JCT777 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Ah ok. I'm actually in Collegeville PA (Central Montomery County) right now. So I'm less worried about mixing... Nevertheless, I'm optimistic about this one. Looks to me like a qpf bomb with limited mixing issues for NW of I-95. I think that 20 miles on either side of I-95 is going to be the battleground for serious mixing issues. I'm buying into the amped solution. I don't think this comes much more west, but I think that the CMC and EURO have had an excellent handle on this system and have been very consistent. The NAM and GFS have been all over the place, I especially don't get all the love for the NAM on this system. I think those wishing for a coastal crusher for this storm are grasping for straws... We shall see. I'm in Spring Mount, and on those models we both go to non-snow for a while IF the 12z GGEM and Euro are correct. Both are warmer and west of where they were at 0z (in which we were pretty much all snow). Personally, I'm not sure whether the wamer and west representations on their 12z runs are correct. I'm hoping that the reality is somewhere between the 12z GGEM/Euro and the 12z NAM. It'll be interesting to see what tonight's 0z runs look like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 This map makes little sense given what I'm seeing with the GGEM thermals. Pulled this from the NYC forum. EDIT: Seems generous from looking at the maps.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Ah ok. I'm actually in Collegeville PA (Central Montomery County) right now. So I'm less worried about mixing... Nevertheless, I'm optimistic about this one. Looks to me like a qpf bomb with limited mixing issues for NW of I-95. I think that 20 miles on either side of I-95 is going to be the battleground for serious mixing issues. I'm buying into the amped solution. I don't think this comes much more west, but I think that the CMC and EURO have had an excellent handle on this system and have been very consistent. The NAM and GFS have been all over the place, I especially don't get all the love for the NAM on this system. I think those wishing for a coastal crusher for this storm are grasping for straws... We shall see. I lived in Royersford for a bit....about 8-10 miles W up Rt 422 from you. It just about always changed over when Philly reports rain. May take an hour or two but eventually...ping ping then rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Ray, the date ends 2/15....is this including any potential snow on Saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 OK, I looked a little harder, and maybe that map is keying on the QPF bomb the GEM drops right at the tail end. It seems unrealistic to me, but I guess its not a bad representation of the model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'm in Spring Mount, and on those models we both go to non-snow for a while IF the 12z GGEM and Euro are correct. Both are warmer and west of where they were at 0z (in which we were pretty much all snow). Personally, I'm not sure whether the wamer and west representations on their 12z runs are correct. I'm hoping that the reality is somewhere between the 12z GGEM/Euro and the 12z NAM. It'll be interesting to see what tonight's 0z runs look like. Right, it's definitely less ideal than 0z. And yeah if you do a blend, then we are golden. I know that the NWS is going with a track 30 miles east of the low placement on the EURO/GGEM, I know some people argue for that correction due to the SSTs. I lived in Royersford for a bit....about 8-10 miles W up Rt 422 from you. It just about always changed over when Philly reports rain. May take an hour or two but eventually...ping ping then rain. True. But given the potential heavy rates with this storm, it might make a difference, and there's a chance the rain/snow line doesn't make it to us. If the west trend continues than even our area is in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Those of us who live within 20 miles of I-95 (and those further southeast of course) are very aware of (and sensitive to) what can happen when a coastal storm is too close to the coast (as in right on the coast), to our south, between say Virginia Beach and Ocean City, MD. It usually means rain here. If the latest Euro verifies, track wise, our best hope near Philly is for good accumulation on the front end and hopefully a bonus on the back end. This is why there is a lower excitement level for some when the models show the storm track trending westward from what was ideal for this area toward what is great for Harrisburg to Scranton. The 0z Euro was a pretty good model run for many in this forum. Now some of us are looking at possibly less snow and more rain. Of course there will be IMBY analysis, especially for those who enjoy snow. It's the way of things. The good part is that we should all get some snow, and things (model runs and weather) can change obviously. And it is reassuring when Ray is sticking to 6 to 12" for Trenton . Having said all that, I've been made to feel silly in the past trying to predict the weather, so mostly I'm taking a wait and see attitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'm not even going to look at it. Its a shiny toy for TV viewers. Not to be trusted. Thanks. I kind of suspected that myself. It did look cool though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 MA forum barking in a good way about the NAM.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 MA forum barking in a good way about the NAM.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The 18z NAM does look very nice for most of our region. Of course, it is the 18z NAM. I'll put a lot more stock into the upcoming 0z NAM (and the rest of the 0z suite). