Harbourton Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 All of the models have come west and warmed since 12z. May be a Penn State special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 18z GFS nearly identical to ECM track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 EURO initizilized very weird, says current snow depth is 21" in the LV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 18z GFS nearly identical to ECM track the first dark blue on nceps gfs is .50" correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 the first dark blue on nceps gfs is .50" correct? yup why is it that dry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 yup why is it that dry? Not sure but the 850 0 line backs up 50 miles west past the Delaware between hrs 51 -54 on the 18z GFS. May be a dry slot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Not sure but the 850 0 line backs up 50 miles west past the Delaware between hrs 51 -54 on the 18z GFS. May be a dry slot? dry slot drizzle all the way to allentown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I feel bad for the interior PA weenies that may finally be getting that on the coast low and how little QPF this is throwing out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Incase the mods don't know. People need to know the exact URL just to click on these threads. (forums doesn't even display anymore when you logout and login) Surprised it's gotten this bad, that they can't even handle these hits. 18z GFS = rain storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I feel bad for the interior PA weenies that may finally be getting that on the coast low and how little QPF this is throwing out there I'd still be surprised, if the low was on the coast, for there not to be substantial snow in the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'd still be surprised, if the low was on the coast, for there not to be substantial snow in the interior. Agree. Mid - Chesapeake Bay would be ideal for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 This is going to be bad for us. Still too much ice and snow on the tree limbs. This wet snow plastered to the limbs along with wind is going to do more damage. The 3 of us are in the same precarious boat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 EURO is no good for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 picking up 10 gals of gas for generator, just in case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Latest Wxsim with 18z data with GFS/NAM for NW Chester County (unfortunately our weak American models continue to play catch up) Snow arrives 1am temp 18.7 7am Heavy Snow temp 22.1 (4.0" so far) 10am S+ temp 25.1 (6.0") 1pm S+ temp 28.0 (7.5") 2pm Snow begins to mix with IP temp 28.7 8pm IP/Snow mix 28.5 1030pm Snow/IP mix ends with 0.96" all frozen with around 8.5" of total Snow and Sleet accumulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Predictions for tonight's 0z runs? (NAM and GFS) I say the warming trend continues.. since were stuck between Highs, and models usually intensify strong coastals a day or so before the event. So yea, a stronger low....more inland track....and more rain. Maybe no more winter storm watches by morning. (epic snow out here though) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Latest Wxsim with 18z data with GFS/NAM for NW Chester County (unfortunately our weak American models continue to play catch up) Snow arrives 1am temp 18.7 7am Heavy Snow temp 22.1 (4.0" so far) 10am S+ temp 25.1 (6.0") 1pm S+ temp 28.0 (7.5") 2pm Snow begins to mix with IP temp 28.7 8pm IP/Snow mix 28.5 1030pm Snow/IP mix ends with 0.96" all frozen with around 8.5" of total Snow and Sleet accumulation I'm uncertain about precip type but I feel good about the over on 0.96 qpf for you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherQ Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I know I am totally getting yelled at for this but the ocean temps off Del, OCMD and Jersey are at or near freezing. Usually when we get these Miller A or Bs part of the warm slug comes from an ocean sitting at or above 40 degrees. Given the serious cold this Winter and given every dynamic in this storm or dynamic degree counts.....doesn't an ocean at freezing suggest a colder moisture train at the lower levels? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 I know I am totally getting yelled at for this but the ocean temps off Del, OCMD and Jersey are at or near freezing. Usually when we get these Miller A or Bs part of the warm slug comes from an ocean sitting at or above 40 degrees. Given the serious cold this Winter and given every dynamic in this storm or dynamic degree counts.....doesn't an ocean at freezing suggest a colder moisture train at the lower levels? It's not the surface you need to worry about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mister eric Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I know I am totally getting yelled at for this but the ocean temps off Del, OCMD and Jersey are at or near freezing. Usually when we get these Miller A or Bs part of the warm slug comes from an ocean sitting at or above 40 degrees. Given the serious cold this Winter and given every dynamic in this storm or dynamic degree counts.....doesn't an ocean at freezing suggest a colder moisture train at the lower levels? Not quite that cold except right at the shoreline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It's not the surface you need to worry about. agree with this 100%.....still wonder if there might be more of a freezing rain problem than currently forecast, especially just NW of philly, or even in NW part of the city like last wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 quick comparison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 fwiw the NAM does have new data ingested Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Sounds like the NAM is a home run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 NAM is an I-95 jackpot, freezing line well SE of Delaware River until all meaningful precip has fallen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 NAM is an I-95 jackpot, freezing line well SE of Delaware River until all meaningful precip has fallen. Sounds a little too good to be true. Or it's the Nam being the "NAM" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 nam has been consistant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I'm all in with the new-data-in-the-nam in tandem with the cold ocean water theories...I fully expect 12 inches, minimum... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattMal88 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 NAM steady as a rock! Slightly warmer as it looks like the 540 line briefly crosses the Delaware river so I guess some sleet will mix in but 850s look good for philly nw for the duration of the storm. Im hoping for the NAM to pull it off here in NE philly because everything else looks sloppy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 nam not giving up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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