famartin Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 The typical scenario with changeovers is for the models to underestimate the rapidity of the warm air aloft. Just keep it in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
specialsk Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Hi everyone, Longtime lurker, enjoy the banter... finally signed up. Forgive if question is not appropriate for this thread...Intellicast radar has "future" loop. Shows torrential rain for S NJ starting at 8:30 am and overtaking the region throughout the remainder of the day. What model(s) is this based on ? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 On 2/13/2014 at 12:17 AM, famartin said: The typical scenario with changeovers is for the models to underestimate the rapidity of the warm air aloft. Just keep it in mind. Yea, I'm starting to get pretty concerned Philly may only end up with 4-6", then heavy sleet, then dry slot, and back end snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 On 2/13/2014 at 12:17 AM, famartin said: The typical scenario with changeovers is for the models to underestimate the rapidity of the warm air aloft. Just keep it in mind. I usually check the temps/S/E and along the shore once the precip begins and see the progress of the changeover...if they changeover quick then...usually not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 On 2/13/2014 at 12:17 AM, famartin said: The typical scenario with changeovers is for the models to underestimate the rapidity of the warm air aloft. Just keep it in mind. by the same token they are often overdone on the warming at the surface....which is why I think sleet and zr will be what we flip to, and not rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 On 2/13/2014 at 12:28 AM, GD0815 said: by the same token they are often overdone on the warming at the surface....which is why I think sleet and zr will be what we flip to, and not rain. The surface winds will have a bearing on how the changeover progresses especially with a solid snow pack PHL points north and west. Also in conjunction the exact track of the low. Now wouldn't it be something for the storm to travel along the Sea Surface Temp Boundary.... remember storms take the track of least resistance no? It is obvious that surface winds either North, NNE, or NE are much better than ENE, E, or ESE, or SE in that order.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 On 2/13/2014 at 12:28 AM, GD0815 said: by the same token they are often overdone on the warming at the surface....which is why I think sleet and zr will be what we flip to, and not rain. Geez louise...you think you sniffed out an icing situation that the NWS didn't? There is no surface high to lock in cold, the track is wrong for ZR, the surface low is too powerful. This is not a ZR setup for anyone save a small stripe perhaps along the route 1 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 On 2/13/2014 at 12:28 AM, GD0815 said: by the same token they are often overdone on the warming at the surface Quite true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 On 2/13/2014 at 12:59 AM, TheManWithNoFace said: Geez louise...you think you sniffed out an icing situation that the NWS didn't? There is no surface high to lock in cold, the track is wrong for ZR, the surface low is too powerful. This is not a ZR setup for anyone save a small stripe perhaps along the route 1 corridor. Typically with coastals, sleet is more abundant than freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THEREALTOR1 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The Low down in the GOM seems to be about 50 miles SW of where it was forecasted to be at this time, will this have any bearing on the potential future track ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 On 2/13/2014 at 1:27 AM, THEREALTOR1 said: The Low down in the GOM seems to be about 50 miles SW of where it was forecasted to be at this time, will this have any bearing on the potential future track ? I don't think so,on your second map, the WPC prefered tracks map shows the track way inside the 40/70 benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 On 2/13/2014 at 1:27 AM, THEREALTOR1 said: The Low down in the GOM seems to be about 50 miles SW of where it was forecasted to be at this time, will this have any bearing on the potential future track ? Ideally you would want the low to track to just inside the blue dot.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 On 2/13/2014 at 1:18 AM, famartin said: Typically with coastals, sleet is more abundant than freezing rain. I agree with this, I was just grouping them together for the purposes of the discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Latest HRRR goes hard for SNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 On 2/13/2014 at 12:59 AM, TheManWithNoFace said: Geez louise...you think you sniffed out an icing situation that the NWS didn't? There is no surface high to lock in cold, the track is wrong for ZR, the surface low is too powerful. This is not a ZR setup for anyone save a small stripe perhaps along the route 1 corridor. My point was that I am somewhat skeptical that I-95 north and west flips to plain rain during this storm,. Maybe I am wrong, maybe I am right, but no I don't think I am smarter than NWS. By the way, when the precip is light, I don't think it is out of the realm that we might see some ZR, and given the damage in much of the area last week, I thought it was at least worth mentioning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 On 2/13/2014 at 1:48 AM, GD0815 said: My point was that I am somewhat skeptical that I-95 north and west flips to plain rain during this storm,. Maybe I am wrong, maybe I am right, but no I don't think I am smarter than NWS. By the way, when the precip is light, I don't think it is out of the realm that we might see some ZR, and given the damage in much of the area last week, I thought it was at least worth mentioning. While some freezing rain is possible, I am in agreement that ice accretion should be minimal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 NAM looks better for us slightly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 On 2/13/2014 at 1:59 AM, famartin said: While some freezing rain is possible, I am in agreement that ice accretion should be minimal. Agreed, im more worried about heavy wet snow on these trees---i really don't feel like losing power again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 New NAM has about 11" at TTN... still in my 6-12 range but it makes me nervous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 On 2/13/2014 at 2:25 AM, famartin said: New NAM has about 11" at TTN... still in my 6-12 range but it makes me nervous. I think where the ccb sets up will determine whether TTN can go over 12 inches. I like your forecast, I'd definitely go higher end but I think you will verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Ray, which is more reliable the 4km NAM or the regular NAM...its amazing the differences they have with the CCB on the back end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 You can see the epic band of precip forming over C VA, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 On 2/13/2014 at 2:29 AM, Highzenberg said: You can see the epic band of precip forming over C VA, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 On 2/13/2014 at 2:28 AM, Highzenberg said: Ray, which is more reliable the 4km NAM or the regular NAM...its amazing the differences they have with the CCB on the back end. Greg Heavener posted a rule he goes by over on the other board: Multiply 4KM NAM precip by .5 to .75. In other words, cut by about a third. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Ray one last IMBY question. After we flip, when do we go back to snow...assuming we do flip back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
p626808 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 On 2/13/2014 at 2:33 AM, Violentweatherfan said: Capturehz.PNG Sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 On 2/12/2014 at 8:22 PM, Highzenberg said: The NAM is awesome for the front snows. From 6z to 12z we get like an inch QPF of paste snow, going to be coming down in absolute convective buckets before we likely dry slot around 8-9am, thats awesome for the city. Regardless of the wrap around. Front end thumpogenesis! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 On 2/13/2014 at 2:39 AM, Violentweatherfan said: Ray one last IMBY question. After we flip, when do we go back to snow...assuming we do flip back. Reasonably good consensus on it being tomorrow evening. Probably 8-11PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I guess my question was ray not about QPF output on the 4km NAm, just the stark differences on tis placement of the CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 0 z nam qpf through hr 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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