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 MA forum barking in a good way about the NAM.... I wouldn't believe it and probably throw it out the window but we're starting to get into it's decent/better range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 NAM shows 24hr event 06Z Thurs to 06Z Friday in SEPA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I wouldn't put much stock in that NAM run. The fact that it's not bombing the low when all of the other models are is a huge red flag at the moment. I will consider it more during it's 0Z run tonight, but until one of the global models starts to resemble it, I am disregarding it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattMal88 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The NAM just refuses to close off at 500 mb, which being in NE philly, im kinda rooting for at this point because we look to be all snow in that scenario vs the bombing euro that changes us over to sleet and rain. Then again it is the 18z nam lol although we're almost in its useful range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Just started hearing the alerts from NWS chiming in on my phone. Warning for south of I-195 and Watch to the north. They kept it simple which is smart, get people thinking about it while more data comes in and regionally fine tuning can be done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smitty97 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 new briefing and map is up. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Just saw Mt. Holly changed the watch to a warning for (far) SEPA, etc. Calling for 6 to 8", possibly 8" to 10" in higher elevations. If it verifies I'll be content considering the softening of expectations since late this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Those of us in SEPA and DE need the NAM to be right to stay all snow at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Everyone in our region who wants all snow is surely hoping that the 18z RGEM is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Those of us in SEPA and DE need the NAM to be right to stay all snow at this point. lol....you never know. The NAM has been close on some events, at it's range (24-48 hours), this winter, has it not? This is the 1st true nor'easter however, so it will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The NWS snow forecast map appears to show Western Chester County and portions of Northern Montgomery County in a 10" to 14" zone. I see in the forecast discussion they are discounting ZR as a precip type and going with IP (good news in this area where my trees are still encrusted in ice) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Everyone in our region who wants all snow is surely hoping that the 18z RGEM is wrong. Haven't seen it - what's it showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 4pm Ch6 snowfall map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Haven't seen it - what's it showing? From several other forums, it shows a 988 MB low in the Chesapeake Bay at 48 hrs. Well west of the 12z GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The NWS snow forecast map appears to show Western Chester County and portions of Northern Montgomery County in a 10" to 14" zone. I see in the forecast discussion they are discounting ZR as a precip type and going with IP (good news in this area where my trees are still encrusted in ice) In the discussion it said they were pretty much taking out the freezing rain, but that heavy wet snow with winds up to 20-30 mph Thursday morning could be a problem. I agree about the freezing rain, even if the ZR last week did do a lot of trimming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 From several other forums, it shows a 988 MB low in the Chesapeake Bay at 48 hrs. Well west of the 12z GGEM. Thanks. We surely don't want it there, yikes. Still hoping for some heavy front end snow whatever the track. What's causing all the westward movement in the models? I know things have slowed down, what would need to happen to keep the low off the coast a bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The NWS snow forecast map appears to show Western Chester County and portions of Northern Montgomery County in a 10" to 14" zone. I see in the forecast discussion they are discounting ZR as a precip type and going with IP (good news in this area where my trees are still encrusted in ice) This is going to be bad for us. Still too much ice and snow on the tree limbs. This wet snow plastered to the limbs along with wind is going to do more damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Agreed Iceman - I am having my generator serviced tomorrow (plus having him rewire so I get heat now on the 1st floor instead of the 2nd....little oversight on my part when building house). They mentioned they are getting swamped with calls with people wanting to be sure their generator is in shape. Paul This is going to be bad for us. Still too much ice and snow on the tree limbs. This wet snow plastered to the limbs along with wind is going to do more damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Plan of the Day 000 NOUS42 KNHC 101620 REPRPD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1120 AM EST MON 10 FEBRUARY 2014 SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD) VALID 11/1100Z TO 12/1100Z FEBRUARY 2014 WSPOD NUMBER.....13-073 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. FLIGHT 0NE -- TEAL 71-- A. A66/ DROP 9(28.2N 93.8W)/ 12/0000Z B. AFXXX 05WSA TRACK66 C. 11/2000Z D. 10 DROPS ON TRACK AS PUBLISHED E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 12/0200Z 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A. A62/ DROP 7(34.0N 72.3W)/ 13/0000Z $$ JWP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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