.00 552 526 WED 18Z 12-FEB -4.6 -7.4 1033 52 2 0.00 554 528 THU 00Z 13-FEB -5.2 -6.5 1029 79 14 0.00 555 532 THU 06Z 13-FEB -4.7 -4.6 1024 88 98 0.05 553 535 THU 12Z 13-FEB -1.5 -1.6 1015 94 96 0.34 552 540 THU 18Z 13-FEB 0.6 1.0 1003 93 95 0.37 548 546 FRI 00Z 14-FEB 1.6 2.0 991 93 99 0.43 538 546 FRI 06Z 14-FEB 0.7 -5.7 988 90 75 0.34 526 535 FRI 12Z 14-FEB 1.0 -3.8 995 81 69 0.21 529 534 FRI 18Z 14-FEB 4.4 -3.9 1000 54 16 0.00 534 534 IMO 6z-12z Friday is a snow sounding, especially at the rate it will be falling if Euro is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 ECM snowmaps - about 8-10" philly, 11-12" n&w burbs, 13-15" allentown lehigh valley get best of CCB 6-7" south jersey sorry for the imby, but what's it showing for cape may/Sussex co de? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 That last .55" would absolutely be snow with 850s below zero....the SFC is barely above freezing.....snow unless some other levels there are above freezing as well. This is for Philly... looks like about 0.4" qpf as snow then the temps go up up too high.. or do you count the periods when the 850s are < 0 but the surface is a bit above zero as potentially accumulating snow as well? Because that would be another 0.5" qpf... ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: PHL LAT= 39.88 LON= -75.25 ELE= 30 12Z FEB12 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THKWED 12Z 12-FEB -16.1 -9.5 1035 77 2 0.00 552 526 WED 18Z 12-FEB -4.6 -7.4 1033 52 2 0.00 554 528 THU 00Z 13-FEB -5.2 -6.5 1029 79 14 0.00 555 532 THU 06Z 13-FEB -4.7 -4.6 1024 88 98 0.05 553 535 THU 12Z 13-FEB -1.5 -1.6 1015 94 96 0.34 552 540 THU 18Z 13-FEB 0.6 1.0 1003 93 95 0.37 548 546 FRI 00Z 14-FEB 1.6 2.0 991 93 99 0.43 538 546 FRI 06Z 14-FEB 0.7 -5.7 988 90 75 0.34 526 535 FRI 12Z 14-FEB 1.0 -3.8 995 81 69 0.21 529 534 FRI 18Z 14-FEB 4.4 -3.9 1000 54 16 0.00 534 534 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 http://models.weatherbell.com/news/wrf_2014021212_ref_nmm_east.gif weenie radar! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 Clean the snowboards often. I'm curious to see how it turns out for the potential mixers out east. You might want to review the "new" snow measurement guide http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41853-new-nws-snow-measurement-guide/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEchestercountydude Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 http://models.weatherbell.com/news/wrf_2014021212_ref_nmm_east.gif weenie radar! Yeah the NMM is what could happen with this storm if everything breaks right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 sorry for the imby, but what's it showing for cape may/Sussex co de? 3" or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Right -- but it looks like not all of that is snow. Those snow maps include sleet too, right? In this case it looks like Philly is getting a good bit of sleet? Don't think too much sleet, after the thump of snow a bit of dryslot light rain to snow with backend of CCB But you never know because that is "sleet country" as Rob says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 This would be perfection.....like an hour or two of mix and dry slot and then raging snow again. Yeah the NMM is what could happen with this storm if everything breaks right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 3" or sothanks, appreciate it... Wonder if we get any on the back end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I know it is a weenie radar, but it is still hard to believe that a radar like that is not going to result in a 12"+ for the entire Philly area. Then again, it is a measure of the kind of year the area is having when we get disappointed that a storm is ONLY looking like it will give us 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Going with 10"-14" in DYL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEDOG27 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Don't think too much sleet, after the thump of snow a bit of dryslot light rain to snow with backend of CCB But you never know because that is "sleet country" as Rob says This might sound like a dumb question and I know what it really "Means", but whats the true term for CCB? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 This might sound like a dumb question and I know what it really "Means", but whats the true term for CCB? Thanks http://www.cimms.ou.edu/~schultz/ccb/ccb.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEDOG27 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 http://www.cimms.ou.edu/~schultz/ccb/ccb.shtml thank you. great info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pohopoco Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Looks like the real juice for this storm is just starting to kick in the GOM...Nice plume of moisture blossoming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 I know it is a weenie radar, but it is still hard to believe that a radar like that is not going to result in a 12"+ for the entire Philly area. If it wasn't for the warm interlude, it would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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