NEchestercountydude Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Gfs is warmer and farther w....rgem is by itself. I liked the look of it. Starts to warm at hour 27 after a nice ( not as large as the nam and rgem) but not bad. The CCB also looks pretty decent on it as it starts to form over us hr 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Gfs is warmer and farther w....rgem is by itself. Here we go again, warmer west AND drier front end ccb hitting north and east of here this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Don't like this GFS/NAM combo of skipping SEPA with QPF maxes SW and NE, ECM don't fail us now Could see the scenario where we have light to moderate for hours waiting for the good snows with big reports by baltimore, get 5" then lightens to a mist with dry slot and ccb forms too far north and east and back ends us with 1-2"-that is my nightmare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 When a NAM clown map doesn't show double digit snowfall within a 100 miles of PHL, it is definitely time to temper expectations. Just the same, given how often PHL has found a way to bullseye just about every time it snows this winter it is hard to accept that this one just might be a normal, run-of-the-mill, Philadelphia snowstorm with a few inch thump up front, some slop and rain in the middle, and a few flakes at the end. i think philly flips but I'm still thinking that models are overdoing the warming at the surface...i think the flip is to sleet or freezing rain, not plain rain. to be fair, i think we have a pretty good chance of more than a few flakes at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Looking the rgem more closely....its not so hot with the 850 low over delmarva....that's a recipe for rain in phl and nearby burbs. On stormvista this run of the GFS gave Philly more snow than any of its previous runs for this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEchestercountydude Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm still learning, but this is a pretty sweet CCB no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 1.20 One mm is .04 so multiply that by 30 or to make it easier 25mm=1inch works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Why Is it the nam clown maps show 6-8 but from reading the ny forum they are claiming it shows 12-16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Why Is it the nam clown maps show 6-8 but from reading the ny forum they are claiming it shows 12-16 snow goggles get a pair Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The CCB / wrap-around for this storm is starting to look more and more like the Feb 25-26 event in 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The CCB / wrap-around for this storm is starting to look more and more like the Feb 25-26 event in 2010. Put me down!, stood in an open farm field nearby with 50mph winds and whiteout blizzard conditions 11" snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 GFS has about 9" at TTN. Still no reason for me to alter 6-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Put me down!, stood in an open farm field nearby with 50mph winds and whiteout blizzard conditions 11" snow That was pretty incredible. Looks to me like this will be a less windy and not quite as snowy version, but all models are showing it as at least a couple inches of snow, with potential for quite a bit more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Is the precip from the ccb all snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Is the precip from the ccb all snow? No, the issue for Philly is the duration. The CCB moisture would probably be rain/sleet mix to start, while the column cools. So N/NW Burbs probably do a lot better with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Is the precip from the ccb all snow? Most of it should it be, if the precip is as heavy as it is being depicted on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GFS has about 9" at TTN. Still no reason for me to alter 6-12" I am curious Ray what GFS has for both allentown and philly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 I am curious Ray what GFS has for both allentown and philly? About 6" at PHL and about 9" at ABE. At ABE the main problem is lack of precip from the front end thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEchestercountydude Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I know that's the weenie radar but man, what a beauty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 About 6" at PHL and about 9" at ABE. At ABE the main problem is lack of precip from the front end thump. 6-12" feels like a good call for most of SEPA - 6-8" GFS/NAM vs 10-12" ECM/UKIE/GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I cant confirm it, but based on what I see on the UKMET upper levels it would probably have pretty epic CCB banding over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 6-12" feels like a good call for most of SEPA - 6-8" GFS/NAM vs 10-12" ECM/UKIE/GGEM Ya know, the 0Z GGEM doesn't actually have all that much... maybe 6-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GFS slower and deeper for the last 3 runs straight. 'stall out' potential ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GFS slower and deeper for the last 3 runs straight. 'stall out' potential ? Not during the dry slot I hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 About 6" at PHL and about 9" at ABE. At ABE the main problem is lack of precip from the front end thump. And that's what's weird. I thought most of the guidance had the front-end thump as an equal opportunity event. To see the GFS pull it away from E PA is annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dabiggiu Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 12z GGEM loop. Much colder for us down south and awesome CCB!! http://www.meteo.psu...2z/cmcloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 the f24 panel on there is driving rain....surface and 850 well west of PHL 12z GGEM loop. Much colder for us down south and awesome CCB!! http://www.meteo.psu...2z/cmcloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 GGEM also has about 9" at TTN. I'm liking this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 ECM holds, hearing slightly colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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