famartin Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 and would not be shocked to see it go back by 12z.. just the Nam being the Nam. No, it was the NAM correcting itself to reality. As you can see by the 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It's good to see all the models coming to a consensus - with the exception of the GFS, of course, which is still lost about the front end dump scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 No, it was the NAM correcting itself to reality. As you can see by the 12Z. +1.... Also the poster who said this is like a mini Jan 2011 I actually really agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Thump snow...dry slot/snizzle/drizzle...then who knows. Ray, this is sounding like your idea from a few days ago of a 1/25/2000 repeat (minus the surprise). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Yes I think how quickly we flip to sleet/rain and how much, if anything, we get on the backside will determine if this storm is memorable in the right way for PHL. NAM spits out like 1.0-1.2" of precip by 10am tomorrow......IF we could somehow manage to keep that all snow then we'd be golden no matter what happens the rest of the day. But my guess is we flip somewhere around 8am. The back end is the wild card, there MAY be some mesoscale bands in that CCB that get a huge addition to their snowfall totals if that 500mb low is stronger and more west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It's good to see all the models coming to a consensus - with the exception of the GFS, of course, which is still lost about the front end dump scenario. The GFS actually got wetter at 6z for the front end dump, I think its catching up quite well personally. Obviously the NAM will always be wetter in these situations with big time VVs it likes to go crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 So far I see nothing to change my initial 6-12 call for TTN. And I might be lazy enough to not narrow that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 Clown map for 12Z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 So I think its safe to say the rgem is all alone? I guess the ukie is in the same camp though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Wow that clown map is a good reality check for this area but 6-8 falls right in line with the NWS WSW message. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 4k nam is much colder fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 4KM has been a weenies dream for the burbs, the past 4 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEchestercountydude Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 So I think its safe to say the rgem is all alone? I guess the ukie is in the same camp though. I only see it out to hr 23 so far and it looks beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEchestercountydude Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 At hour 27 Philly on nw is heavy snow but the mix line is really close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 At hour 27 Philly on nw is heavy snow but the mix line is really closewhich model? Rgem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEchestercountydude Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 which model? Rgem? Yes. Sorry should of clarified. Looks like we change over to some sleet somewhere between hours 27-29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Clown map for 12Z NAM When a NAM clown map doesn't show double digit snowfall within a 100 miles of PHL, it is definitely time to temper expectations. Just the same, given how often PHL has found a way to bullseye just about every time it snows this winter it is hard to accept that this one just might be a normal, run-of-the-mill, Philadelphia snowstorm with a few inch thump up front, some slop and rain in the middle, and a few flakes at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 RGEM also has Philly & the burbs getting extra snow (A LOT for the burbs) from the CCB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Going to be a really close call for phl to see if they get that 4th snowfall of greater than 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEchestercountydude Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 RGEM also has Philly & the burbs getting extra snow (A LOT for the burbs) from the CCB Yeah we're getting smoked at hour 40 by it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GFS is trending deeper with the shortwave so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 RGEM also has Philly & the burbs getting extra snow (A LOT for the burbs) from the CCB If I weren't married, I'd make the 12Z RGEM my Valentine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Clown map for 12Z NAM I'd like for someone to compare the "clown map" with the weatherbell maps so we can see just how ridiculous their maps truly are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 RGEM also has Philly & the burbs getting extra snow (A LOT for the burbs) from the CCB This is just me, but I always get nervous counting on the CCB beyond a few hours out. Otherwise, there are just too many things that can go wrong before it gets to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEchestercountydude Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Going to be a really close call for phl to see if they get that 4th snowfall of greater than 6" Looks like 30mm at philly here from the rgem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 RGEM is basically a Boxing Day redemption storm for E PA. Climatologically and synoptically unlikely, unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Looks like 30mm at philly here from the rgem. I have an embarassing tendency to look stupid when converting to English Standard units, but that is only a bit more than one inch, right? EDIT: It seems I got the conversion right, but the 30 mm was liquid equivalent so, assuming 10:1, that would be more like a 12" accumulation. Like I said, I have a tendency to look stupid when I do this. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Gfs is warmer and farther w....rgem is by itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEchestercountydude Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 1.20 One mm is .04 so multiply that by 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Looking the rgem more closely....its not so hot with the 850 low over delmarva....that's a recipe for rain in phl and nearby burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.