thedude11 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Looks like that map brings the 10" all the way down to the city, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 EC hasn't changed much as far as I can tell. Still the same thermal problems, maybe not quite as extensive... mixing stays just southeast of ABE but does still reach UKT, for example. My estimate from the EC for TTN is 9". Pick an airport and after I finish shopping I'll give you my estimate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 10-14" ECM/NAM/GGEM/UKIE vs GFS Wow, awesome.Sounds like it was a sweet run for a lot of people. ECM's consistency is very hard to ignore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimmosk Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Pick an airport and after I finish shopping I'll give you my estimate. The joys of late night on a low-traffic board: Ray consents to give IMBY estimates! PHL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 CCB hangs back into eastern PA that has to happen or those totals cut in half, central jersey doesn't get into it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 The joys of late night on a low-traffic board: Ray consents to give IMBY estimates! PHL? Maybe a smidge less... 8-9". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 6Z NAM gives up on the all-snow solution along I-95 in a big way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 6Z NAM gives up on the all-snow solution along I-95 in a big way. Any impact on your outlook? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 6Z NAM gives up on the all-snow solution along I-95 in a big way. and would not be shocked to see it go back by 12z.. just the Nam being the Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I think PHL needs to hope that most of that 8" happens overnight because we're going to flip to at least sleet early tomorrow morning and may not flip back to snow until much later in the day. Way to close to the coast on most guidance now. The 12z NAM was way overdone and 6z took a major step towards other guidance in cutting snow totals. It will be interesting and likely very frustrating to watch it unfold. Maybe a smidge less... 8-9". Maybe a smidge less... 8-9". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 However the 06zGFS came in significantly wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GFS dumps a lot of the moisture during the CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Wxsim for NW Chester County with 6z GFS/NAM combo data - made my best estimates based on the change to sleet for a while ...3 to 1 ratio?? total precip all frozen is now up to 1.44" Snow arrives 1am temp 18.3 4am S+ temp 19.3 (2.0" snow so far) 7am S+ 21.4 (4.0") 10am S+ 24.2 (6.5") 130pm S and IP mix 27.7 (8.5") 3pm S and IP mix (9.0") 7pm Moderate IP (10.0") 10pm 28.3 Heavy IP and snow (11.0") 1am S+ 28.3 (12.0") 4am light snow 28.7 (12.5") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 GFS dumps a lot of the moisture during the CCB. As mentioned about 0z, it's trend towards earlier bombogenesis...and slowing down is continuing. 2 runs in a row. people might need to be more pumped about the back end, if GFS is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 As mentioned about 0z, it's trend towards earlier bombogenesis...and slowing down is continuing. 2 runs in a row. people might need to be more pumped about the back end, if GFS is right. Well, verbatim on the GFS it looks like the mid levels are a bit late cooling in Philly, but we'll see, idk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Wxsim for NW Chester County with 6z GFS/NAM combo data - made my best estimates based on the change to sleet for a while ...3 to 1 ratio?? total precip all frozen is now up to 1.44" Snow arrives 1am temp 18.3 4am S+ temp 19.3 (2.0" snow so far) 7am S+ 21.4 (4.0") 10am S+ 24.2 (6.5") 130pm S and IP mix 27.7 (8.5") 3pm S and IP mix (9.0") 7pm Moderate IP (10.0") 10pm 28.3 Heavy IP and snow (11.0") 1am S+ 28.3 (12.0") 4am light snow 28.7 (12.5") Different locations aside, I'm thinking (hoping) the 4.5" you have between 4am and 10am is on the low side! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 THe snow on the backside as the 500mb is closed off and tilting negatively for a time, could be the wild card for NW sections especially for snow Thursday Night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 CCB showing up on the GFS ensembles, check out P008 & 10 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSPRSNE_6z/f48.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I worry about the CCB for E PA. IT's got a couple things working against it. First, the timing of the 500mb low closure has to be such that the energy can wrap successfully SW and hang there. Second, that kicker, eloquently discussed by earthlight and jetspens in the NYC subforum, may very well serve to "squish" things out this way. I've got hope, but we're rooting for an underdog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 nice to see the gfs come around, finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 06 rgem has upped area snow. Good front and back end. Track very similar to euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 for once, LV stands to be in the 12+ jackpot. Yet posters trie to crush the LV hopes with statements like it has moved east - up the 95 corridor, no back lash, no deformation zone etc. Please let us have our enjoyment now because as famartin states in his brilliant anologies- we just do not get the big ones here in the LV like in Philly and I would like to see at least one snowfall over perform Philly or the Monmouth county area and have some bragging rights. Thank you i'd agree with you, but only if people's opinions regarding the evolution of the storm actually affected the eventual outcome...like telepathically or something...unitl then, it's probably better practice for folks to simply give their opinions about what the models are showing without worrying about whether it makes someone else sad...thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
windvane Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 i'd agree with you, but only if people's opinions over the evolution of the storm actually affected the eventual outcome...like telepathically or something...unitl then, it's probably better practice for folks to simply give their opinions about what the models are showing without worrying about whether it makes someone else sad... Yes, and I think we should all think about Voyager who gets screwed in most events the past 4 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Yes, and I think we should all think about Voyager who gets screwed in most events the past 4 years i'm sending my telepathic thoughts to the storm right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Nam appears warmer...not surprising. We are nearing a concensus I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 12z NAM run doesn't sound promising for PHL. Mid levels are a torch for a good part of the day tomorrow as centers pass too far north and west. We are going to get majorly dry slotted for a while. 850s are not quick to crash back down either. PHL really needs to clean up on the front end stuff tonight because by 8am I think we're pinging or flat out raining. Maybe catch a bit on the back end but models are usually way overdone on that stuff for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thedude11 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 So both the GFS and NAM spit out over 1" QPF along EPA - great agreement finally. It sounds like some models feature the dry slot from hell, others with consistent precip rates throughout the entire storm. I'm still not sure what to expect.. You see the RGEM spitting out over a foot of snow in the city.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSchwake28 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Nam appears warmer...not surprising. We are nearing a concensus I think. Yep I think we're looking at a decent front end dump, followed by some rain showers/snizzle, and then probably some wrap around snow to finish. Big question now is how quickly does it warm up tomorrow morning? Do we remain snow while precip is heavy and then change over later in the morning while we are dry-slotting, or does the changeover occur sooner? I'm leaning towards remaining mostly snow at least here justt west of the city until mid morning with a solid 5-10" up until then. Maybe another 1-3 on the backend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The back end is the wild card, there MAY be some mesoscale bands in that CCB that get a huge addition to their snowfall totals if that 500mb low is stronger and more west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEchestercountydude Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I really think this ends up like a smaller version of 1/26/11. Except this time more on the initial dump and less from the CCB. Also on the nam the dry slot looks to save us from much rain in the nw burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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